Bang for draft ammo

[salmar80]

Since PFF has gone down the crapper, I guess I'll have to invent my own quirky stats.

Introducing: Bang for draft ammo (BANG) - A way to measure the efficiency of draft pick usage.

The basic idea is: The earlier you pick, the easier it is to grab good players. If you have a ton of early picks, it can be said that you have lots of draft ammunition (or capital) in your arsenal. A GM that can find quality players with less draft ammo should get credit for it.

BANG is rather simple: Combined career accomplishments of a draft class, measured in Career Approximate Value (CarAV) of Pro Football Reference, divided by the trade value of those draft picks (per standard trade value chart). And multiplied by 100 for easier reading.

CarAV of a draft class tells about its quality. It's how much those players have produced up to this day. Higher is better.

BANG score tells how efficiently a GM used the draft ammo available to him. (CarAV/Trade value of draft picks)*100. Higher is better.


Packers' drafts in TT era:

YEAR - Players' combined Career Approximate Value (CarAV), combined Trade Value of Picks (TVoP), BANG: (CarAV/TVoP)*100, Number of picks, Original 1st round draft position

2015 - CarAV: 13, TVoP: 1126, BANG: 1.15, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 30 (*see note below for recent drafts)
2014 - CarAV: 47, TVoP: 1541, BANG: 3.05, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 21
2013 - CarAV: 100, TVoP: 1241, BANG: 8.06, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 26
2012 - CarAV: 43, TVoP: 1444, BANG: 2.98, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 28
2011 - CarAV: 79, TVoP: 1108, BANG: 7.13, Picks: 10, Draft pos: 32
2010 - CarAV: 153, TVoP: 1405, BANG: 10.89, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 23
2009 - CarAV: 192, TVoP: 2226, BANG: 8.63, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 9
2008 - CarAV: 200, TVoP: 1490, BANG: 13.42, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 30* (traded down)
2007 - CarAV: 138, TVoP: 1696, BANG: 8.14, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 16
2006 - CarAV: 265, TVoP: 3208, BANG: 8.26, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 5
2005 - CarAV: 202, TVoP: 1657, BANG: 12.19, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 24

GB AVERAGE - CarAV/yr: 130.2, TVoP/yr: 1649, BANG/yr: 7.90, Picks/yr: 9.4, avg Draft pos: 22.2


How the NFC North teams compare 2005-2015:

GB Average - CarAV/yr: 130.2, TVoP/yr: 1649, BANG/yr: 7.90, Picks/yr: 9.4, Avg draft pos: 22.2
CHI Average - CarAV/yr: 79.6, TVoP/yr: 1469, BANG/yr: 5.42, Picks/yr: 7.2, Avg draft pos: 17.5
MIN Average - CarAV/yr: 89.5, TVoP/yr: 1999, BANG/yr: 4.48, Picks/yr: 8.1, Avg draft pos: 15.3
DET Average - CarAV/yr: 80.4, TVoP/yr: 2549, BANG/yr: 3.15, Picks/yr: 7.5, Avg draft pos: 10.5

- GB gets by far most bang for draft ammo. GB also gets the most production per draft class, has the most picks per draft AND has the lowest average draft position. The White Wizard truly rules the North in drafting!
- Our oft-panned 2011 draft (Sherrod, Cobb, Green, House...) has produced about the same amount of career value as Bears' and Detroit's average drafts....and for way less draft ammo spent.
- Da Bears have gotten the least talent outta drafts (and still suck), but have traded away so many early picks, their BANG is higher than in MIN and DET.
- The Lions are truly prodigious in their ability to waste draft picks.
- The standard trade value chart is waaaay too top heavy compared to actual production of players picked high.

