Success, or failure, of Packers rests with Mike McCarthy

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Bob McGinn

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By BOB McGINN

Whatever it is that the Green Bay Packers are promising this season, it just doesn’t add up.

Season after season since their victory in the 45th Super Bowl the Packers always had enough going for them that I was persuaded to forecast them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender if not winner.

Almost every year since 2010, my guess for their final record was more optimistic than it turned out to be.

Some thought I had gone off the deep end 12 months ago on this very day when I didn’t forecast a berth in the playoffs. Even had Aaron Rodgers been available for 16 games,
I still don’t think they would have qualified.
A year later, many names and faces have changed in the front office, the ranks of the assistant coaches and the roster of players but the outlook hasn’t. It looks like another quiet January in Wisconsin.
The presence of Rodgers alone makes Green Bay a threat to reach the postseason. He’s 34 but has shown no signs of slippage. He can still perform remarkable feats on a football field.

At the Super Bowl in Minneapolis, Rodgers alluded to the team’s many changes and told USA Today, “We’re going to keep on doing what we’re doing in Green Bay and try to find a way to get back to playing this week.”
The one constant is Mike McCarthy. Now probably more than ever before, in the wake of Ted Thompson’s ouster and the subsequent increase in his own power, it’s McCarthy who sets the agenda and is most responsible for the results in Green Bay.

By now, we know how McCarthy has won 62.6% of his games, made the playoffs nine times in 12 years and played in one Super Bowl.
It’s not his quarterback school or offensive scheme or play-calling or situational football or motivational speaking or the ability to relate to today’s player.
It’s because his teams have dominated the division, and because his teams have dominated turnover differential.
Until last season, McCarthy had never lost more games than he had won against NFC North opponents. In 2017, the Packers finished 2-4, leaving him with an enviable division record of 51-21-1.

McCarthy’s teams also have a plus-97 turnover differential in the regular season, second in that 12-year period to, of course, New England, which is plus-147 since 2006 under Bill Belichick.
In 2017, the Packers finished minus-3 to tie for 20th place, their lowest finish under McCarthy.
McCarthy is deserving of the highest praise for emphasizing divisional games and the giveaway-takeaway ratio.
He gets the Bears-Packers rivalry, understands how much the Green Bay game means to the Vikings and doesn’t seem ever to have underestimated the Lions.

By the same token, he wouldn’t conduct a practice without a ball-security period. Even in the exhibition season, when the starters don’t play much, it was noteworthy to see the Packers tied for ninth place at plus-1 just as the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles were dead last at minus-9.
Under McCarthy, no interception thrown, fumble lost, interception dropped or fumble recovery whiffed escapes his critical eye.
Yet, no matter how much he’s aware of becoming complacent, McCarthy cannot alter the way he carries himself, how he speaks and the basic message he brings to the locker room, the coaches wing, every department in the building and the fan base.

Perhaps inevitably, McCarthy seems to have grown a little stale. It takes a rare individual with immense people skills and intellect to keep ahead of the curve in any organization after a decade, especially one as public as professional football.
Once again, the stands at Nitschke Field were packed before the start of every practice this summer. Even though the Packers were coming off a 7-9 season, the adulation toward players remained unchanged.

Years ago, Ron Wolf wondered aloud if one reason the Bears of the 1980s and the Packers of the 1990s each won just one Super Bowl stemmed from possibly a Midwest tendency to lionize their heroes and minimize their flaws. Has it become too comfortable being a Packer?

Having watched close to 15 practices this spring and summer, I never saw any fisticuffs. In the middle of McCarthy’s tenure, guys like T.J. Lang, Johnny Jolly and Brady Poppinga were taking shots regularly. Short tempers can be a sign of competitive practices.

With what seemed like the majority of NFL teams pairing up for joint practices in pads during training camp, the Packers never do. If a coach wants the competitive, highest quality work in August, he schedules that.
In June, McCarthy allowed 16 players with six or more years experience to not practice for the three days of a full-squad minicamp. This was the third time he’s done it. It might be beneficial for the growth of young players but it does nothing for their interaction with the most experienced players, which is the key to developing a team.

