The PAC-12 is doomed!

[TW]

Adding USC and UCLA to the Big 10 isn't the end. There will be more. The balance of teams left will end up in the Big 12, I'd guess. The question is who ends up where.

My guesses on this, as to where they'll fit in.

Oregon - Big 10
Washington - Big 10
Stanford - Big 10
Notre Dame - Big 10 (Although not in PAC-12, I think they're part of the future in the Big 10)

Arizona - Big 12
Arizona State - Big 12
California Berkley - Big 12, I rate at 70%, but they could still end up in Big 10
Colorado - Big 12
Utah - Big 12
Washington State - Big 12
Oregon State - Big 12

Depending on the decisions made surrounding Cal Berkley, one more team will be added to the Big 10. It could be a team out of Texas, or it could be an East Coast raid. Hard to tell at this point.

 

[FlaPack]

Adding USC and UCLA to the Big 10 isn't the end. There will be more. The balance of teams left will end up in the Big 12, I'd guess. The question is who ends up where.

My guesses on this, as to where they'll fit in.

Oregon - Big 10
Washington - Big 10
Stanford - Big 10
Notre Dame - Big 10 (Although not in PAC-12, I think they're part of the future in the Big 10)

Arizona - Big 12
Arizona State - Big 12
California Berkley - Big 12, I rate at 70%, but they could still end up in Big 10
Colorado - Big 12
Utah - Big 12
Washington State - Big 12
Oregon State - Big 12

Depending on the decisions made surrounding Cal Berkley, one more team will be added to the Big 10. It could be a team out of Texas, or it could be an East Coast raid. Hard to tell at this point.

Good list.
The more I hear this week the more I’m convinced that unless ND goes to the B1G both the B1G and SEC stay where they are.

Right now the B1G stands at 16 with UCLA & SC. Assuming the $1m per year per school media payout is accurate, which I am 95% sure it is, that’s $16m to divide out. If ND joins the party that number shoots up considerably probably closer to $1.75 per school and then for balance you add to get 18. My guess is Stanford if that happens. Then you stay put at 18. That brings the pool to $31.5m. If you hit 20, you need about $4m in media value to stay @$1.75 per school and I just don’t see Oregon and Washington delivering that.

ESPN is attempting to figure out some way to “merge” the ACC & PAC 12. Now on the flip side Fox would much more prefer a Big 12 / PAC 12 alliance.

Actually because of their Grant of Rights deal the ACC is in a weaker position than the Pac 12

 

[FlaPack]

For your reading pleasure, the ACC Grant of Rights agreement

 

[FlaPack]

ACC Grant of Rights cont

 

[TW]

Essentially I'm getting the message from the conference agreements that each school is bound to the others through the contractual agreement for broadcast rights to their games. To me, that means that unless there's a loophole somewhere in the agreement, which I doubt. To escape from a conference, it would require the blessing of the network, and I doubt for a heartbeat they'd let a team go without getting a pint of blood.

In the ACC agreement, it's contractual to ESPN. That begs the question as to when the media contracts are renewable for the Pac-12, and what kind of a negotiating agreement is in place with the media owning the rights for the SEC, and Big 10 are willing to do, when it comes to adding additional teams.

Thanks for posting the ACC agreement. It tells us a lot on how they're written.

 

[FlaPack]

Essentially I'm getting the message from the conference agreements that each school is bound to the others through the contractual agreement for broadcast rights to their games. To me, that means that unless there's a loophole somewhere in the agreement, which I doubt. To escape from a conference, it would require the blessing of the network, and I doubt for a heartbeat they'd let a team go without getting a pint of blood.

In the ACC agreement, it's contractual to ESPN. That begs the question as to when the media contracts are renewable for the Pac-12, and what kind of a negotiating agreement is in place with the media owning the rights for the SEC, and Big 10 are willing to do, when it comes to adding additional teams.

Thanks for posting the ACC agreement. It tells us a lot on how they're written.

To answer your PAC 12 question. The media rights deal ends in 2024 and is currently being negotiated.

