Bang for draft ammo

[salmar80]

I was actually expecting that someone would find a fatal flaw in my method/idea, and that would be the end of it. But it hasn't happened yet.

I agree that CarAV is a fuzzy measure, but at least it's purely stats-based and mathematical - No subjectivity involved, like on PFF. Also free, and it allows for easy comparisons. All-pros and pro-bowlers get a pretty significant bump in CarAV, and it also weighs premium positions higher, so it does reward extra points to key playmakers. I'm not good enough in math to tear the algorithm apart, so I just choose to trust Pro Football Reference knows what it's doing.

Trade value chart has some outright silly aspects, but somehow it's still in actual use. The 1st overall pick (trade value 3000) is worth 1500 last tradeable picks (trade value 2). It's also almost worth the entire bottom half of the draft. If you kept finding trade partners, you could theoretically fill the entire 53-man roster just by trading the top pick

 

[Mark87]

Reopened with the off topic stuff removed and everything redone, let's stay on topic and if you can't agree then ignore that user or better yet keep your bloody hands off the key board like big boys and girls.

Continue Salmar80 ... interesting stuff.

 

[salmar80]

Reopened with the off topic stuff removed and everything redone, let's stay on topic and if you can't agree then ignore that user or better yet keep your bloody hands off the key board like big boys and girls.

Continue Salmar80 ... interesting stuff.

Thanks, Mark87. Sorry for going off-topic.

Where do we rank on average position of draft over the years of Ted's tenure?

Couldn't find it off the bat. Do you mean original draft position or including trades?

McCarthy's winning percentage is third to only Belichick and 4 years of Jim Harbaugh, so the Packers' average draft position has to be among the very lowest.

 

[oakleaf]

Thanks, Mark87. Sorry for going off-topic.


Couldn't find it off the bat. Do you mean original draft position or including trades?

McCarthy's winning percentage is third to only Belichick and 4 years of Jim Harbaugh, so the Packers' average draft position has to be among the very lowest.

Part of determining draft performance is how well you parlay your picks from the original draft position so I went by original draft order.

If you look at the Thompson years, our average draft order position is 22.6, the fourth worst. (Teams worse are Steelers at 22.7, Colts at 24.8 and Pats at 27.4.) Over the McCarthy years, you are correct... we have the third worst job order position. Finally, if you look at just the last five years our average draft order position is 27.4 with only the Pats having it worse at 29.8.

Like you implied, draft order position is indirectly related to wins and playoff performance position. Since our draft order position is trending worse, this means our combined wins and playoff performance has to have continued to improve over Ted Thompson's reign. Because of this and the fact we avoid Free Agency, this is a good indicator that Thompson's Draft and Development has been and is a solid and consistent approach. We will be in the hunt every year.

However, it also highlights the fact that we haven't converted that success into a Super Bowl victory these past five years. I understand the frustration fans feel over this.

So do we be patient, believing that eventually we'll repeat 2010 (which really isn't that long ago) or do we move into another direction believing that we just can't get over that hump with these clowns running the show?

 

[salmar80]

Part of determining draft performance is how well you parlay your picks from the original draft position so I went by original draft order.

If you look at the Thompson years, our average draft order position is 22.6, the fourth worst. (Teams worse are Steelers at 22.7, Colts at 24.8 and Pats at 27.4.) Over the McCarthy years, you are correct... we have the third worst job order position. Finally, if you look at just the last five years our average draft order position is 27.4 with only the Pats having it worse at 29.8.

Like you implied, draft order position is indirectly related to wins and playoff performance position. Since our draft order position is trending worse, this means our combined wins and playoff performance has to have continued to improve over Ted Thompson's reign. Because of this and the fact we avoid Free Agency, this is a good indicator that Thompson's Draft and Development has been and is a solid and consistent approach. We will be in the hunt every year.

However, it also highlights the fact that we haven't converted that success into a Super Bowl victory these past five years. I understand the frustration fans feel over this.

So do we be patient, believing that eventually we'll repeat 2010 (which really isn't that long ago) or do we move into another direction believing that we just can't get over that hump with these clowns running the show?

Thanks for finding this stuff out!

Considering our average draft order position has been the fourth lowest, it's truly remarkable that TT has been able to keep this roster stocked and winning without resorting to free agency more.

Personally, I'd prefer that TT utilized FAs and trades a bit more. But I do not believe in the "signing a key FA will take us over the hump" -line of thought. TT usually manages to provide his coaches with enough talent to win it all with. But one-and-done playoffs are a fickle thing - Even league's best roster can falter in a single game. No amount of UFAs can guarantee a SB berth.

(Where'd you find the draft order before trades? PM me a link, would help me a lot!)

 

[oakleaf]

Thanks for finding this stuff out!

Considering our average draft order position has been the fourth lowest, it's truly remarkable that TT has been able to keep this roster stocked and winning without resorting to free agency more.

Personally, I'd prefer that TT utilized FAs and trades a bit more. But I do not believe in the "signing a key FA will take us over the hump" -line of thought. TT usually manages to provide his coaches with enough talent to win it all with. But one-and-done playoffs are a fickle thing - Even league's best roster can falter in a single game. No amount of UFAs can guarantee a SB berth.

One stupid mistake like Bostick's can be VERY costly. Or looking at it another way, one team breakdown at a critical time can be costly. Neither have much to do with draft and develop.

(Where'd you find the draft order before trades? PM me a link, would help me a lot!)

I emailed an original draft order spreadsheet to you.