No. You're not wrong. There are so many avenues where this could go, and essentially none of them point to him getting back on the field for a long time. There has to be very little doubt that they will get a true bill.
Right now, it appears that the defense is looking at ways to quash subpoenas to reduce the number of people implicating him for his actions. That's usually a sign that they're trying to reduce the number of charges, looking for an avenue to make a deal to get their client off as easy as possible.
Right now, I have a feeling that the chances of him never getting back on the field is hovering just a little under 50%. If convicted, a lot of teams will never touch him, no matter what. It just isn't worth the bad press.