Official Week 3 Green Bay vs KC Thread

Saw this on another site.

Discussing Smith in the Kansas City chapter of FOA 2015, we introduced a stat we called "Air Minus Need Differential." We have since dumped the convoluted name for something simpler: Air Less Expected, or ALEX for short. This metric looks at how far the quarterback is throwing the ball relative to how many yards he needs for a first down. When Smith threw that swing pass five yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-5, that is minus-10 ALEX. Here is a table we used in FOA 2015 to highlight just how ridiculously conservative Smith is on third down since 2011 compared to his peers. (This is the table that didn't print correctly in physical copies of the book; sorry about that.) Keep in mind Smith also has the highest sack rate on third down -- he took one on Thursday night, too -- so if he's not firing too short, he's afraid to even pull the trigger.
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Read more here : ALEX stat
 
Sixty_Six_Ray said:
Kelce vs Hyde
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Well, that is the theory. But....many times other teams get the mismatch of our LBs covering backs or TEs.
My theory is that there is a hole in Capers defense (stop laughing) that other teams are able to abuse our LBs.
 
Theory or not KC HAS A CRAP passing game and a good RB. This game won't be that close. We tend to make monsters of moles
 
I am forever eternally grateful SF chose Smith over Rodgers but how in the world was Smith even considered a first round draft pick let alone the #1 overall pick that year??? cra)
 
I think someone said earlier in this thread that we should bring Burnett or Ha Ha up to defend against the run and go man to man against their receivers. Put 8 in the box and make Smith beat you.

I agree with this since Smith is ultra conservative and he does not have a ton of great receivers. Our defense should really be able to handle this offense if they play anything like Sunday night against the run.

Like I said earlier, run the ball well to protect AR but also play good ST's to win the battle of field position. That will really help our offense against this good defensive line of the Chiefs.
 
McGinn's thorough Chiefs Scouting Report

When Green Bay and Kansas City last played, the 13-0 Packers were gunning for football immortality while the 5-8 Chiefs were just playing out the string.

The two teams meet Monday night at Lambeau Field in what could be the 50th game in Mike McCarthy's 160-game coaching tenure in which the Packers, currently a 7-point pick, were favored by a touchdown or more.

McCarthy's record of 40-9 as a prohibitive favorite includes 17 victories in the last 18 of those games.

The Packers' worst defeat under McCarthy, at least based on the point spread, was that shocker in mid-December 2011 at Arrowhead Stadium. Dismissed as an 11-point underdog, coach Romeo Crennel and quarterback Kyle Orton engineered a 19-14 upset.

Kansas City has never lost in Green Bay (1989, 1990, 2003), and two assistant coaches for recent opponents of the Chiefs as well as an executive in personnel for an AFC team that has played them this season are expecting it to be close.

"Green Bay is tough to beat at home," said an offensive assistant coach. "I think they'll probably win it, but it's going to be a fourth-quarter, last-second deal."

The three football men all foresee the Packers winning a close game. Their predicted scores were 30-27, 28-24 and 31-24.

"More than likely it's a game where the outcome will be decided in the fourth quarter," the personnel man said. "Pass protection will be critical for Green Bay, but the Packers' quick passing game and the quarterback's ability to make good decisions against pressure gives Green Bay the edge."

The Chiefs are 1-1, winning at Houston, 27-20, before turning the ball over five times in a 31-24 loss to Denver. Since taking over in 2013, coach Andy Reid's team didn't have more than three turnovers in a game.

"The Chiefs are a damn good team," said a defensive assistant coach. "I don't think there's any doubt they have a chance for the playoffs. They've got some really good players.

"(Jeremy) Maclin will really help them down the stretch. The tight end (Travis Kelce) is a damn good receiver. Alex Smith is an adequate quarterback, they've got a great running back (Jamaal Charles) and their (offensive) line isn't bad.

"Defensively, the front seven is pretty damn good. They have outside rush."

After watching Green Bay's 27-17 victory over Seattle, the offensive coach expects the Chiefs to apply a stiffer pass rush against Aaron Rodgers than even the Seahawks could muster.

