AR Prediction Thread

Reality tells me that neither the Packers nor the Jets will move forward with a deal until after the June deadline, when the Packers can move millions of dollars of cap money into the second year, on Rodgers.

Both teams benefit. The Packers, on cap space, and the Jets, by giving up picks from next year, not this year. It could even sweeten the pot for the Packers to a degree, because of it. The Jets might be willing to up their offer somewhat.

Anyhow, that's the logic I see behind the delay. I say this because I get the sneaking suspicion there's already a deal, in principle, already in place. Just needs the details sorted out.
I think if it happens after June the comp might be less with Jets saying well he's missed OTA and time to work teammates and you are backed in corner yourself with him so here is a 2024 3rd round pick and a 2025 3rd round pick if he plays in 2024.
 
I think if it happens after June the comp might be less with Jets saying well he's missed OTA and time to work teammates and you are backed in corner yourself with him so here is a 2024 3rd round pick and a 2025 3rd round pick if he plays in 2024.
I look at it the complete opposite. It gives them value this year and they don't have to pay for it until next year. And, if in fact they do real well, their draft picks would be down lower in the order, so they'd lose less than they would in this year's draft.

Also, it would give them the opportunity to improve their team with through the draft by keeping those earlier picks.

As far as this year's OTAs, I don't think that will even enter the picture.

But, we all have our opinions. You see, I believe they've already come to an agreement in principle on this trade. All they are waiting for is the correct time to make it happen. For the Packers, the best time would be after the June deadline to move cap money.
 
I look at it the complete opposite. It gives them value this year and they don't have to pay for it until next year. And, if in fact they do real well, their draft picks would be down lower in the order, so they'd lose less than they would in this year's draft.

Also, it would give them the opportunity to improve their team with through the draft by keeping those earlier picks.

As far as this year's OTAs, I don't think that will even enter the picture.

But, we all have our opinions. You see, I believe they've already come to an agreement in principle on this trade. All they are waiting for is the correct time to make it happen. For the Packers, the best time would be after the June deadline to move cap money.

TW,

It makes sense what you are saying but let me ask:

Why can't they sign an agreement (contract) that says he is traded in June? In other words, come out and say what the agreement is and what we are trading him for.

It seems weird that they have to wait to tell anyone. What would be the point of that? To be secretive about what draft picks they will take?
 
League has to make the schedule for 2023. They'll want the Jets to get some national games, because they'll have Aaron Rodgers now.

Goodell is gonna show up to mediate a deal. If the two sides can't hash it out, he's gonna decide compensation.
 
League has to make the schedule for 2023. They'll want the Jets to get some national games, because they'll have Aaron Rodgers now.

Goodell is gonna show up to mediate a deal. If the two sides can't hash it out, he's gonna decide compensation.
He has zero power to do that.
 
TW,

It makes sense what you are saying but let me ask:

Why can't they sign an agreement (contract) that says he is traded in June? In other words, come out and say what the agreement is and what we are trading him for.

It seems weird that they have to wait to tell anyone. What would be the point of that? To be secretive about what draft picks they will take?
They don't allow post-designations on trades. You can do that with releases and retirements but not with trades.
 

How we’d get the Aaron Rodgers trade done for the Packers and Jets​


It has been more than a week since Aaron Rodgers went on “The Pat McAfee Show” and declared his “intention” to play for Jets. That was supposed to be a turning point in this never-ending saga, the moment he made public what he wanted to do — with a trade soon to follow.

Well, we’re still waiting.

The Packers want a first-round pick for Rodgers. The Jets don’t want to trade their first-round pick. And so there’s a stalemate. The debate has raged far and wide about which team has more “leverage.” The reality: Neither team really has more leverage — and both should want to get this done sooner rather than later, especially with the NFL Draft looming in a little more than a month.

Like Packers and Jets fans, we’re tired of the waiting, too.

So we got Joe Douglas (Jets writer Zack Rosenblatt) and Brian Gutekunst (Packers writer Matt Schneidman) together via Slack and let them hash these negotiations out.

Here is the transcript of that (fake) conversation:

Joe Douglas (Rosenblatt): Hello, Brian (in my most Jerry Seinfeld-to-Newman voice). I think it’s time we hash this trade out once and for all so we can relax and enjoy the sunny weather in Arizona at the annual league meeting next week. Don’t ruin my vacation.

We are in a unique spot in that we both know the ending of this story — Aaron Rodgers will be a Jet. We just don’t know what happens before that yet. I want to get something done. You want to get something done. It is in both of our best interests to complete this deal so we can both move on with our lives. Don’t you want to unsubscribe from “The Pat McAfee Show” on YouTube? I know you do.
I’ve been the Jets general manager for four years now and I’ve never lost in a trade — the jury is still out on that Elijah Moore deal I pulled off Wednesday — and I don’t plan on changing that now. (If you say the words “James” or “Robinson,” I will plead ignorance.) But we can both walk out of this deal feeling victorious, I think.

Before we get into the trade details, why don’t you just let me know where your head is at, how you’re feeling and if there’s anything you want to say before we get into the nitty-gritty? Let’s start from a place of positivity, Brian.

