Packers sign WR Davante Adams to a multi-year contract extension

TW said:
Adams getting that much money might be a mistake. Until this year, he's been a sub-par performer. Now, in a contract year, he ends up being the "go to guy?"

I've always believed you judge a player on a "body of work," not just on a one year's level of performance. The problem is, in the NFL, that's the way it seems to go, way too often.

I honestly believe that Nelson is every bit as good as Adams, possibly better, and his savvy on the field would be of more value than Adams next year, except Thompson and McCarthy have spoken, and they liked what Adams did with Hundley, even though they did not evaluate him in conjunction with a good QB. He was the guy who ran the routes that Hundley could understand, not the routes that are usually game changers.

If you judge how Nelson played in the one game that Rodgers was back, that's not a valid point of reference. The entire offense was cut to what Hundley could handle, and they had Rodgers focusing on Adams.

Also, nobody is thinking in terms of the fact that it was obvious Nelson was playing with a bad shoulder for quite some time. Also overlooked is the fact that early in the season, when the Packers were racking up wins, it was Nelson making big plays, and moving the chains.

I don't like this bandwagon thing. I'm hearing the same things as I did when Cobb had his "great contract year," and gouged the Packers for a big chunk of guaranteed money, just like Adams. People forget way too soon.

If anything, I'm leery of guys who have great contract years. It tells me they were loafing until they saw the chance to make big bucks, and after they get it, they're going to return to being loafers. Why not? They have nothing to play for. It was all paid out front.
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Adams leads all NFL WR in touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season. He was hurt the year before and a rookie before that. How much of a body of work is it fair to expect from a guy only 4 years in? Draft picks take time to develop. Took Adams two years to get going and he’s been very productive the past two years, not just the contract year. He was the only WR still producing with Hundley under center, and that’s saying something because Hundley sucks.

I don’t have a problem with the signing or the money at all. The other WR cap hits will be taken care of in the coming months. It’s certainly out of whack right now but won’t be for long. The cap goes up and up and so will salaries.

Really my only concern is the concussions, that’s three big hits he’s taken in the past two years. But it’s a risk they had to take IMO. I’m glad he’ll still be around, though don’t be fooled, the WR group still needs to be restocked with talent.
 
Let's compare Nelson to Adams. Over the period of time you mentioned, Adams has 23 TDs, and Nelson has 20. Over three TDs, and a period of time. Those three TDs and have made Nelson irrelevant, and Adams the Packers best choice as a receiver?

I'm not that quick to jump on this bandwagon to deride Nelson. I've watched him play, and heard the same things about him when he first got to the Packers, how he wasn't worth keeping, too slow, the whole nine yards. Yet, he's come through, and been Rodgers favorite target, not because they're buddies, but because Rodgers knows he can throw to him at times when he can't throw to anyone else, because he works downfield, to get open, when plays are busted. Adams does not do that on a regular basis, and is not an Antonio Brown type receiver, and does not have world class sprinter speed to make him so fast he can outrun secondaries.

I'm not knocking Adams, and I'm not against signing him, and I don't really give a rip about the money. I just don't believe people should be so quick to throw Nelson under the bus and say he's "through," when he could still be one of the best in the league.

I'm not condoning the Adams money because I think he's great, I'm condoning it because I know he's better than Alshon Jeffries, and if he can make the kind of money he got, Adams deserves more.

At this time, when the chips are down in a game, and Rodgers needs that "one more completion" to keep the ball rolling and get into the end zone, exactly who does anyone think Rodgers will throw to, if they're all covered? My guess is Nelson, hands down.
 
Certainly, the contract can be looked at from many angles, and so can WR stats. However, outside of TDs (think of Bubba Franks), through that's worthy, Adams, this year, his second good one in a row, is 17th in receptions, 20th in YPG, and something like 65th in avgYPC. Not sure that rates a top-5 (currently, for next year, using the $14mil average) contract.
 