"Because they've got two better outside backers," the coach said. "Rodgers beat the Seahawks with his feet. You can talk about rushing him, but if you rush him and lose contain, look out, brother.

"I also think the Chiefs have a good shot because I think they're going to move the ball on Green Bay's defense better than Seattle did. I think if Seattle was (rolling), they'd have scored four touchdowns on Green Bay and maybe it would have been enough. Seattle is too inconsistent right now."

Kansas City probably will pay the price for not having cornerback Sean Smith, whose three-game suspension for substance abuse expires after this game, according to the scout.

"Marcus Peters is a quality young cornerback," he said. "But the Packers' skill on offense means they can attack the Chiefs' secondary and overcome the Chiefs' (strong) front seven."

OFFENSE
Scheme
Former Packers QB Doug Pederson is the coordinator, but coach Andy Reid calls the plays. A traditional West Coast tactician, Reid looks to screens, misdirection and gadget plays in an attempt to compensate for a weak down-field passing game. The Chiefs pull on a few running plays but their bread and butter is the zone scheme.

Receivers
Travis Kelce (6-5, 260), a third-round pick in 2013, emerged last season as one of the NFL's best young tight ends. He's a vertical threat who seems to play even faster than he timed (4.63). He has improved his hands noticeably since a checkered collegiate career at Cincinnati; his blocking is marginal. Because his WRs are so mundane, Reid also makes extensive use of TEs James O'Shaughnessy (6-4, 245), a rookie from Illinois State, and Demetrius Harris (6-7, 250), a third-year pro who played basketball at UW-Milwaukee. The Packers liked O'Shaughnessy, but after he went in the fifth round they settled on Kennard Backman in the sixth. O'Shaughnessy, who runs 4.69, is a fluid mover with receptions for 30 and 24 yards. Harris is by far the best blocker. Former Eagle Jeremy Maclin (6-0, 198) is the Chiefs' best WR in years. He has 4.44 speed, is tough for his size and doesn't drop many. WRs Albert Wilson (5-9, 200), De'Anthony Thomas (5-8½, 176), veteran Jason Avant (6-0½, 210) and rookie Chris Conley (6-2, 205) don't offer much. Wilson and Thomas are fast little specialty players, Avant is a slow, crafty slot and Conley is a talented, green third-round pick.

Offensive line
The interior starters are new. LG Ben Grubbs (6-2½, 310), a former Raven-Saint, was acquired in March for a fifth-round pick. A Pro Bowl pick in 2013, he's on the downside at 31 but uses his hands well, knows how to play and still shows balance and feet. Rookie C Mitch Morse (6-5½, 305), a second-round pick, is tall for the position and short-armed (32¼ inches). However, he's smart (29 on the Wonderlic intelligence test), very strong, plays hard and exudes confidence. Canadian RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (6-4½, 321), a sixth-round pick in '14, is brawny, highly athletic and packs a big punch with his massive hands (111/8 inches). He's also impatient and prone to making youthful mistakes. LT Donald Stephenson (6-5½, 312), a third-round pick in '12 with 17 career starts, has shown signs of becoming a respectable player. He uses long arms (347/8) and good feet to steer edge rushers, but is rather soft in the run game. Eric Fisher (6-7½, 315), the No. 1 pick in '13, should be back from a mid-August high ankle sprain. He's a top athlete but still just an average player. Ex-Raven RT Jah Reid (6-7, 325) was up and down as the Weeks 1-2 starter.

Quarterbacks
Alex Smith (6-4, 217) owns a 58-48-1 record in 11 seasons. If it comes down to Smith making great throws in tight windows, his team often loses. He isn't all that accurate, and despite his immense seasoning his decision-making and pocket management still leave much to be desired. When Smith settles his feet down and remains patient in the pocket, he's effective. He owns one of the NFL's highest Wonderlic scores (40), ran 4.73 entering the draft, is a very gifted athlete and has the arm strength to attempt almost all the throws. Despite many injuries, he remains a threat to run on the zone read and on scrambles. Chase Daniel (6-0, 225) is the gritty backup.

