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Welcome back to week two of the Maven’s fantasy minute.
Few housekeeping items before we begin. As a reminder, Saturday is a slow day on BMF. This column simply serves as a placeholder for the fantasy crowd until my Dad’s Sunday story goes live in the afternoon. Also, a number of you have asked me to post a piece on Tuesday that focuses on waiver claims. You ask and you shall receive. I will start doing that next Tuesday.
Week one is officially in the books and what a week it was. Just as all the fantasy experts predicted, Le’Veon Bell, Julio Jones, Rob Gronkow … err Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Jacksonville’s defense and the Rams’ defense are leading the way.
Nothing beats week one of the NFL fantasy season. It’s no different than being a Buffalo Bills fan. Optimism is flowing through the air, “this is my year” slogans run rampant in group chats and yet after four quarters of football the panic sets in. Everything you did leading up to this year’s season is all for naught. Belief is gone. You loved your team? Not anymore. Here’s a piece of free advice. Take a deep breath, close your ESPN fantasy app, take a walk and cancel that panic trade that you were about to send out. As my good friend Aaron Rodgers once said, R-E-L-A-X. The Maven is here and we will get this train back on the tracks.
Week one for the most part is a complete cluster you know what. That being said, you do learn a lot about the mid-low tier players and what you might be able to expect moving forward. Let’s dive into it.
Quarterbacks
Phillip “who really knows” Rivers
If you read my analysis last week you would know that I have a rivalry with Phillip dating back to 2012. One might assume because of that rivalry I’m unable to give an unbiased and fair opinion. On the contrary folks. What separates me from the rest? Being able to set aside my personal differences and provide you with the facts. Phillip is at home taking on a Miami defense that was abysmal against the pass last year. His favorite weapon in Keenan Allen is healthy. Melvin Gordon gives him some support with the run and if you’re ever going to take a chance with him it has to be at home. He’s also a sneaky DFS tournament start.
Carson Palmer
I’m a little hesitant to put him here but I have to. If you haven’t learned this yet, the NFL is a league of 180s. What do I mean? Just when you’re ready to write a player off he comes back and puts up top 10 fantasy numbers. It’s the same thing in picking against the spread. Team A loses by 28 the week before and wins as a 7-point underdog the following. Even with David Johnson out for the foreseeable future, Carson still has a plethora of weapons on the outside. It’s a favorable matchup at Indianapolis, in a dome and sort of a “statement” game for the Cardinals. I’m expecting 250-300 yards and 2-3 TDs.
Jameis Winston
Season opener, at home and taking on the Chicago Bears. Check, check, check. You have to pick your spots with Jameis, as I don’t believe he is a guy you can rely on week in and week out. The Bears allowed the 9th most fantasy QB points to Matt Ryan last week and that was playing in front of their home crowd. I would expect things to be even worse on the road playing an emotional Tampa Bay team.
QBs to avoid: Bortles, Goff, Wentz, Mariota, Prescott, Bradford, Taylor
Running Backs
The running back situation is currently a debacle. There’s only a handful of true RB1s and the drop from there is a drastic one. There’s really no middle ground. It’s either RB1 or fringe RB2/Flex. Unfortunately, you have to start someone so let’s take a look at our options. Remember, we are talking value guys so most of these options would fall outside the top 20 on a weekly rankings list.
Kerwynn Williams
Nobody knows for sure what the Arizona RB situation is going to look like this week in Indianapolis. All we can do is go off of what Bruce Arians is telling us and hope for the best. That being said, out of the three (Williams, Ellington and Johnson) I’m taking a chance on Williams. He’s the starter, he’s the youngest, and he should get the goal line touches. Ellington is going to be the 3rd down guy but that is not enough to warrant a start … for now. Keep an eye on this situation. If Chris Johnson ends up stealing carries he might be the guy to own moving forward, but for right now, I’m rolling with Kerwynn.
