Packers 53-man roster prediction 2018

McGinn Break down :
WIDE RECEIVERS (5 to 7)
Locks –
Davante Adams.
Good bets – Geronimo Allison, Randall Cobb.
On the fence – Jake Kumerow, J’Mon Moore, Trevor Davis, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, DeAngelo Yancey.
Long shots – Adonis Jennings, Kyle Lewis.
Overview: On July 24, one day before players reported to St. Norbert College for the start of training camp, it appeared that Kumerow, despite an impressive off-season, still ranked 10th among the 10 wide receivers. That Kumerow, in just 58 snaps and with only 10 targets over 1 ½ games, finished fourth among NFL players in receiving yards with 190 offered testimony to his remarkable climb to prominence.
“He may be their second best wide receiver,” an executive in personnel said Aug. 21. “In this game (Pittsburgh) there was no comparison with the draft picks. This guy seemed confident. He ran good routes. He looks big and extends for the ball. They got a steal there.
“You assume he can’t run because he’s white. He broke a tackle on a deep out and outran the two safeties. I assumed the guy would tie up and they’d catch him. They didn’t.”
Kumerow’s only mistake was taking a needless, head-long dive into the end zone after his 82-yard touchdown against the Steelers. He missed the final two games with a shoulder injury but it doesn’t seem serious.
Since Kumerow entered the league as a free agent with the Bengals in 2015 his only signing bonus was the $5,000 that May. Contrast that to the signing bonuses received by the wideouts drafted in rounds 4, 5 and 6 this spring: Moore ($418,356), Valdez-Scantling ($217,556) and St. Brown ($118,408).
Moore was targeted 24 times in exhibition games, catching nine for 102 yards. Valdez-Scantling, in 14 targets, caught nine for 157. St. Brown, in 18 targets, finished 6-83.
Moore dropped a ton of balls at Missouri in 2016 and displayed wholly unreliable hands this summer. He showed some promise after the catch but didn’t track deep balls well.
Valdez-Scantling looks like a straight-line speed guy with ordinary quickness and change of direction. As a kickoff returner (eight attempts, 18.4), he danced east-west instead of powering into the lane.
St. Brown has fabulous size but isn’t quick and figures to have problems separating against good cornerbacks.
Yancey, a fifth-round pick in 2017 from Purdue, began camp with a flourish, especially from the slot. He was healthy all summer and afforded tremendous opportunity, but in 142 snaps his production was a scant three catches for 11 yards.
TIGHT ENDS (3 to 4)
Locks –
Jimmy Graham.
On the fence – Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Lance Kendricks, Emanuel Byrd.
Long shots – Kevin Rader, Ryan Smith.
Overview: Tonyan, a second-year free agent from FCS Indiana State, and Byrd, another second-year man (Marshall), developed to such an extent that old pros Lewis and Kendricks aren’t guaranteed roster berths.
The 34-year-old Lewis, who ran 4.85 out of UCLA in 2006, remains a physical specimen at 6-6 ½, 275. The Packers billed him as a point-of-attack blocker and red-zone threat after signing him for one-year, $2.1 million ($500,000 guaranteed) in late May.
“I think he’s finished,” one scout said Aug. 26. “Looks like he’s got no speed or quickness. If somebody jams him on the release he’ll have problems. He still can catch the ball. I question his speed. Always have.”
Kendricks, 30, played 64 snaps to Lewis’ 44 and still moves rather well. He’s an undersized H-back who tries as a blocker and can gain stalemates. There’s little chance, however, that Gutekunst and McCarthy have forgotten what would have been a 17-yard touchdown in Oakland if Kendricks had made a better adjustment.
The 6-5 Tonyan ran 4.58 at 231 pounds in March 2017. He also posted a vertical jump of 35 inches and a 10-5 broad jump.
A former quarterback for the Sycamores, Tonyan converted to wide receiver in 2014 before the Detroit Lions moved him to tight end as a rookie free agent last year. These days, he’s in the 250-pound range and still the beautiful-looking athlete that he always was.
“I’d probably keep him over Lewis,” another scout said. “He has some talent. Very interesting guy. He doesn’t have much strength as a blocker but he tries to block. At the end of the (Pittsburgh) game he had a couple down blocks which surprised me.”
