Packers 2015 season PFF analysis - Offense

[salmar80]

Promised you guys something in thanks for inviting the "Lost Forum" -people here. Here you go!

Let's see how our guys did vs the league grade-wise. This is probably the last year I get my hands on signature stats and more detailed grades, so enjoy!

I analyze players with >25% snaps, since they're comparable with the rest of the league. Playoffs games are included.

QB Aaron Rodgers +21.5, 8th/37 QBs - Most QBs would give their non-throwing arm for Arod's down year. Only 9 INTs and 35TDs - that's remarkable considering the ailing WR corps AND him taking 3rd most sacks in the league. Something was off, though: His accuracy % when accounting for drops, batted passes etc dropped from 75.0% (11th) to 72.3% (23rd). Same thing shows on deep passes and under pressure. Arod took 5th longest to throw (2.96 seconds), which is largely explained by him scrambling so much. By comparison, the quickest on the draw, Payton Manning, took only 2.31s. Got the blame for 5 sacks and 28 total pressures, more than ever before.

RB Eddie Lacy +6.9, 16th/69 RBs - It wasn't a disastrous season for Fat Boy Running, but clear dropoff from last season (+22.3, 2nd best). His "elusiveness rating" (measures yards after contact, tackles avoided or broken), fell from 3rd to 25th. His pass blocking fell from 4th to 41st. Shape up, big boi!

RB James Starks -2.1, 54th/69 RBs - The thinner runner also took a step back, and didn't produce much on his own. Finished 40th in elusiveness. His pass blocking was sterling, though, 8th best of all. Both RBs finished near top fumblers (4 apiece). At least All Day was the worst offender with 6.

FB John Kuhn -1.1, 15th/21 - Somehow got a bad grade in passing game, but was second best pass blocker among league's RB and FBs, allowing only one pressure. Just 12 carries, but 2 TDs. Weeeell worth his vet min contract.

TE Richard Rodgers -3.0, 35th/70 TEs - Improved a lot from -10.9 as a rookie, and graded 14th best as a receiver. Only 2 drops in 67 catchable throws. His lack of deep speed shows in him being 27th/39 in yards per route run, and was targeted deep (>20yds) only twice, the lone deep catch being the "Hail Mary....OMG!"-reception. His blocking simply must improve: Graded 47th in run blocking and 60th pass blocking.

WR James Jones +3.8, 43rd/120 WRs - When your top rated WR ranks 43rd, you got trouble, especially since 2/3rds of his positive grade was due to blocking (11th best). The Hoodie played insane 1205 snaps out of possible 1316 (2nd most among WRs), and had 6 good games and 6 bad ones. Was 52nd in yds/route run. Ranked 45th in drop rate, butterfingering 5 passes out of 62 catchable balls. Did catch all 12 catchable deep balls.

WR Randall Cobb +1.8, 53rd/120 WRs - Added attention led to a near catastrophic drop from last year (+22.3). Played 3rd most snaps of NFL WRs (1146). 3rd best runner, but graded just 65th in passing game and 61st in yards/route run. His slot performance dropped from 11th best to 41st. Was 40th in drop rate (8 drops/114). Caught 1 out of only 2 catchable deep balls thrown his way.

WR Davante Adams -10.1, 116th/120 WRs - Must forget this season ever happened or he won't see his rookie contract to its end. Grade dropped from -5.5 as a rookie, and didn't register a single game "in the green" (>+1.0), meaning he was consistently bad. Had dismal 10th highest drop rate (10 drops/64). 73rd/82 in yards per route run. Caught 4/5 catchable deep balls.

LT David Bakhtiari -1.0, 29th/77 OTs -The "Chad Clifton of 2010s" didn't make 3rd year jump, but continued his march as a good pass blocker (11th) and bad run blocker (57th). There were 16 better overall graded LTs, so he isn't near elite, but probably has the best performance/cost ratio. Allowed 3 sacks and 36 total pressures in 589 pass block snaps, finishing 27th in pass block efficiency. 49 OTs allowed more sacks than Bak. Took 12 penalties, 2nd most in the league.