Tarik Cohen *PPR
Relative to other mid-low tier RBs, I’m buying the hype. To better understand why I like him this week you have to know who I’m comparing him with. Ingram, Peterson, Abdullah, Kelley, Perkins, Coleman, Gillislee, Powell, Gore and Riddick. Out of all of these guys, Cohen has the highest upside even if Jordan Howard is active (currently dealing with a shoulder injury.) I don’t think he will get 10 targets a game but for a player this explosive even if it’s 5-7 targets and 5-10 carries he is worth the risk.
Jacquizz Rodgers
Doug Martin is suspended for three games which opens the door for Jacquizz to be a three-week starter. When he had an opportunity to be the feature-back in 2016, Tampa Bay handed him the ball 30, 26, 19, 15 and 17 times. It’s all about usage and that is exactly what Jacquizz will give you with Doug out. If you have Jacquizz ride him for three weeks without hesitation.
RBs to avoid: Ingram, Peterson, Crowell, Blount, Riddick, Abdullah, Hyde,
Wide Receivers
Unlike RBs, there’s a plethora of mid-low tier WRs out there that you can start. Targets, targets, targets. That is the number one thing you should be looking at for these first few weeks.
Adam Thielen
I loved what I saw out of Thielen, Monday night. I started him in a FanDuel H2H contest so I was watching him very closely. He hauled in 9-157 on 10 targets. Don’t get crazy, I don’t think he’s going to replicate those numbers every week, but fantasy owners should be VERY excited about the 10 targets and 9 receptions. That tells me he is Minnesota’s version of Julian Edelman. A reliable slot receiver that is going to be looked at very frequently by Sam Bradford. You can’t put a price on trust that a QB has with a WR and I believe he’s a strong WR3/Flex play this week at Pittsburgh.
J.J. Nelson
If you haven’t heard yet, the Cardinals have ruled out John Brown for this week’s game against the Colts. Even with Brown active last week Nelson still had 6 targets and brought in 5-43 and 1TD. He’s an EXTREMELY explosive player and now the lone deep threat for Carson and Co. Look for the Cards to rebound this week in the passing game and with the absence of Brown, I expect Nelson to have a sneaky solid game. I would start him in the flex over a number of RB2/3s.
Randall Cobb
With all the talk surrounding Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams, Cobb became the odd man out. What did he do in week one? Comes out and puts up a 9/85-yard performance with 13 targets. Looking like the Cobb of old, he is now worthy of a WR2/Flex look. Last year’s NFC Championship was a track meet and I expect much of the same this weekend. Vegas has the total set at 54.5 which is the second highest of the weekend only behind New England vs New Orleans. Expect Cobb to get another 7-10 targets and a TD.
WRs to avoid: M. Bryant, Coleman, Jeffery, Marshall, Crowder, Ginn Jr.,
Tight Ends
Charles Clay
Only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues. If you are in need of a TE or have someone on your bench that has little to no upside go grab Clay. He led all TE’s in week one with 9 targets and caught 4 for 53 yards and a TD. Yet nobody is adding him. Quite honestly, it makes no sense at all. I give it two weeks before he is owned in over 50% of ESPN leagues and it should be higher than that. If you do not have Gronk, Kelce, Olsen, Reed, Rudolph, or Fleener, I would strongly consider taking a look at Clay.
Evan Engram
Engram is a stash play. If you haven’t heard of him, it’s time to familiarize yourself. He’s an explosive TE out of Ole Miss and was drafted by the Giants with the 23rd pick in the 2017 draft. In his debut he had 4 catches for 44 yards on 5 targets. Similar to Clay, if you have a player on your bench you don’t really care about it’s worth grabbing Engram. He could be trade bait in a few weeks and has the potential to be a TE2/Flex play by week 8.
Daily Fantasy – FanDuel
Multiplier Sunday Only
QB Phillip Rivers $7k
RB Jacquizz Rodgers $5.6k
RB Le’Veon Bell $9k
WR Keenan Allen $7.1k
WR Davante Adams $6.7k
WR Julio Jones $8.8k
TE Charles Clay $5.2k
K Blair Walsh $4.6k
DEF Baltimore Ravens $4.7k
The post Fantasy Football: The Maven says play Phillip Rivers, Randall Cobb appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.