Notes and clarifications:
- CarAV takes into account games played & started, individual and team stats. Gives a bonus for being all-pro or pro-bowler. Exact formula depends on the position.
- As CarAV measures cumulative playing time and stats over time, the most recent draft classes will naturally have smaller number than earlier ones.
- CarAV doesn't care if a players produces for original team or some other. For example, Letroy Guion's production in GB counts in favor of Vikings' 2008 CarAV.
- In calculating Trade Value of Picks (TVoP), comp picks were treated as normal picks. Any picks past pick 224 were given trade value of that last pick (2).
- You can do BANG calculations for other teams using these links:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/draft/draft-trade-chart/

 

[salmar80]

Bill Belichick VS Ted Thompson:

PATRIOTS since 2005: CarAV/yr: 99.4, TVoP/yr: 1619, BANG/yr: 6.14, Picks/yr: 9.1, Avg draft pos: 28
PACKERS since 2005: CarAV/yr: 130.2, TVoP/yr: 1649, BANG/yr: 7.90, Picks/yr: 9.4, Avg draft pos: 22.2

- During TT's tenure, Packers have actually gotten both better production AND better bang for draft ammo than NE. Way to draft TT!
- But look below for BB's first five years and despair...
- Patriots' 2010 draft is pretty legendary. 2005 and 2009 stand out, too. 2007 and 2008...not so much.
- BB has shrewdly traded 1st rounders for next year's higher 1st rounders (and done countless other trades) to offset perennially low draft position. Thus Patriots have managed to amass nearly the same draft ammo as Packers during TT era.
- Both TT and BB are (comp) pick hogs, and average over 9 picks a draft.


PATRIOTS:
2015 - CarAV: 23, TVoP: 1243, BANG: 1.85, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 32
2014 - CarAV: 30, TVoP: 1129, BANG: 2.66, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 29
2013 - CarAV: 50, TVoP: 1097, BANG: 4.56, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 29* (trade down)
2012 - CarAV: 75, TVoP: 2097, BANG: 3.58, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 31* (trade up)
2011 - CarAV: 104, TVoP: 2397, BANG: 4.34, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 28* (traded for next year)
2010 - CarAV: 189, TVoP: 2077, BANG: 9.10, Picks: 12, Draft pos: 24* (trade down)
2009 - CarAV: 159, TVoP: 2254, BANG: 7.05, Picks: 12, Draft pos: 23* (trade down)
2008 - CarAV: 66, TVoP: 1994, BANG: 3.31, Picks: 7, Draft Pos: 31* (forfeit)
2007 - CarAV: 46, TVoP: 883, BANG: 5.21, Picks: 9, Draft Pos: 28* (traded for next year)
2006 - CarAV: 115, TVoP: 1712, BANG: 6.72, Picks: 10, Draft Pos: 21
2005 - CarAV: 236, TVoP: 927, BANG: 25.49, Picks: 7, Draft Pos: 32
2004 - CarAV: 131, TVoP: 1926, BANG: 6.80, Picks: 8, Draft Pos: 32
2003 - CarAV: 260, TVoP: 2297, BANG: 11.32, Picks: 10, Draft Pos: 19* (traded for next year)
2002 - CarAV: 122, TVoP: 1175, BANG: 10.38, Picks: 6, Draft Pos: 32* (traded up)
2001 - CarAV: 188, TVoP: 2416, BANG: 7.79, Picks: 10, Draft Pos: 6
2000 - CarAV: 214, TVoP: 801, BANG: 26.72, Picks: 10, Draft Pos: 16* (traded for Belichick)

PATRIOTS since 2000: CarAV/yr: 125.5, TVoP/yr: 1652, BANG/yr: 7.60, Picks/yr: 9, Avg draft pos: 25.8

- These first 5 years laid foundation to the Pats' long term success. Not one weak draft. ninja)
- Drafted five eventual All-Pro players in five years.

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CarAV = Combined Career Approximate Value of draft picks (Pro Football Reference)
TVoP = Combined trade value of picks (standard trade value chart)
BANG = (CarAV/TVoP)*100
Picks= Total number of picks in draft
Draft pos = Original 1st round draft position

 

[44blitz]

You can do all the fancy calculations and conclusions
you like but ultimately it comes down to winning SB... since 2004 here are your winners

New England
New England
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
New York Giants
Pittsburgh
New Orleans
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
Baltimore
Seattle
New England
Denver

I don't care about close.. who made it to the playoffs, how many all pro's etc. That's all fluff and BS. History will remember the teams above because they won the prize .. not because they got close or their "bang" rating was good.

That is ultimately the tale of how you drafted and how you ran personal.

 

[Mark87]

Since PFF has gone down the crapper

No they have grown more middle of the road and they tend to look at things realistically not through a fans eyes.I find their grading system fairly accurate.

