The Stretch Run

dannobanano

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Packers on their bye week.
The stretch run (Weeks 14-18) are just ahead, and IMHO, the schedule to nail down HFA for the playoffs slightly favors the Packer versus the Cards and Buc’s.
Green Bay’s (9-3) final 5 games are:
Week 14 - CHI (H)
Week 15 - BALT (A)
Week 16 - CLEV (H)
Week 17 - MN (H)
Week 18 - DET (A)

The Packers primary opponents for HFA currently stand as (1) AZ and (2) TB
Green Bay holds the tiebreaker with AZ should it come down to that.
AZ ‘s (9-2) schedule (Weeks 13-18) is as follows:
Week 13 - CHI (A)
Week 14 - LAR (H)
Week 15 - DET (A)
Week 16 - INDY (H)
Week 17 - DAL (A)
Week 18 - SEA (H)
This is not an easy schedule for a team with a 1/2 game lead over GB, and which includes 2 divisional games and games against 3 teams fighting for playoff seeding. They will be tested.

Then turning to TB (currently 8-3).
Their final schedule is as follows:
Week 13 - ATL (A)
Week 14 - BUF (H)
Week 15 - NOLA (H)
Week 16 - CAR (A)
Week 17 - NYJ (A)
Week 18 - CAR (H)
A much easier schedule, but the BUF game looms large and they are a 1/2 game behind GB currently. It’s possible they could tie GB which would make things interesting.

GB needs to keep their nose to the grindstone. One game at a time.
Currently GB holds head to head tiebreaker with AZ, but AZ has a 4-0 division record to GB’s 2-1 division record and TB’s 1-1 division record.
Against NFC opponents the current records are:
GB 7-2
AZ 5-2
TB 5-3

There’s a lot of important football games yet to be played. Here’s hoping GB gets healthy both physically and mentally for a strong stretch run. Three games of Home Cooking in December is something not to be minimized.
 

Cheesedog

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Great write up!

Though I'm not nearly as concerned with HFA as I am with the team staying healthy. Rather have a road game as #2 seed than have HFA while missing some key people.

The Elephant in the room is ST. Doesn't matter what your reg season record if you go into the playoffs with bad ST you aren't going far. Hopefully ML can kick some a## and get them turned around.
 
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oakleaf

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Currently GB holds head to head tiebreaker with AZ, but AZ has a 4-0 division record to GB’s 2-1 division record and TB’s 1-1 division record.
Against NFC opponents the current records are:
GB 7-2
AZ 5-2
TB 5-3
Thanks for the write-up and posting of games left, Danno!

Division record will be meaningless in determining a tie-breaker between GB, AZ and TB assuming all win their respective division. (They will.)

If a tiebreaker is between only AZ and GB, then Packers win based on head-to-head. All other tie-breaking scenarios start with best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Against NFC opponents the current records are GB 7-2, AZ 6-2, TB 6-3.

Looks like Packers can lock up NFC North this weekend if they beat da Bears and if Queens lose to Steelers tonight.
 

rpiotr01

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The Elephant in the room is ST. Doesn't matter what your reg season record if you go into the playoffs with bad ST you aren't going far. Hopefully ML can kick some a## and get them turned around.
You’re more optimistic than I am. It’s December, ST are what they are. They will either be bitten by it in the playoffs or survive the predictable FG miss or two, I don’t think turning it around is possible.
 

dannobanano

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You’re more optimistic than I am. It’s December, ST are what they are. They will either be bitten by it in the playoffs or survive the predictable FG miss or two, I don’t think turning it around is possible.
Kinda get the feeling we see ML go for it more on 4th down, especially in the playoffs.
Won’t be seeing what happened last year against TB in the NFCC game.
 

oakleaf

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You’re more optimistic than I am. It’s December, ST are what they are. They will either be bitten by it in the playoffs or survive the predictable FG miss or two, I don’t think turning it around is possible.
Well, they've certainly recognized the issue with their recent stated need for and objective of "Perfection in the 'gold' zone" (i.e., a TD every time) the rest of the way.
 

GBP4EVER

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Kinda get the feeling we see ML go for it more on 4th down, especially in the playoffs.
Won’t be seeing what happened last year against TB in the NFCC game.
4TH and 20 at their 10 go for it!
 

Budman

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What's the #1 seed breakdown @GBP4EVER ? Pack have to win out or can they secure top seed with win tonight?
 
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