Running backs
Despite 1,557 touches from scrimmage, Jamaal Charles (5-11, 199) still plays to his 4.40 speed of seven years ago. He's one of the NFL's only true breakaway backs. From 8 to 8½ yards deep, he flows into his runs. He can make jump cuts in traffic, doesn't take many hard shots, is a terrific receiver and a tough guy, too. He does fumble too much. Knile Davis (5-11½, 227), a third-round pick in '13, is even faster than Charles (4.38) but doesn't avoid well. FB Anthony Sherman (5-10, 242), a fifth-round pick in '11, is a rugged in-line blocker and a capable receiver.

DEFENSE
Scheme
Coordinator Bob Sutton, who held the same post with the Jets under coach Eric Mangini from 2006-'08, directs a very aggressive version of the 3-4. It's a complex defense, and Sutton likes playing veterans. The Chiefs have been a press-man team in recent years.

Defensive line
NT-DE Jaye Howard (6-3, 320) dominated Denver's O-line last week. He knocked blockers backward, menaced Peyton Manning and wouldn't budge at the point. After drafting Howard in the fourth round in '12, Seattle cut him in August 2013 because of laziness. At 26, he might finally be realizing his immense potential. Allen Bailey (6-3, 288), a two-year starter at 5-technique, still might be the Chiefs' best D-lineman. He has tremendous strength, pass-rush moves, a relentless approach and knack for finding the ball. One-time Jet DE Mike DeVito (6-3, 310), a five-year starter, doesn't easily budge as a thick, technically superior 3-4 run stuffer. However, he has no pass rush. NT Dontari Poe (6-3½, 330), the 11th pick in '12, already has made the Pro Bowl twice with his ability to anchor (44 reps on the bench press), run (4.91) and make plays. He underwent back surgery (disc) in July and is working his way back into the lineup. His snap count increased from 32 to 49 last week.

Linebackers
LOLB Justin Houston (6-3, 258) eclipsed ROLB Tamba Hali (6-3, 275) as the team's premier pass rusher with his 22-sack campaign in '14. Houston slipped to the third round in '11 because of character and maturity issues. As Houston changed his priorities, his game expanded to the point where he might be the NFL's best outside rusher. With his long arms (34½), big hands (107/8), 4.65 speed and exceptional strength, he can win inside or outside with acceleration or power. He also routinely sheds TEs in the run game. Hali, a distinguished 10-year veteran, has lost some but certainly not all of his stinger. Every now and then he still can win off the edge. His pressures come more from savvy, strength and a reckless, relentless drive to sack. OLB Dee Ford (6-2, 252), the 23rd pick in '14, is a speed rusher with a quick take-off. Ex-Packers Frank Zombo (6-3½, 254) and Dezman Moses (6-2, 249) rank No. 4 and No. 5 outside. WILB Derrick Johnson (6-3, 242) needs five tackles to break Gary Spani's club record of 999. Last year, he blew out his Achilles in Week 1. A two-time Pro Bowl pick, Johnson still has blazing speed, a nose for the ball and pass rush-cover skills. At 32, he likes taking on blocks less and less. SILB Josh Mauga (6-1½, 245) is a seventh-year journeyman with limited speed and coverage ability. He played under Sutton in New York and is assignment-sure.

Secondary
Rookie CB Marcus Peters (5-11½, 197), the 18th pick, is off to a red-hot start with two interceptions and seven passes defensed. He's an emotional, fluid, graceful player with 4.50 speed, competitive fire and a no-fear attitude. He has tackled well, too. With No. 1 CB Sean Smith suspended for another game, Phillip Gaines (6-0, 193) starts and Jamell Fleming (5-11, 206) is No. 3. Gaines, a third-round pick in '14, is a blazer (4.35) who moves inside in sub. His lack of bulk hurts him at the ball; he'll try to run support. Playing for his fourth team in four years, Fleming is coming off a brutal, confidence-sapping showing against Denver. He runs well (4.46) and has improved his tackling, but time after time he folds in the clutch. SS Ron Parker (6-0, 206) was cut eight times by four teams from 2011-'13 before winning a starting job last year. He runs in the 4.3s, has maximized his learning ability and at least tries to be physical. Parker is playing better than Eric Berry (5-11½, 212), who seems tentative in his comeback from Hodgkins' lymphoma. Former Viking Husain Abdullah (6-0, 204) runs the show as a dime safety but lacks speed.