RT Bryan Bulaga -9.0, 40/77 OTs - Fell from +15.9 last year and didn't play up to his new contract, mostly due to injuries. Started the year terribly, including god-awful -5.9 for week 8. Ended with 3/4 games "in the green" (>+1). That late season Bulaga is a fine OT! Ranked 29th in pass blocking, and 62nd run blocking. Allowed 7 sacks and 39 total pressures. His pass blocking efficiency ranked 40th.

OT Don Barclay -35.2, 72nd/77 OTs - Holy #¤%& was he bad. Coming off an ACL and another injury, he just crumbled. Allowed 9 sacks and 43 pressures in just 241 snaps, and was THE worst in the league in pass block efficiency. Projecting for full season of starting snaps, it would've been about 26 sacks and 120 pressures :shock: . Also 11th worst run blocker.

LG Josh Sitton +30.2, 6th/81 OGs - Even bad back didn't stop him from being 3rd best LG in the league. THE best pass blocking guard in NFL, and 18th run blocking. Let's just forget his misguided game as LT. As guard, allowed 3 sacks and 16 total pressures and had 3rd best pass blocking efficiency.

RG TJ Lang +32.1, 3rd/81 OGs - League's 2nd best RG got bragging rights over Sitton with his best season. Graded 4th in pass blocking, 10th run blocking. Was 6th in pass block efficiency, allowing 2 sacks and 20 total pressures. Dude is a rock.

C JC Tretter +4.7, 8th/39 Cs - The Swiss Army knife played EVERY OL position this season :shock: . As center, graded 7th pass blocking and 17th run blocking. Allowed only 2 hurries in 186 pass block snaps at C, which was most efficient pass blocking in the league. Wonder if coaches will train him as an every position backup or allow him to compete with Linsley for starting C spot in his contract year. I'd like the former.

C Corey Linsley +3.7, 12th/39 Cs - Injuries led to a small tumble from lofty +13.1 grade as a rookie. Still by no means a slouch: Graded 9th best pass blocking, 12th run blocking. Pass blocking efficiency ranked 18th, with 3 sacks and 23 total pressures allowed in 559 pass block snaps. If he has to battle Tretter, it'll be epic.

Significant others (in order of snaps played):

WR Ty Montgomery -3.3 - Erratic but promising until an ankle injury put him on the sideline.
WR Jared Abbrederis -1.0 - Didn't post a single grade in the green, but survived the season and helped late.
WR Jeff Janis +2.5 - Played a significant amount of snaps in only 2 games, but got >+1 for both. Play the man!
OG Lane Taylor 0.0 - He sure learned how to run block, but allowed a sack and 8 total pressures in very limited snaps. May be worth bringing back to camp to see if he can be a G backup.
TE Andrew Quarless -2.0 - We sure could've used a healthy season from him. As it was, he's 95% surely gone.
TE Justin Perillo +0.7 - The funniest looking "fathlete", but caught everything thrown his way. Bad blocker.
OL Josh Walker -5.4 - Simply isn't a OT. As a guard, did muuuuch better. Worth another look.

 

[Mark87]

Thank you... and very good to see you

 

[Cheesedog]

a lot of good stuff in those rankings... a good gut check in terms of where this team really is.

 

[Crease Creature]

Definitely helps reinforce my point about the importance of Sitton, Lang, and Bakhtiari coming up on contract years next season and Linsley and Tretter the year after that.

 

[realitybytes]

WR Davante Adams -10.1, 116th/120 WRs - Must forget this season ever happened or he won't see his rookie contract to its end. Grade dropped from -5.5 as a rookie, and didn't register a single game "in the green" (>+1.0), meaning he was consistently bad. Had dismal 10th highest drop rate (10 drops/64). 73rd/82 in yards per route run. Caught 4/5 catchable deep balls.

WR Ty Montgomery -3.3 - Erratic but promising until an ankle injury put him on the sideline.
WR Jared Abbrederis -1.0 - Didn't post a single grade in the green, but survived the season and helped late.
WR Jeff Janis +2.5 - Played a significant amount of snaps in only 2 games, but got >+1 for both. Play the man!

wow. just wow.

 

[salmar80]

wow. just wow.