Yeah the caveat with Nelson for me is, just how hurt was he and for how long? In 2015 Cobb busted his shoulder in pre-season. He played through it all year but it really had a strong effect on his performance. Jordy has been sliding and going down easy all year. He may well have hurt it early on and that's why he's been avoiding contact and been unable to compete for contested throws. As far as his stats go, of course he's been wildly productive but he's past the age when you expect WR to start going downhill. I mean he's lasted longer than Jennings in terms of productivity. He's about the age when Donald Driver, the ageless wonder, started to go. With Adams they're looking at his past two years and making a bet he can do that again for the next three. With Jordy it's unreasonable to expect the same, hence the contract reduction talk.

TW said:
I'm not condoning the Adams money because I think he's great, I'm condoning it because I know he's better than Alshon Jeffries, and if he can make the kind of money he got, Adams deserves more.
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That's basically the bottom line.
 
Half Empty said:
Certainly, the contract can be looked at from many angles, and so can WR stats. However, outside of TDs (think of Bubba Franks), through that's worthy, Adams, this year, his second good one in a row, is 17th in receptions, 20th in YPG, and something like 65th in avgYPC. Not sure that rates a top-5 (currently, for next year, using the $14mil average) contract.
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I think your point is a good one. The problem is, the bar is going down, and the salary ranges going up, all because of increases in the cap. In my opinion, it's misguided, but the reality is, it is what it is. It's a question of getting on the bandwagon with salaries, or end up with sub-par receivers. I do believe that a big chunk of that prepaid money is coming out of our 2017 budget though, where we do have a few million left over, to smooth out the hit for the next few years.

In the case of the Packers, we all know that Rodgers is the key to winning, and as such, we need to keep, and find, more receivers who can complement his abilities. We have no defense, and our running game is never going to be more than adequate, so we have to concentrate on a strong offensive line, and the guys who can catch the ball, and put points on the board.

The Packers are caught in that SWC football type of situation. Gotta outscore that scoring machine, to win. Watching the SWC and their 45 points won't win football games is downright scary. They have to score every time they get the ball!

So, despite it being a lot of money, I do understand why they signed Adams, and hope he can fulfill his agreement. Now, let's see if he plays well, or ends up out of the game due to concussions. That might be where it ends up, as early as next year.

EDIT: In defense of Adams, the fact that Hundley couldn't throw a ball over 10 yards had an effect on all Packer receivers. The YPC goes down.
 
A lot of money. Adams is still quite young, but he is very dedicated to his craft and works hard. Someone alluded to the fact that some players just play hard in their contract year, I don't think this is that example.
The scariest thing to me is the concussions. Glad he isn't playing this week. Let him recover and hopefully it won't happen again. Both the recent concussions were total cheap shots so hopefully it isn't the Shields thing over again.

Interested to see how the contract pays out. What are the cap hits with its structure?
I know some would rather spend it on defense, me too, but on who? There aren't just guys out there like we're shopping for groceries. So I'd have to ask Who? Who would you spend the money on? The first wave of FA is almost always overpaid. Pass rushers are hardly ever available. Green Bay is still Green Bay and not an attractive destination for most FAs and after the second half of the season do you think the town has risen on anyone's list? It's a hard sell, that's the reality. A new DC might help sway some opinion. We need to convince the country that we are still to be reckoned with on the road to the SBs.
So, I'm glad we got it done. Adams was definitely a keeper. I'd argue that Linsley is also getting too much money and his play doesn't stand out at all. But again- what's the alternative?
 
Sounds like some of the money goes into the 2017 CAP so mitigates the impact.

I've given up trying to figure out contracts. I think the money is nuts, but they have really nothing but Adams to hang their hats on at WR so I think this was a must sign. (Plus, this is always the way it seems to go. The contract looks crazy and then in 2-3 years it's not even top-10 anymore.) Nelson and Cobb are both in decline so one or both could be gone in 2018 and both will certainly be gone for 2019.

The overall WR CAP number is nuts, but it's just a momentary glitch in football terms. Even if they do nothing with Nelson and Cobb, 2018 will be a single year outlier as the WR group will be cheap come 2019. It'll be Adams and 4-5 guys on rookie type deals - assuming no FA signing. Plus there is nobody to sign from the current group. Janis and Davis are just guys - minimum type deals at best. If you keep them at all, it's for special teams.
 
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