SPECIAL TEAMS
K Cairo Santos is accurate inside 50. P Dustin Colquitt is solid directionally and inside the 20. De'Anthony Thomas (punts) and Knile Davis (kickoffs) are major threats. Coordinator Dave Toub is highly regarded.

***

GAME-BREAKER
RB Jamaal Charles is the NFL's all-time leader in yards per carry (5.47) among players with 1,000 or more rushes. Jim Brown is second at 5.22, followed by Barry Sanders (4.99), Adrian Peterson (4.95) and Paul Lowe (4.87). Charles, the Chiefs' all-time leading rusher, was named the team's most valuable player in 2009, '10, '12 and '13. Last week against Denver, he lost a pair of fumbles, including one that was returned for the winning TD in the final minute. He has lost 18 of his 26 career fumbles. This will be his first game against the Packers.

WEAKEST LINK
No Chiefs wide receiver has caught a TD pass since the 45-44 wild-card playoff defeat against Indianapolis on Jan. 4, 2014, when the departed Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery each scored. To remedy the situation, the Chiefs in March signed probably the best wide receiver on the unrestricted free-agent market, Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin, to a five-year contract with $22.5 million guaranteed. Maclin has played well, but the Chiefs are making do for now with Albert Wilson as the other starter until rookie Chris Conley is ready to take over.

McGINN'S VIEW
In some eyes, Alex Smith remains little more than a draft-day mistake. He'll forever be known as the No. 1 pick by the 49ers in the 2005 draft that saw Aaron Rodgers fall to Green Bay at No. 24.

Smith's story line is familiar. He battled ineffectiveness, injuries, mediocre supporting casts and six coordinators in his first six seasons.

In 2011, the 49ers went 13-3 before losing in overtime to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. Given a fresh start under new coach Jim Harbaugh, Smith played well.

In 2012, the 49ers opened at Lambeau Field with a 30-22 victory. Smith was a model of efficiency, completing 20 of 26 passes for 211 yards, two TDs and no interceptions.

Smith had become the master of conservative football. When he felt pressure that afternoon, he just secured the ball, went into the fetal position, took his medicine (four sacks) and relied on his Pro Bowl punter (Andy Lee) and a rugged defense to carry the day.

Two months later, Smith was finished in Frisco. He suffered a concussion at midseason, opening the window for Colin Kaepernick. It's all the second-year man needed.

When two former Packers, GM John Dorsey and coach Andy Reid, took over the 2-14 Chiefs in January 2013, their quarterback depth chart showed Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. So in mid-March they traded a pair of second-round draft choices for Smith.

Kansas City soared to 11-5 and a wild-card playoff berth in 2013 before falling short last season at 9-7. Smith earned a four-year contract extension on the eve of the 2014 season that guarantees him $45 million.

Smith's career passer rating of 83.0 ranks 35th all-time, 18th among active quarterbacks. He's just behind Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford, just ahead of Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck and Michael Vick.

His three-game playoff rating is 108.6.

Smith can't match Rodgers when it comes to anything on a football field. Still, as he demonstrated three years ago this month, he can beat the Packers at Lambeau Field.

Perseverance does pay off in pro football.
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Sixty_Six_Ray said:
Theory or not KC HAS A CRAP passing game and a good RB. This game won't be that close. We tend to make monsters of moles
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There are no moles in KC's front 7, but many monsters. If the interior OL can protect again like it did last week we'll be OK.

Looking at the schedule, we play some hellacious DL's this year and Seattle was just the beginning. But so far it looks like last week and this week represent the best secondaries we're going to face, so sledding there should lighten up a little after Monday.
 