From my understanding, if you leave a conference (ACC) it’s not so much other schools blessing, you just have to pay a $50m exit fee. And since ESPN owns the ACC Network it’s all rolled up.

Now the B1G is a bit different. Fox has a majority stake in BTN but the league also has agreements with ESPN and Fox. Not sure what the exact language is but I would assume there is some exit fee but because of multiple partners it probably has different terms.

Remember that ESPN owns both the SEC Network, The Longhorn Network and owns the rights to Oklahoma’s streaming platform….hence why ESPN was the driving factor for Texas and Oklahoma to move to the SEC. One more thing …they most likely are granted full rights immediately unlike when Rutgers and Maryland joined the B1G, it’s was not full rights for I believe 3 years. Softens the blow for any B12 exit fees

Now UCLA & USC probably will receive full rights immediately also. And this to remember….Fox is the major rights holders in the PAC 12 and have a significant agreement with the B1G, hence why they brokered this deal for the B1G

 

[FlaPack]

Re: PAC 12 Media rights….heard this today
"The beauty of the Pac-12 is you can program that late window for 13 consecutive weeks,"

So they hit up ESPN or Fox and own the 10:30p late window Saturday with a game of the week similar to what Fox and ESPN do on the 8p window. Makes sense. Like for NFL football junkies will watch especially with gambling involved, gives networks 4 major time slots…noon, 3:30p, 8p, 10:30p.

 

[TW]

I think this whole conference jumping thing has not ended yet. I think they're going to amaze us with a few things that happen down the road to be honest.

I also see the proposal by the SEC to go to a 12 team championship playoff being considered, even though I think it will possibly be 6 to 8 to start. It could end up that a "first round playoff game" would be the playoff between the two divisions in the SEC and Big 10 for two of the guaranteed spots. From there? I don't know. The original SEC idea was that the 6 major conferences would get an auto selection and the rest would be based on invite by merit, if I recall correctly.

 

[FlaPack]

I think this whole conference jumping thing has not ended yet. I think they're going to amaze us with a few things that happen down the road to be honest.

I also see the proposal by the SEC to go to a 12 team championship playoff being considered, even though I think it will possibly be 6 to 8 to start. It could end up that a "first round playoff game" would be the playoff between the two divisions in the SEC and Big 10 for two of the guaranteed spots. From there? I don't know. The original SEC idea was that the 6 major conferences would get an auto selection and the rest would be based on invite by merit, if I recall correctly.

And the irony of it all it was the ACC who killed the proposals for expanding the CFP. That’s what was for push for the so called “Alliance” which now is a mute point

I don’t think ND does anything anytime soon like next 3-6 months and until that happens the Big 2 stay put. Swarbrick is a smart guy. It’s no coincidence that that story of ND looking at $75m was floated out there. Strategic trial ballon to gauge the market.

2 Keys to watch. #1 Does NBC get a piece of B1G media rights. #2 Does the PAC 12 media rights deal close in the next 3 - 6 months. That’s the “tell” on how ND plays it

And that ties directly to the CFP. ND wants a seat at that table and will that require them to be in a conference or stay independent.

 

[GBP4EVER]

Adding USC and UCLA to the Big 10 isn't the end. There will be more. The balance of teams left will end up in the Big 12, I'd guess. The question is who ends up where.

My guesses on this, as to where they'll fit in.

Oregon - Big 10
Washington - Big 10
Stanford - Big 10
Notre Dame - Big 10 (Although not in PAC-12, I think they're part of the future in the Big 10)

Arizona - Big 12
Arizona State - Big 12
California Berkley - Big 12, I rate at 70%, but they could still end up in Big 10
Colorado - Big 12
Utah - Big 12
Washington State - Big 12
Oregon State - Big 12

Depending on the decisions made surrounding Cal Berkley, one more team will be added to the Big 10. It could be a team out of Texas, or it could be an East Coast raid. Hard to tell at this point.

Can't see Big Ten taking 4 Pac-12 teams