Baylor is only ineligible in my head, they remain eligible in the eyes of the NCAA and the Big XIIthat's the main reason i posted it here. but one thing that had me scratching my head was that they give baylor an 8% chance of making the playoffs. but you said, they are not eligible. are you sure about that? they played in a bowl last year and i find numerous articles discussing their chances for the playoffs.
The reason I slapped a five year shutdown on them is because the fallout from the 2016 revelation of the detestable football culture should have been enough to have the NCAA step in and shut it down. Jim Tressel got a show-cause placed on him for the tattoos OSU players were getting, Briles appears to have known that worse was happening at Baylor and he simply got fired, and a whole bunch of people went to bat for him.
The lawsuits are still going (and some are now being settled) which may have something to do with it, but people get up in arms about the NCAA punishing a program for past misdeeds. In this case you had the coaching staff who enabled this, as well as some of the offending players, still in the program. A bunch of people got fired, a few resigned, some of the former players are in jail, but the only thing that happened to the program is the Big XII gave them a 25% reduction in conference earnings. No scholarships were retracted or restricted, no wins vacated, nothing as of yet from the NCAA as far as I know.
EDIT: A heavily pro-Baylor (or anti-NCAA) football article from the Fort Worth Star Telegram from Feb 2019 says the NCAA is investigating and it's ongoing.