I got home from a business trip to Milwaukee just in time to see the Chiefs totally collapse against the Broncos on Thursday night. Since I really don’t like Peyton Manning (I have my reasons), this made me sad.

But, of course, I hope the Chiefs are pummeled into dust this week via a remorseless beatdown by the Packers.

Here are some matchups to pay attention to:

Packers vs. Their Emotions

After a huge win over the Seahawks – a team which the Packers have a ton of heartbreak against – it seems only natural that they may let their guard down a bit. Combine that with the fact that next week’s game is against the 49ers – another team with a lot of recent history – this seems like it could be a trap game. If the Packers come into this game sluggish, they’ll pay for it.

Nate Palmer vs. Jamaal Charles

Speaking purely as a receiver out of the backfield, Jamaal Charles is decent. Pro Football Focus ranks him lower than I would have thought: 45th out of 57 pass catching running backs in 2014, 5th out of 55 in 2013 and 39th out of 59 in 2012. Over the past four seasons, he averages 3.28 catches per game for 26.98 yards and .30 touchdowns. That’s not overly impressive (certainly not the kind of numbers I would have expected), but, at the very least, he’s a functional pass-catching running back.

In two games this season, Nate Palmer has performed pretty well when covering the opposing running back. In Week 1, he allowed 1 catch to Matt Forte (on 3 targets) for 4 yards. Last week against Marshawn Lynch, allowed 1 catch (on 3 targets) for 1 yard. It’s obviously a small sample size, but that’s a pretty good start. I don’t think he’s going to completely lock down Charles in this game, but Palmer’s play in coverage could be key to slowing down the Chiefs check-down attack.

Which leads us to…

The Middle Of The Packers Defense vs. Alex Smith

Over the last couple of seasons, the part of the field Alex Smith loves the most is in the middle; 0-19 yards deep. This makes sense, as he is allergic to throwing to wide receivers. (Fun fact: to get Smith to throw to wide receivers, coaches have to refer to them as “tall running backs”). Last season when throwing to this area, he completed 69.4% of his passes with an average of 8.69 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Not eye-popping numbers, but good enough to move his team down the field.

Just looking at this year, the Packers seem to have a weak spot in their passing defense down the middle, 0-19 yards deep. (Judging by the fact that A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones patrolled the middle for years, this has been a weak spot of theirs for a long time). For this season, opponents are completing 73.9% of their passes in that area, for an average of 88 yards a game (7.65 yards per attempt), 1 touchdown and 1 interception. The Packers defense looks better than they did last season (at times), but this still seems to be a weak point for them. I have faith that they’ll get better as the season goes on, but they’re still vulnerable at the moment. I’m curious to see how they do when Smith goes to this part of the field.

David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay vs. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali

Against the Seahawks, both Bakhtiari (-4.9) and Barclay (-5.9) were absolutely abused by the Seahawks pass rush. Combined, they gave up 2 sacks and 16 hurries. Those hurries easily could have been hits or sacks if Aaron Rodgers hadn’t been wearing Stanley’s Magic Shoes.

This season, Houston and Hali have combined for 3 sacks, 3 hits and 12 hurries. Bakhtiari and Barclay are going to have to step up their play this week or Rodgers will be under siege from the first snap.

Quick hits:

– It’s great to see Eric Berry back on the field, having been cleared of cancer only 9 months after the intial diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. I love watching him play.

– Brian Bulaga had surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee and is expected to be out 4-6 weeks. Here’s to hoping Rodgers survives that long.

– Through two games, Jeremy Maclin is averaging 4.5 catches (on 8 targets) for 54.5 yards (6.81 yards per target). To put that in perspective, last season he averaged 5.31 catches (on 8.94 targets) for 82.38 yards (9.22 yards per target).

– I’m a big fan of James Starks, but let’s all hope that Eddie Lacy is healthy enough to play on Monday.

Thank you for reading. Dusty Evely is a featured writer for Titletown Sound Off. You can follow him on Twitter @DustyEvely. For even more Packers content, follow us on Twitter and Like us on Facebook.

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