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Enough of non-conference play, it is time for the 2016 Wisconsin Badgers football program to sink or swim. Of course that means tackling perhaps the most insane slate of conference games in the history of the Big Ten.
It also means starting off at a place that the Badgers have historically hated playing at — Michigan State.
These two teams put on some epic shows in the early part of this decade, but the once hottest of non-rivalries that were really good games has cooled down thanks to a lack of games the last two years. With both programs on the upswing nationally, now is as perfect a time as any to renew hostilities.
However, since the break in the series, what doe the Spartans of 2016 actually look like? We’re here to give the lowdown on the MSU defense heading in to Saturday’s game.
Starters:
*2016 season stats included
WR (X): Felton Davis III – So. (6-4, 192) — 3 receptions, 40 yards, 1 touchdown
WR (F): R.J. Shelton – Sr. (5-11, 202) — 8 receptions, 80 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 attempts, 48 yards rushing
WR (Z): Monty Madaris – Sr. (6-1, 207) — 7 receptions, 125 yards; 1 attempt 12 yards rushing
TE: Josiah Price – Sr. (6-4, 248) — 3 receptions, 45 yards, 1 touchdown
LT: David Beedle – So. (6-5, 314) — 3rd career start at LT, made 10 appearances at LG in 2015 season
LG: Brian Allen – Jr. (6-2, 304) — Preseason All-Big Ten, Outland and Rimington Watch Lists
C: Kodi Kieler – Sr. (6-6, 319) — 21 career starts, mainly at RT
RG: Brandon Clemons – Sr. (6-3, 302) — 3 career starts, 35 games played in career
RT: Miguel Machado – Sr. (6-6, 315) — 3rd career start, appeared in seven games during 2015 season
QB: Tyler O’Connor – Sr. (6-3, 228) — 32-43, 431 yards, 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 183.42 efficiency rating
RB: LJ Scott – So. (6-1, 230) — 42 attempts, 203 yards, 2 touchdowns; 1 reception, 3 yards
FB: Delton Williams – Sr. (6-1, 228) — no stats of note
Team Rankings:
Michigan State Offense Rankings: (Stat/B1G/National) *according to CFBstats.com
Total Offense: 431.0 ypg — 9th — 58th
Scoring Offense: 32.0 ppg — 10th — 64th
Passing Offense: 215.5 ypg — 10th— 75th
Rushing Offense: 215.5 ypg — 7th — 41st
Badgers Defense Rankings: (Stat/B1G/National)
Total Defense: 261.0 ypg — 1st — 14th
Scoring Defense: 13.7 ppg – 2nd — 16th
Passing Defense: 178.7 ypg — 4th — 32nd
Rushing Defense: 82.3 ypg — 2nd — 13th
Advanced Stats Look:
*via Football Outsiders and Football Study Hall (stat/national rank)
Michigan State Offense:
S&P+ offensive rating: 34.5 (36th)
F/+ ranking: 36.7% (13th)
Points Per Scoring Opp.: 5.3 (13 opportunities this season)
Offensive Success Rate: 47%
Wisconsin Defense:
S&P+ defensive rating: 16.0 (7th)
Def. Points Per Scoring Opp: 2.53 (just 10 opportunities given up)
Opp. Success Rate: 30.3%
(if you don’t know what these are, please see the link above as they tell you a lot about what to really expect out of an opponent in the early part of the season)
What to Take Away From the Stats:
There shouldn’t be a lot shocking about the statistical breakdown in this game. We all come in knowing that the Badgers defense has showed up in a big way early on this season. Perhaps the most telling stat is that UW has only given up 10 scoring opportunities to opponents so far this season and no more than four in any single game.
It stands in stark contrast to the Spartans, who are averaging 5.3 scoring opportunities per game with just two contests to draw from against suspect defenses at best (sorry Notre Dame fans). Something is going to have to give because it is hard to see how either side is just going to meet in the middle here and allow it to be a 20-24 point performance for Michigan State.
EAST LANSING, MI – SEPTEMBER 02: Lj Scott #3 of the Michigan State Spartans rushes for a touchdown during the first half of a game against the Furman Paladins at Spartan Stadium on September 2, 2016 in East Lansing, Michigan. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
3 Keys to Badgers Success:
Create Turnovers: Wisconsin sits on a zero in the turnover margin number, but that has more to do with what has been given up than what has been taken away. UW’s five takeaways over three games has them in a tie for fifth place in the B1G, meanwhile Michigan State has coughed up the football three times in just two games already. Getting after the quarterback and being aggressive in coverage could lead to the Badgers coming out ahead on Saturday morning/early afternoon. With a quarterback making just his fourth career start and Wilcox needing to protect his secondary at times, those turnovers are going to have to come because of pressure.
Limit the Big Play: If there was a red flag in the close win over Georgia State last weekend it was the ability for the Panthers to hit the big play when needed and do so late in the game. Michigan State has plenty of home run hitters in Shelton, London, Holmes and Scott — all of whom have gone for a gain of 20 yards or more already this season. Shelton has had a 32-yard run and a 23-yard reception on the young season. Wisconsin will be tested big time with what appears to be a depleted secondary in terms of experience. Being sure tacklers and not allowing any of the running backs that MSU may throw at them to get going is going to be huge in this game.
Simply put, MSU’s lowest rushing output this season is higher than any rushing game for a Wisconsin opponent so far this season. Something is going to give in that department and UW would be wise to find a way to bottle its performance against Leonard Fournette and release it on Saturday.
Get After Tyler O’Connor: Few will doubt the strength of the Spartans offense as being the offensive line. It has opened up some huge holes in the run game, but most importantly been solid in pass protection. So far this season MSU’s O-Line has allowed just two sacks against it, which is second in the Big Ten on the year.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin comes in to this game having racked up seven total sacks and averaging 2.33 sacks per game as a team. As we discussed before, limiting the big play is going to be huge if Wisconsin wants to win this game defensively. Helpful to that cause is being able to get after the quarterback and make O’Connor second-guess himself as well as fear for his own health in the form of an onslaught in front of him.
It means you’ll be wise to listen for the names of T.J. Watt and Vince Biegel, because that likely means they are tearing up the Spartans offensive line — a task far easier said than done. If Wisconsin can do that, it may accomplish all three of its goals in one single move (or a sack or three).
The post Wisconsin Badgers Opposition Research: Scouting the Michigan State Offense appeared first on Madtown Badgers.
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