Just because McCarthy did away with live tackling in August about a decade ago doesn’t mean the rest of the league does. Andy Reid always incorporates periods of live tackling in Kansas City. Doug Marrone did the same thing before his first full season in Jacksonville a year ago and his players, at first resistant, later became believers.
Injuries are anathema to all teams. Still, you have to play the game.

The Packers have been hammered by injuries in the first month of many regular seasons. They insist their practices harden bodies sufficiently for tackle football. Others in the league disagree.
Other than the return of Rodgers, the major change is defensive coordinator where McCarthy fired Dom Capers and hired Mike Pettine. The defense is an amalgamation of ideas from Pettine, a pressure-oriented disciple of Rex Ryan; run game coordinator Patrick Graham, a multiple-front disciple of Belichick (seven years), and pass game coordinator Joe Whitt, who can bring the best of Green Bay’s old defenses under Bob Sanders (one year) and Capers (nine).
On the practice field, Pettine quietly supervised individual and walk-through periods while letting the vocal Graham direct the front-seven breakdowns and the studious Whitt handle the coverages.

Whatever the reason, the fact remains that Pettine didn’t coach the last two years after being ousted as head coach in Cleveland. If he were that special, wouldn’t at least one team have made him a lucrative offer to coordinate again?
Nevertheless, with Pettine making every call against McCarthy’s offense in 11-on-11 work, there were days when the starting defense overran or outfoxed the protections and stymied the starting offense.

“Mike definitely has an ability to call games, understand concepts from offensive coordinators and put us in the best position possible,” linebacker Clay Matthews said at mid-week. “As you’ve seen a number of times at practice when we’re going against Aaron … that’s got to say something.”
One of the best ways to judge an offseason/training camp is to count the numbers of players that clearly elevated their level of play. When that number has been high, the Packers usually have a big season. When that number has been low, they don’t.

This was doubly critical in 2018 because the Packers simply didn’t have enough good players in 2017. An indication of that was the fact 27 teams had at least one player voted to the Pro Bowl but the Packers were one of five that didn’t have any.
My vote for the most improved player in training camp was Kenny Clark. He probably was the best player on the defense, if not the entire team, in 2017. This summer, in practice and games, he was borderline unblockable.
Who else took a jump? Outside linebacker Reggie Gilbert. Backup tackle Jason Spriggs, at least in the last three weeks. Robert Tonyan, the No. 4 tight end.
Wide receiver Jake Kumerow might be at the head of the list but he’ll have to wait until at least mid-season because of a shoulder injury.

Brian Gutekunst, the new general manager, obviously needed a top draft because Thompson’s last three didn’t measure up. Of the eight players that made the team out of his 11 selections, cornerback Josh Jackson impressed every scout that saw his exhibition tape. Oren Burks became a starter when Jake Ryan blew out his knee. Jaire Alexander should make some impact, but the three wide receivers all need development.

Unless you foresee Gilbert beating the better tackles or Pettine manufacturing consistent pressure with his scheme, the best chance to bolster a mediocre pass rush would appear to be Muhammad Wilkerson.
Wilkerson missed minimal practice time and played 46 snaps in two games. He contributed next to nothing as a pass rusher and was average to above against the run.

Wilkerson usually was the last of the nine defensive linemen to line up for individual drills under the tutelage of position coaches Jerry Montgomery and Jay Hayes. Also, he usually was the last lineman to reach the coaches when the unit jogged to a new location on the field.
The best players in Green Bay almost always have been first in line. Donald Driver, later Jordy Nelson and Ahman Green come to mind.
For those players and others, being first was a chance to show pride as well as lead. In a somewhat similar manner to Martellus Bennett last summer, Wilkerson showed none of that. Maybe it was in keeping with the punctuality issues that led the Jets to cast him adrift March 5 as if he were finished.
Among others that showed little or no more in training camp than they did last season were safeties Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Josh Jones, wide receiver Randall Cobb and quarterback DeShone Kizer. Defensive tackle Montravius Adams, a third-round pick in 2017, just treaded water.