 

[salmar80]

You can do all the fancy calculations and conclusions
you like but ultimately it comes down to winning SB... since 2004 here are your winners

New England
New England
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
New York Giants
Pittsburgh
New Orleans
Green Bay Packers
New York Giants
Baltimore
Seattle
New England
Denver

I don't care about close.. who made it to the playoffs, how many all pro's etc. That's all fluff and BS. History will remember the teams above because they won the prize .. not because they got close or their "bang" rating was good.

That is ultimately the tale of how you drafted and how you ran personal.

Excuse my excitement. I've never invented anything stat-related before.

Of course SB wins are the most important thing. I think good drafting is one way reach for that goal, and my "bang" -invention is a new way to view drafting.

My "bang" analysis so far seems to say TT is on par with BB as a drafter. And head and shoulders above any NFC North team in that aspect. I think that's pretty cool data. I wasn't sure it would be so beforehand, since TT sure has his misses.

It doesn't tell anything about any other aspect of GM work, serve as an excuse for not winning SBs or anything of the sort. Just another tool.

 

[salmar80]

No they have grown more middle of the road and they tend to look at things realistically not through a fans eyes.I find their grading system fairly accurate.

For me, PFF lost most of their utility when they decided to exclude their signature stats from the normal paying audience.

Their grading system may be better now, but it's also less transparent and very simplistic. Nothing they now offer helps me understand where that grade comes from. Or allow me to learn more about football or its' players. Shame.

 

[Mark87]

For me, PFF lost most of their utility when they decided to exclude their signature stats from the normal paying audience.

Their grading system may be better now, but it's also less transparent and very simplistic. Nothing they now offer helps me understand where that grade comes from. Or allow me to learn more about football or its' players. Shame.

I admit I liked the old format but you need to understanding grading each position in a FB game is painstaking task. They got crucified every time someones favorite player didn't get a positive grade. I get why they did it.. stinks we lost the resource.

 

[salmar80]

Ozzie Newsome vs Ted Thompson:

RAVENS since 2005: CarAV/yr: 99.9, TVoP/yr: 1432, BANG/yr: 6.98, Picks/yr: 8.3, Avg draft position: 22.7
PACKERS since 2005: CarAV/yr: 130.2, TVoP/yr: 1649, BANG/yr: 7.90, Picks/yr: 9.4, Avg draft position: 22.2

- TT beats Newsome head-to-head as a drafter. More production per draft and better bang for draft ammo, despite near identical average draft position.
- Newsome's lost a lot of draft ammo along the way due his trades. And has a pick less per draft, despite being a comp pick fan. Weird.

RAVENS:
2015 - CarAV: 12, TVoP: 1379, BANG: 0.87, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 26
2014 - CarAV: 45, TVoP: 1784, BANG: 2.52, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 17
2013 - CarAV: 58, TVoP: 1189, BANG: 4.88, Picks: 10, Draft pos: 32
2012 - CarAV: 70, TVoP: 1208, BANG: 5.79, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 29* (trade down)
2011 - CarAV: 101, TVoP: 1287, BANG: 7.85, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 26* (allowed clock expire)
2010 - CarAV: 56, TVoP: 1177, BANG: 4.76, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 25* (trade down)
2009 - CarAV: 107, TVoP: 1327, BANG: 8.06, Picks: 6, Draft pos: 23
2008 - CarAV: 179, TVoP: 1887, BANG: 9.49, Picks: 10, Draft pos: 8* (trade down)
2007 - CarAV: 152, TVoP: 1127, BANG: 13.49, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 29
2006 - CarAV: 229, TVoP: 1887, BANG: 12.14, Picks: 10, Draft pos: 13* (trade up)
2005 - CarAV: 90, TVoP: 1504, BANG: 5.99, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 22
2004 - CarAV: 48, TVoP: 633, BANG: 7.58, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 21* (trade down)
2003 - CarAV: 263, TVoP: 2524, BANG: 10.42, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 10
2002 - CarAV: 222, TVoP: 1309, BANG: 16.96, Picks: 10, Draft pos: 24

RAVENS since 2002: CarAV/yr: 116.6, TVoP/yr: 1444, BANG/yr: 8.07, Picks/yr: 8.5, Avg draft position: 21.8

- Newsome's first two drafts were awesome. Yielded All-Pros Suggs and Reed plus several other contributors. (2006-2009 stretch was special, too)
- That was offset by sub-par 2004 and 2005 drafts. 2010 was bad, as well.
- Had Newsome found a QB earlier than 2008...