Byrd (6-2, 240) clocked 4.64 and had his arms measured at 33 5/8 inches in March 2017. He’s not as big a target as Tonyan but is a similar athlete and impressed one personnel man as the better blocker.
OFFENSIVE LINE (8 to 10)
Locks –
T David Bakhtiari, G Lane Taylor, C Corey Linsley, T Bryan Bulaga.
Good bets – G-C Justin McCray, T Jason Spriggs, G-C Lucas Patrick.
On the fence – T-G Byron Bell, T-G Adam Pankey, T Kyle Murphy, T Alex Light.
Long shots – C-G Dillon Day, G Kofi Amichia, C Austin Davis.
Did not report – G-T Cole Madison.
Overview: McCray played poorly in Pittsburgh before leaving with a calf injury. Patrick replaced him at right guard in Oakland and was adequate, perhaps putting a degree of pressure on McCray to shape up against Kansas City.
Although McCray was detected holding on one of his 25 snaps, he played with an aggressiveness that wasn’t seen nearly enough by the backups this summer. One scout said he would have cut McCray after the Steelers game, but the Packers won’t do that because they need him to start at the berth held by Jahri Evans in 2017 and T.J. Lang from 2013-’16.
Spriggs had a rough practice at Lambeau Field and didn’t get on the field until the third quarter in the exhibition opener at right tackle behind Bell. Moving exclusively to left tackle for the last 2 ½ games, Spriggs kept improving and would seem to have cinched the swing tackle job.
“Best game ever,” one scout after watching Spriggs against Oakland. “He actually competed. Had some pancakes. He’s not very strong. Couldn’t play guard because he’d get outmuscled. But after Spriggs they don’t have anybody.”
Murphy logged 152 snaps at the tackles in the first three games before sitting out Thursday night with an ankle injury. His third summer was a flop. He allowed four sacks, three knockdowns and six hurries.
“He’s awful,” one scout said. “His problem is he doesn’t have the quickness to get to the corner. He’s always a count slow so guys beat him off the line and he has to turn and chase them. He was tough in college (Stanford) but now he doesn’t seem tough.”
Patrick is a battler capable of playing the three interior positions. Another center-guard, Day played 196 snaps to Patrick’s 129 but not at the same level as the pugnacious Patrick.
Bell, Pankey and Light appear to be the next-best players but it’s possible the Packers won’t keep any of them.
Bell, 29, and Pankey, 24, each proved capable of lining up at four positions. Bell has 77 starts for three teams. Pankey gave up 6 ½ pressures (defined as the total of sacks, knockdowns and hurries) in a team-high 229 snaps compared to 4 ½ for Bell in 130 snaps.
“Pankey played OK at times as a right tackle,” said one scout. “He just doesn’t have that quickness for a guard … You talk about soft, Bell catches and gets pushed.”
Light, a rookie free agent from Richmond, showed range and a top-notch kick step playing primarily left tackle all summer. He needs practice-squad time but might be athletic enough to contribute in a year or two.
Amichia, a sixth-round pick in 2017, isn’t a square player and consequently get pushed around too much. It just didn’t work.
Madison qualifies as the worst of Gutekunst’s 11-man draft class because he hasn’t reported since participating in the off-season.
QUARTERBACKS (2 or 3)
Locks –
Aaron Rodgers.
On the fence – DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle.
Overview: As strange as it might seem, Boyle was in position to challenge Kizer for the No. 2 job until his loose two-interception second half in Kansas City.
Despite Kizer’s 15 starts as a rookie, Browns coach Hue Jackson and new GM John Dorsey didn’t even want him around for another year. The Packers determined that Hundley would never be the answer, but after his first exposure in Green Bay Kizer might be nearing that judgment as well.
“Kizer is physically gifted but some of the decisions he makes are totally stupid,” one personnel man said. “He should have had a couple picks in the (Oakland) game. Something’s wrong with the guy. He’s got a nice motion, a quick release, a strong arm and he is mobile. He looks like a disaster waiting to happen.”
Despite a checkered collegiate career Boyle has elevated his game in Green Bay. He’s got a smooth release, a big arm and an air of confidence unbefitting his background.
“He looked like he had a presence out there,” one scout said. “Against nothing people he showed some poise.”
Unlike the scrambling Taysom Hill, a free agent last year, Boyle is a pure pocket passer with comparable arm strength. The Packers’ attempt to bring Hill back on the practice squad 12 months ago blew up when the Saints put in a waiver claim.