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Few housekeeping items before we begin. As a reminder, Saturday is a slow day on BMF. This column simply serves as a placeholder for the fantasy crowd until my Dad’s Sunday story goes live in the afternoon. Also, a number of you have asked me to post a piece on Tuesday that focuses on waiver claims. You ask and you shall receive. I will start doing that next Tuesday.
Week one is officially in the books and what a week it was. Just as all the fantasy experts predicted, Le’Veon Bell, Julio Jones, Rob Gronkow … err Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Jacksonville’s defense and the Rams’ defense are leading the way.
Nothing beats week one of the NFL fantasy season. It’s no different than being a Buffalo Bills fan. Optimism is flowing through the air, “this is my year” slogans run rampant in group chats and yet after four quarters of football the panic sets in. Everything you did leading up to this year’s season is all for naught. Belief is gone. You loved your team? Not anymore. Here’s a piece of free advice. Take a deep breath, close your ESPN fantasy app, take a walk and cancel that panic trade that you were about to send out. As my good friend Aaron Rodgers once said, R-E-L-A-X. The Maven is here and we will get this train back on the tracks.
Week one for the most part is a complete cluster you know what. That being said, you do learn a lot about the mid-low tier players and what you might be able to expect moving forward. Let’s dive into it.
Quarterbacks
Phillip “who really knows” Rivers
If you read my analysis last week you would know that I have a rivalry with Phillip dating back to 2012. One might assume because of that rivalry I’m unable to give an unbiased and fair opinion. On the contrary folks. What separates me from the rest? Being able to set aside my personal differences and provide you with the facts. Phillip is at home taking on a Miami defense that was abysmal against the pass last year. His favorite weapon in Keenan Allen is healthy. Melvin Gordon gives him some support with the run and if you’re ever going to take a chance with him it has to be at home. He’s also a sneaky DFS tournament start.
Carson Palmer
I’m a little hesitant to put him here but I have to. If you haven’t learned this yet, the NFL is a league of 180s. What do I mean? Just when you’re ready to write a player off he comes back and puts up top 10 fantasy numbers. It’s the same thing in picking against the spread. Team A loses by 28 the week before and wins as a 7-point underdog the following. Even with David Johnson out for the foreseeable future, Carson still has a plethora of weapons on the outside. It’s a favorable matchup at Indianapolis, in a dome and sort of a “statement” game for the Cardinals. I’m expecting 250-300 yards and 2-3 TDs.
Jameis Winston
Season opener, at home and taking on the Chicago Bears. Check, check, check. You have to pick your spots with Jameis, as I don’t believe he is a guy you can rely on week in and week out. The Bears allowed the 9th most fantasy QB points to Matt Ryan last week and that was playing in front of their home crowd. I would expect things to be even worse on the road playing an emotional Tampa Bay team.
QBs to avoid: Bortles, Goff, Wentz, Mariota, Prescott, Bradford, Taylor
Running Backs
The running back situation is currently a debacle. There’s only a handful of true RB1s and the drop from there is a drastic one. There’s really no middle ground. It’s either RB1 or fringe RB2/Flex. Unfortunately, you have to start someone so let’s take a look at our options. Remember, we are talking value guys so most of these options would fall outside the top 20 on a weekly rankings list.
Kerwynn Williams
Nobody knows for sure what the Arizona RB situation is going to look like this week in Indianapolis. All we can do is go off of what Bruce Arians is telling us and hope for the best. That being said, out of the three (Williams, Ellington and Johnson) I’m taking a chance on Williams. He’s the starter, he’s the youngest, and he should get the goal line touches. Ellington is going to be the 3rd down guy but that is not enough to warrant a start … for now. Keep an eye on this situation. If Chris Johnson ends up stealing carries he might be the guy to own moving forward, but for right now, I’m rolling with Kerwynn.