Brian Gutekunst (Schneidman): Where’s my head at, Joe? You’re really asking me that? My boss just said on TV at a Wisconsin high school girls basketball tournament that we want Jordan Love over Aaron. I don’t care if it’s true. You don’t say that on TV! Oh, and then Aaron goes on with McAfee and A.J. Hawk and accuses me of going behind his back to shop him. What did Allen Lazard say during his Jets introduction? That Rodgers’ “communication dwindles a little bit” in the offseason? It’s not all my fault we didn’t have a direct conversation! But other than the circus here in Green Bay, my head is in a great place. Thanks for asking.

Let’s hammer this out. Yeah, we both know how this ends, but I’m not just going to hand one of the best players this game has ever seen to you just because we want him gone and he wants out. I need proper compensation. We’ll start with the No. 13 pick. If I don’t get that, no deal. I’ll make you sweat this one out into the summer if I have to. I know you don’t want Zach Wilson running with the ones during offseason work and training camp. If you really want Aaron and think he gives you a chance to win a title, then he’s worth a first-round pick this year, at least, and you know it.
Douglas: To quote your soon-to-be-former quarterback: R-E-L-A-X. We are going to get this done, we both know it. No need to get sassy with me. I think you knew that first-round pick was always going to be a sticking point, but I do understand why you’re asking for it. The 13th pick is A LOT to give up for a 39-year-old quarterback who we have no guarantees will be back in 2024, but you already know that.

Just think about what we traded 15 years ago in a nearly identical situation: Brett Favre for a conditional fourth-round pick that turned into a third-round pick.

Now, we’re not unreasonable. I know that is not enough this time, and that the value of quarterbacks on the trade market has changed. But even you have to admit how similar this situation is to that one from 2008.

I would love to gauge your temperature on a different sort of deal — and we obviously are willing to negotiate:

You get our second-round pick (No. 43), fourth-round pick (No. 112), a conditional 2025 third-round pick and wide receiver Corey Davis. The conditions on that third-round pick would obviously be tied to how much (or if) Rodgers plays in 2024. Let’s say if he plays in 50 percent of the snaps in 2024, that becomes a second-round pick. If the Jets make the playoffs, it becomes a first. Davis is a quality wide receiver in the Lazard mold, and we know you need to replace Lazard.

I would be willing to discuss a first-round pick without conditions … in 2024. But we both know you need draft picks right now. Before we even broach that idea, let me at least hear your thoughts on my initial offer.
Gutekunst: Trust me, I know how unsettling it can be having Aaron as your quarterback and not knowing if he’ll play beyond the next season. I get wanting to protect yourself against the possibility he retires after one season playing for you. But even if it’s just one season, there’s a price to pay for automatic playoff contention. And that’s what he gives any team, no matter how many gray hairs he caused me over the last couple years with everything else. He has won two of the last three MVPs. Last season, he played with a broken throwing thumb for the majority of the year and dealt with receivers who had no idea what routes to run and his two best offensive linemen coming off major injuries. This guy is still elite and you owe it to your franchise to pay what it’s worth for a quarterback like that after who you’ve trotted out there in recent history (with all due respect).

I appreciate your offer and it’s not bad. But I have to do whatever I can to surround my 24-year-old starting quarterback with as much help on either side of the ball as I can to ease his transition. Love is cool as a cucumber, but he’s still facing a lot of pressure following in the footsteps of Brett and Aaron. I can’t get off that No. 13 pick. You’re going to cut Davis anyway, but we’ll take him since Matt LaFleur likes him from their time together with the Titans.

I know you understand what bringing Aaron to your franchise means. I’m not asking for multiple first-round picks, but here’s my counter: The No. 13 pick this year, a conditional 2025 fourth-round pick and Davis. That conditional pick becomes a third if Aaron plays 50 percent of the snaps in 2024, a second if you make the playoffs with him and a first if you make the Super Bowl with him. I think that’s a reasonable offer.

Douglas: I get where you’re coming from, and I don’t even necessarily think that’s a bad offer — but you made my point for me. You want to surround Love with as much talent as possible now, hence why you need this deal to get done before the draft.

But I won’t be a jerk. If you won’t budge on the first-round pick, then this can go one of two ways:

1. You eat a large chunk of the $58.3 million we’d owe Aaron the next two years and give us back a useful pick (fourth-rounder this year or third-rounder next year) in the trade.

2. If you’re not going to eat the salary, then we’ll require a better pick in return. The reality: You’re only negotiating with one team, and you want to get rid of Rodgers as badly as we want to get him. If the goal is winning, it does you no benefit to wait until September. So what I’d propose is this …

Packers get: First-round pick (No. 13), fourth-round pick (No. 112), conditional 2025 fourth-round pick (with the conditions you laid out), Davis and wide receiver Denzel Mims.

Jets get: Aaron Rodgers, second-round pick (No. 45).

You can look at it like this: You’d have two firsts, a third, two fourths and all your other picks, plus a quality veteran receiver (Davis) to help Love right away, another young wide receiver with potential (Mims) and a valuable future pick, too.
 
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