By the way, Hill overcame a four-turnover game in Game 2 this summer to finish with a 90.9 passer rating and 161 yards rushing and two touchdowns in 19 carries (8.5).
The Packers really like Boyle. The guess is they’ll keep him on the 53.
RUNNING BACKS (4 or 5)
Locks –
RB Jamaal Williams.
Good bets – RB Ty Montgomery.
On the fence – RB Devante Mays, FB Aaron Ripkowski, RB Joel Bouagnon, FB Joe Kerridge.
Long shots – RB LeShun Daniels, RB Bronson Hill.
Suspended (Games 1-2) – RB Aaron Jones.
Overview: Jones was outstanding against the Chiefs. After the suspension expires, he and Williams figure to form a 1-2 partnership.
Despite a pedestrian summer, Montgomery should make the club again. Mays, the seventh-round draft choice in 2017, never took a snap because of the hamstring injury that he suffered Aug. 3.
Bouagnon’s 115 snaps were more than twice the load of Montgomery (49), the next most-used back. The free agent from Northern Illinois probably doesn’t have the quickness or speed to make it.
Ripkowski entered his fourth season needing to demonstrate some improvement after a down year. If he did, it wasn’t evident. Kerridge didn’t do much, either.
DEFENSIVE LINE (5 or 6)
Locks –
NT Kenny Clark, 3-tech Mike Daniels.
Good bets – 5-tech DE Muhammad Wilkerson.
On the fence – 5-tech DE Dean Lowry, 3-tech Montravius Adams, NT Joey Mbu, 5-tech James Looney.
Long shots – 3-tech DE Conor Sheehy, NT Tyler Lancaster.
Overview: Other than staying on the field, Adams didn’t impress in his second summer. He’ll likely start the season as the fifth D-lineman, meaning he’ll need an injury to be in uniform on Sundays.
Looney, a seventh-round pick, failed to make a play all summer. Billed as an interior pass rusher, he didn’t show it. He also was consistently displaced in the run game.
An effort player, Mbu spent time as a rookie free agent with Atlanta and Indianapolis in 2017 before signing with the Packers in mid-June. He outplayed Looney but it still might not be enough.
After the Pittsburgh game, one scout said of Mbu: “Liked him. Initial quickness. Arm over. Runs feet on contact. He and Clark were their two best. He was more active than he was at (the University of) Houston.”
After the Oakland game, the same scout said: “He did nothing. Never got off the line of scrimmage.”
Mbu registered one knockdown, one hurry and one strong tackle in 33 bounce-back snaps against Kansas City.
Two Big Ten rookie free agents, Sheehy (Wisconsin) and Lancaster (Northwestern), represented themselves fairly well. Sheehy (55 snaps, including 26 in Game 4) was quick and active. Lancaster (75) saved his best for last with two tackles for loss.
LINEBACKERS (8 to 10)
Locks –
OLB Clay Matthews, OLB Nick Perry, ILB Blake Martinez.
Good bets – OLB Reggie Gilbert, ILB Oren Burks.
On the fence – OLB Kyler Fackrell, OLB Vince Biegel, ILB Ahmad Thomas, ILB Greer Martini, OLB Chris Odom, OLB Kendall Donnerson, ILB Antonio Morrison.
Long shots – ILB James Crawford, ILB Naashon Hughes, ILB Marcus Porter, OLB James Hearns.
Overview: The rise of Gilbert leave Fackrell and Biegel either fighting for one berth or coming in fourth and fifth on the depth chart outside.
When Fackrell wins, it’s because of get-off, hand usage and hustle. “Not good at the point of attack,” one scout said. “His whole game is takeoff and explosion. He’s just a straight-line guy.”
After a slow start Biegel came on in Games 2-3. “He can shed at the point,” said one scout. “He might be able to rush the passer some. He just works and works and works.”
Added another scout: “Plays hard, plays tough. No burst of extra gear. Stiff and tight. Not gifted athletically.”
Donnerson (61 snaps), a seventh-round draft choice from Southeast Missouri, looked understandably tentative as he made the conversion from defensive end to linebacker. Odom (67) didn’t make much happen in his second season.
Jake Ryan’s blown knee July 30 and the shoulder injury suffered by Burks Aug. 24 created unexpected opportunity for Thomas and Martini, a pair of rookie free agents from top programs.
