How important is 1st Seed?

[FlaPack]

so all the better if we completely avoid that first round.

oak presented two different scenarios. in one, the packers have to win three playoff games to get to the superbowl, and one of those three games is against the rams - the team you fear the most. in the second scenario, the packers only have to win only two games to get to the super bowl, and the rams are not a likely opponent.

honestly, i'm not as afraid of the rams as you are. they just lost to the previously winless jets with sam darnold as their qb. i will not be surprised if they lose in the first round of the playoffs.

i have seen you say multiple times that you believe there are no dominant teams - except maybe the chiefs, and the next 25 teams are pretty much equal. the good news is that we don't have to face the chiefs in the playoff games leading up to the superbowl. so that means we are playing against teams that are pretty much equal to ours during the playoffs. and if that is the case, then simple probability theory says that we have a much better chance of reaching the superbowl if we only have to win two games as opposed to three. and really, just logic should tell you that one less chance to lose players to injury is a big enough factor alone.

We can agree to disagree. LA & Tampa scare me. One game vs Jets is meh. It’s the NFL, NE posted 45 on the Chargers. LA’s defense front 7 is about as good as there is in the league and they have a damn good CB. We saw Tampa’s speed on defense. It’s one and done in January

 

[oakleaf]

Assume all NFC playoff teams are equal, HFA doesn't exist, and the bye week provides no benefit. Therefore all games have even odds. However, there's still three games to win vs. two games. This comparison is now the same as comparing the probability of flipping a coin three times and getting heads all three times vs. flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times. Simple math shows the probability of doing it twice is double that as doing it three times. (25% vs 12.5%)

However, Packinatl reminds us that "It's one and done in January". If so, he's correct. #1 seed is no advantage — the probability of NFC Championship is 0% either way.

If knowing things before they happen was so simple to me as it is to Packinatl I could agree with him and would have no need to discuss the importance of the #1 seed. In the meantime I will continue to have hope the Packers make the SB —and if there's hope there's a chance, and if there's a chance then it can only improve with the bye. I hope they get it.

Go PACK!

 

[Mark87]

Assume all NFC playoff teams are equal, HFA doesn't exist, and the bye week provides no benefit. Therefore all games have even odds. However, there's still three games to win vs. two games. This comparison is now the same as comparing the probability of flipping a coin three times and getting heads all three times vs. flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times. Simple math shows the probability of doing it twice is double that as doing it three times. (25% vs 12.5%)

However, Packinatl reminds us that "It's one and done in January". If so, he's correct. #1 seed is no advantage — the probability of NFC Championship is 0% either way.

If knowing things before they happen was so simple to me as it is to Packinatl I could agree with him and would have no need to discuss the importance of the #1 seed. In the meantime I will continue to have hope the Packers make the SB —and if there's hope there's a chance, and if there's a chance then it can only improve with the bye. I hope they get it.

Go PACK!

To be frank if he "knows things before " they will happen etc , your beyond stubborn and refuse to even give any viewpoint other than your's a consideration.... that's not it makes for a useless thread and conversation. I'll just lock this one down and we can go on our merry way.