Well... Adams did play hurt much of the season. Probably lost his confidence along the way. And while Janis got good grades in 2 games, that may be an anomaly. There were games he played lesser snaps in where he was an invisible man. He sometimes ran such bad routes or telegraphed them, that CBs were right there salivating an INT opportunity. Had he played as many snaps as Adams, it could've been great or a disaster.

Janis himself admitted he is raw (can't find that article right now). He kinda took 1st year to acclimatize, 2nd year to get good on STs. Maybe 3rd year is the one where he finally gets the nuances of NFL WR play down. If he does, look out!

Definitely helps reinforce my point about the importance of Sitton, Lang, and Bakhtiari coming up on contract years next season and Linsley and Tretter the year after that.

Yes! That line is AWESOME when healthy! Did you know we had the starting 5 together for only 2 games (!) this season - even if you included Tretter? Bak isn't bound to become a Pro Bowler, but is a fine pass blocker (and he cost half as much as our PUNTER!). Bulaga is worth the cash when healthy. The interior is probably the best in the NFL.

We do need a waaaay better OT backup. Luckily it seems like the best draft when it comes to OTs in a while. I could easily see us picking one in round 1 or 2.

 

[BratsnBeers]

Great break down ! Thank you for posting it.

 

[57packer]

Thanks for the solid break-down. Agree that it's hard to know how Janis would have performed if he'd been given a bigger role earlier. Still, I'm one of those who would have liked to have seen just a little more of him.

The o-line is a solid group though maybe not spectacular. Agree with "Crease" that it could become a problem over the next 2 years but I guess I'm not real negative about how this could turn out. I suspect TT spends money on at least one of Lang/Sitton. Trettor is nice to have but won't be expensive to keep. Linsley will get paid. TT likes to pay his own guys and he'll do what he needs to to keep Linsley unless the money gets just plain stupid, in which case he;ll have Trettor to fall back on.

The wildcard is BahkT. What kind of money will he find in FA? He's been steady but not spectacular. He does pretty well with speed, but bull-rushers collapse the pocket pretty regularly against him. He's just a guy as a run blocker. I'm in the camp of giving him a $6-7/yr deal similar to Bulaga. He's not worth premium LT type money but is worth a decent contract.

Let's also not forget about Bulaga. What does he have left? He's not old by any stretch, but has a long injury history and you wonder just how much longer the legs are going to hold out. Even with everyone back next fall, I think it's time to find an OT option this spring because Bulaga just plain breaks down too often. I'm not sure he'll be part of the picture in 2017 if he has another injury filled season.

The other consideration in this is that TT tends to draft to his weaknesses. Talk BPA all you want, but it's clear now that when he sees a need he pulls the trigger on those needs pretty regularly. Not saying he takes a bunch of reaches, but when they needed WRs he drafted them. When they needed RBs he took a pair. When they needed a safety he got one. When they needed CBs he took 2 in the first 2 picks. This year, he needs to draft a couple of OL - one early, one late and I would not be surprised if he doesn't do exactly that. Then, in 2017 once he knows his OL situation, I would not be surprised if he doesn't go out and grab exactly what he needs in the the first couple of rounds again.

 

[salmar80]

Way to look ahead 57packer!

Sitton, Lang, Bak and Tretter are all UFAs after this season. Linsley in 2 years. I expect TT to do his darnedest to keep this group together, but it'll likely be too costly -> impossible. If we again carry over plenty of unused cap space, this is what it can be used for!

Sitton and Lang are looking for their last big long contracts, so they won't be cheap. Mike Iupati got a 5-year deal averaging 8M per year as a 27-year-old. I expect that's in the ballpark what it would take for the slightly older Sitton and Lang. 6-7M per year should do it for Bak unless he has a cracking 2016.

It's interesting to see if GB allows Tretter to compete for starting C, or cross-trains him as multi-position backup. Top centers go for >6.5M average. OT backup would command 3-4M.

Bulaga was the 2nd highest graded RT in 2014. He was back in that form for the last 4 games, so there is hope. His injury history is still so nasty, we are basically forced to draft an OT or two.

 

[Defensewins]

Interesting stuff.. Thank you !