Thomas, a safety at Oklahoma, is similar to Joe Thomas, the Packers’ former dime linebacker who received $1 million guaranteed to sign with Dallas in mid-March.
“I’d take him over Joe Thomas,” said one scout. “He’s keepable. He lacks size but he’s fast.”
Martini, from Notre Dame, is more of a conventional middle linebacker with size (6-3 ½, 232) and below-average speed (4.81). He played 140 snaps compared to 123 for Thomas. At times, Martini would play base downs and then exit on passing downs for Thomas.
After struggling against Tennessee, Martini started making a few tackles on instinct and even broke up two passes against the Chiefs.
“He plays hard,” one scout said. “He’s probably smart (Wonderlic score of 26). He just doesn’t play with talent. I don’t really like him or Thomas.”
Dissatisfied with the physical Crawford, Hughes and Porter, the Packers traded for the Colts’ Antonio Morrison on Sunday and gave him 20 first-half snaps in Kansas City.
Morrison, a 15-game starter last season, showed take-on, made an open-field tackle and was eager to mix it up. He also showed poor low-block shield on a 12-yard run up the middle and minimal range in coverage.
He’s a dinosaur, a squatty run stuffer with the speed of a 3-technique.
SECONDARY (10 to 12)
Locks –
CB Kevin King, CB Josh Jackson, CB Jaire Alexander, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
Good bets – CB Tramon Williams, S Kentrell Brice, S Josh Jones.
On the fence – CB Davon House, CB Demetri Goodson, S Raven Greene, S-CB Quinten Rollins, CB Herb Waters, CB Josh Hawkins, S Jermaine Whitehead, S Marwin Evans.
Long shots – CB Donatello Brown.
Overview: The first seven jobs appear spoken for, and the veteran House very well might make eight.
Goodson will never be a speed guy but he’s tough and competitive, has been in better coverage position than in previous seasons and is a force as a gunner on special teams.
Waters is an impressive athlete but has very thin lower legs and has been picked on at times. Hawkins led the cornerbacks in playing time (119 snaps) but remains inconsistent. He can fly but plays small and isn’t reliable at the ball. Brown, another holdover, had a disappointing August.
When the coaches saw Rollins unable to keep up as a cornerback in the first week of camp, they gave him a chance to salvage his career as an all-purpose player. He’s a dynamic blitzer from the slot or as a dime linebacker, likes to hit and in time could factor as a safety.
As veterans with considerable talent, Evans and Whitehead worked ahead of Greene until about the last two weeks. But now, given Greene’s rugged run support and increasing grasp of the defense, the rookie free agent from James Madison might have surpassed them.
SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
Locks –
K Mason Crosby, P JK Scott.
On the fence – LS Zach Triner, LS Hunter Bradley.
Overview: Bradley was the heavy favorite to win the job based on the fact he was drafted in the seventh round. The Packers have listed him No. 1 on the depth chart for the entire month.
Triner, however, appears to have sent back many more placement snaps with “perfect laces” than Bradley in games.
Triner had a cup of coffee with the Jets in spring 2017 before latching on with Green Bay.
If level of competition means much, Bradley’s three seasons as the starter at Mississippi State mean far more than Triner’s three seasons at Assumption College (Mass.).
 
Lets, see, looking at the 2017 final roster (This does not include IR guys):
2 of 2 QBs gone (Hundley, Callahan)
3 of 5 RB/FB gone (Kerridge, Mays, Rip)
3 of 7 WR gone (Clark, Jordy, Janis)
1 of 3 TE gone (RR)
2 of 3 T gone (Pankey, John)
1 of 2 C gone (Day)
1 of 3 G gone (Evans)
1 of 5 DL gone (Dial)
4 of 9 LB gone (Beigel, Brooks, Odom, Thomas)
7 of 10 DB gone (Brown, Burnett, Evans, Hawkins, Pipkins, Randall, Whitehead)
2 of 3 ST gone (Vogel, Goode)


7 of the 14 guys who ended the year on IR are gone....

That's roughly 62% roster turnover from end of last year. 51% of ending 53

That's some nice roster turnover... Good for Gutey cutting deadwood. Just keep in mind that with this many new players, plus a new DC, and what seems to be a slight shift in Offense, this year is gonna take awhile for the team to gel...
 
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