the bucs are a pretty balanced team. both their defense and their offense are very good. our team seems to be a little lopsided. we have perhaps the best offense in the nfl, certainly in terms of scoring. but the defense is just adequate. and maybe - if we take into account the efficiency of our offense, the defense may not actually be good enough to be called average. the stats say they are better than average, but how much of that is due to the offense getting early leads and the other team becoming one dimensional?
i want us to win this game so much. i want to believe that ml will come up with an offensive game plan that will somehow neutralize that bucs defense. it is really our best hope for a win.
there are a few things that make me hopeful. #1, the last time we played the bucs, davante was playing his first game after missing three games due to injury. i think they rushed him back a little early and he wasn't at full strength yet. it wasn't his worst game of the season, but the bucs held him under 70 yards and no tds. #2, our offensive line play has really improved over the last half of the season. rodgers has only rarely had to scramble, and has only been sacked a few times over the past seven games (the game against carolina being the exception). in five of those seven games he was only sacked one time (2 games) or not at all (3 games). #3, our run game has improved as well. and that's not just because of the ol. our wide receivers and tight ends have helped that with effective blocking. in our last game against the bucs, jones averaged only 1.5 yards per carry. like adams, he was coming back after missing a couple games. it was his worst game of the season. #4, rodgers had a freakishly bad game. i think it may have been the worst game of his career (note: it turns out that he did have one worse game in 2014 against buffalo). i think he will be highly self-motivated to reverse that. the question will be whether the bucs defense can rattle him again or not, and whether he can get better help from his supporting cast. if the ol can keep him clean, and if his receivers can catch the ball, and if the aaron jones can have a good game, . . . that's a lot of ifs.
on the other side of the ball, our defense has gotten better over the second half of the season. maybe not as good as their numbers make them appear, but certainly better than they were early on. over the last six games, they have given up an average of 18.5 points per game, giving an average winning margin of 15 points per game. are they good enough to hold the goat in check? that seems unlikely to me. which means that the offense has to be at the top of their game. and this is where things get a little murky for me. allen lazard may not be able to play, and that would be huge. not from a receiving standpoint but for all the other things he does on offense. he would truly be missed. aj dillon, who has really only had a couple decent games is also unlikely to be a factor, which limits us to only jones and williams, and williams is still battling an ankle issue. this is a game where we will really need our rushing attack to help set up the pass. and this is where i see our biggest issue.