------
CarAV = Combined Career Approximate Value of draft picks (Pro Football Reference)
TVoP = Combined trade value of picks (standard trade value chart)
BANG = (CarAV/TVoP)*100
Picks= Total number of picks in draft
Draft pos = Original 1st round draft position

 

[salmar80]

John Schneider vs Ted Thompson:

SEAHAWKS since 2010: CarAV/yr: 106.5, TVoP/yr: 1416, BANG/yr: 7.52, Picks/yr: 9.3, Avg draft position: 21.8
PACKERS since 2010: CarAV/yr: 72.5, TVoP/yr: 1311, BANG/yr: 5.53, Picks/yr: 8.8, Avg draft position: 26.7

Including years before Schneider:
SEAHAWKS since 2005: CarAV/yr: 106.5, TVoP/yr: 1392, BANG/yr: 7.65, Picks/yr: 8.5, Avg draft pos: 21.9
PACKERS since 2005: CarAV/yr: 130.2, TVoP/yr: 1649, BANG/yr: 7.90, Picks/yr: 9.4, Avg draft pos: 22.2

- Schneider beats TT due to truly epic string of first three drafts. Despite better draft position and more ammo, he has amassed impressive amount of talent. His BANG/yr is remarkable considering how recent these drafts are (CarAV accumulates over time).
- Before Schneider arrived, the Seahawks went through a pair of bad drafts and some mediocre ones.
- Trading 1st rounders for Harvin, Graham and Branch have bit seriously into Seahawks' draft ammo.
- Schneider's latest drafts pale in comparison with the first three. 2013 looks especially bad so far.
- Schneider loves to trade down and gather picks. Very TT -like in that regard.
- TT has had some poor drafts since Schneider left (2011, especially 2012), but also beats Schneider in others (2013 and 2014 so far). Doesn't support the notion of Schneider being an irreplaceable draft asset.

SEAHAWKS:
2015 - CarAV: 13, TVoP: 641, BANG: 2.03, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 31* (trade for Graham)
2014 - CarAV: 26, TVoP: 932, BANG: 2.79, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 32* (trade down)
2013 - CarAV: 31, TVoP: 614, BANG: 5.05, Picks: 11, Draft pos: 25* (trade for Harvin)
2012 - CarAV: 199, TVoP: 1918, BANG: 10.38, Picks: 10, Draft pos: 12 (trade down)
2011 - CarAV: 180, TVoP: 1211, BANG: 14.86, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 25
2010 - CarAV: 190, TVoP: 3178, BANG: 5.98, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 6

Before Schneider:
2009 - CarAV: 77, TVoP: 2372, BANG: 3.25, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 4
2008 - CarAV: 94, TVoP: 1278, BANG: 7.36, Picks: 7, Draft pos: 28
2007 - CarAV: 113, TVoP: 666, BANG: 16.97, Picks: 8, Draft pos: 24 (traded for Branch)
2006 - CarAV: 110, TVoP: 950, BANG: 11.58, Picks: 6, Draft pos: 31
2005 - CarAV: 138, TVoP: 1552, BANG: 8.89, Picks: 9, Draft pos: 23


------
CarAV = Combined Career Approximate Value of draft picks (Pro Football Reference)
TVoP = Combined trade value of picks (standard trade value chart)
BANG = (CarAV/TVoP)*100
Picks= Total number of picks in draft
Draft pos = Original 1st round draft position

 

[oakleaf]

I thoroughly enjoyed your post salmar! Very good analysis. Where do we rank on average position of draft over the years of Ted's tenure?

What we are doing is Data Mining. Data Mining is a way of looking at data and stats in search of consistent patterns, and relationships in the data and then validating the findings by applying the patterns to wins and comparisons to other teams, coaches, GMs, etc. The ultimate goal of data mining is prediction which makes sports more fun for some of us as it provides a more objective idea of how our team will perform rather than the very subjective method of proclaiming "Terd sucks, and that's why the Packers will lose!"