Tarik Cohen *PPR
Relative to other mid-low tier RBs, I’m buying the hype. To better understand why I like him this week you have to know who I’m comparing him with. Ingram, Peterson, Abdullah, Kelley, Perkins, Coleman, Gillislee, Powell, Gore and Riddick. Out of all of these guys, Cohen has the highest upside even if Jordan Howard is active (currently dealing with a shoulder injury.) I don’t think he will get 10 targets a game but for a player this explosive even if it’s 5-7 targets and 5-10 carries he is worth the risk.
Jacquizz Rodgers
Doug Martin is suspended for three games which opens the door for Jacquizz to be a three-week starter. When he had an opportunity to be the feature-back in 2016, Tampa Bay handed him the ball 30, 26, 19, 15 and 17 times. It’s all about usage and that is exactly what Jacquizz will give you with Doug out. If you have Jacquizz ride him for three weeks without hesitation.
RBs to avoid: Ingram, Peterson, Crowell, Blount, Riddick, Abdullah, Hyde,
Wide Receivers
Unlike RBs, there’s a plethora of mid-low tier WRs out there that you can start. Targets, targets, targets. That is the number one thing you should be looking at for these first few weeks.
Adam Thielen
I loved what I saw out of Thielen, Monday night. I started him in a FanDuel H2H contest so I was watching him very closely. He hauled in 9-157 on 10 targets. Don’t get crazy, I don’t think he’s going to replicate those numbers every week, but fantasy owners should be VERY excited about the 10 targets and 9 receptions. That tells me he is Minnesota’s version of Julian Edelman. A reliable slot receiver that is going to be looked at very frequently by Sam Bradford. You can’t put a price on trust that a QB has with a WR and I believe he’s a strong WR3/Flex play this week at Pittsburgh.
J.J. Nelson
If you haven’t heard yet, the Cardinals have ruled out John Brown for this week’s game against the Colts. Even with Brown active last week Nelson still had 6 targets and brought in 5-43 and 1TD. He’s an EXTREMELY explosive player and now the lone deep threat for Carson and Co. Look for the Cards to rebound this week in the passing game and with the absence of Brown, I expect Nelson to have a sneaky solid game. I would start him in the flex over a number of RB2/3s.
Randall Cobb
With all the talk surrounding Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams, Cobb became the odd man out. What did he do in week one? Comes out and puts up a 9/85-yard performance with 13 targets. Looking like the Cobb of old, he is now worthy of a WR2/Flex look. Last year’s NFC Championship was a track meet and I expect much of the same this weekend. Vegas has the total set at 54.5 which is the second highest of the weekend only behind New England vs New Orleans. Expect Cobb to get another 7-10 targets and a TD.
WRs to avoid: M. Bryant, Coleman, Jeffery, Marshall, Crowder, Ginn Jr.,
Tight Ends
Charles Clay
Only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues. If you are in need of a TE or have someone on your bench that has little to no upside go grab Clay. He led all TE’s in week one with 9 targets and caught 4 for 53 yards and a TD. Yet nobody is adding him. Quite honestly, it makes no sense at all. I give it two weeks before he is owned in over 50% of ESPN leagues and it should be higher than that. If you do not have Gronk, Kelce, Olsen, Reed, Rudolph, or Fleener, I would strongly consider taking a look at Clay.
Evan Engram
Engram is a stash play. If you haven’t heard of him, it’s time to familiarize yourself. He’s an explosive TE out of Ole Miss and was drafted by the Giants with the 23rd pick in the 2017 draft. In his debut he had 4 catches for 44 yards on 5 targets. Similar to Clay, if you have a player on your bench you don’t really care about it’s worth grabbing Engram. He could be trade bait in a few weeks and has the potential to be a TE2/Flex play by week 8.
Daily Fantasy – FanDuel
Multiplier Sunday Only
QB Phillip Rivers $7k
RB Jacquizz Rodgers $5.6k
RB Le’Veon Bell $9k
WR Keenan Allen $7.1k
WR Davante Adams $6.7k
WR Julio Jones $8.8k
TE Charles Clay $5.2k
K Blair Walsh $4.6k
DEF Baltimore Ravens $4.7k
The post Fantasy Football: The Maven says play Phillip Rivers, Randall Cobb appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.
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