Linebacker Vince Biegel (fourth round, ’17), tackles Kyle Murphy (sixth round, ’16) and Cole Madison (fifth round, ’18), running back Devante Mays (seventh round, ’17) and defensive back Quinten Rollins (second round, ’15) won’t be contributing at all.
The brains and the glue of Capers’ defense was safety Morgan Burnett. Capers and his assistants thought the world of him. In terms of value to the defense, from both a mental and physical standpoint, he ranked much higher than you might think.

An unrestricted free agent in March, Burnett is starting now in Pittsburgh. Certainly Burnett has lost a step, but do the Packers have a safety that can come close to approximating what he could do making last-second checks traffic and lining up people?
No, they don’t, but just about every good defense has had a safety that could do that.
Where else can the Packers hang their hat other than their No. 1 quarterback, especially at a time when the league is brimming with exciting, talented quarterbacks?
David Bakhtiari is an outstanding left tackle. Davante Adams can beat anybody on almost any route. Jimmy Graham isn’t showing his age and has meshed beautifully with Rodgers.
Clark and presumably Mike Daniels, who’s 29 and sat out almost all camp, should be a dynamic pair inside. There might be distinct improvement at cornerback. Mason Crosby is money.

The NFC looks to be the better of the two conferences but that shouldn’t preclude Green Bay from finishing among the top six teams (37.5%) and reaching the playoffs. The schedule is manageable both at the start and at the end.
It didn’t end well for Tony Dungy in Tampa Bay, Andy Reid in Philadelphia, Pete Carroll with the Jets and Patriots and Bill Belichick in Cleveland. McCarthy’s grades the last three seasons were D-minus, B-minus and D, by far the worst stretch in his 12-year career.

He needs to have a far better season as game manager, offensive tactician, leader and, for the first time, co-equal with the GM when personnel moves need to be made during the season.
The coaching, the players and the formula just don’t portend an abundance of success this season.




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BobMcGinnFootball.com is an independent, member-based website dedicated to analysis, opinion and coverage of the Green Bay Packers and the National Football League draft. Our three writers have covered the NFL for more than 100 seasons combined.The post Success, or failure, of Packers rests with Mike McCarthy appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.​

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Bob wrote......
Whatever the reason, the fact remains that Pettine didn’t coach the last two years after being ousted as head coach in Cleveland. If he were that special, wouldn’t at least one team have made him a lucrative offer to coordinate again?

The simple answer to this question is that Pettine still had 2 years left on his Cleveland HC contract ($3.5M/year), and if he had taken another coaching job at any point during that 2 yr time he would have forfeited some/all of those remaining years.
Last year he was a consultant for SEA, but had no coaching responsibilities, therefore he was able to still get paid. Maybe there's more to it than just that...........sh))

I'm not sure what his GB contract is paying, but it would be hard for me to walk away from getting paid $7M to just sit at home for a couple years. whistling))
 
The simple answer to this question is that Pettine still had 2 years left on his Cleveland HC contract ($3.5M/year)

gee bob. how did you miss that? i think i would be happy to take a two-year vacation where i get paid $7 million.
 
Pot shot at Pettine aside, I believe Bob cuts to the heart of the matter here. MM's tenure in GB is just tired. Doesn't mean he's done as a coach but he does not look energetic or particularly enthusiastic about coaching this team. Gute looks excited and interested. Time to turn the page next year and get someone on the same wavelength with our young GM, for better or worse.
 
Pot shot at Pettine aside, I believe Bob cuts to the heart of the matter here. MM's tenure in GB is just tired. Doesn't mean he's done as a coach but he does not look energetic or particularly enthusiastic about coaching this team. Gute looks excited and interested. Time to turn the page next year and get someone on the same wavelength with our young GM, for better or worse.

I don't consider that a pot shot at Pettine at all, why didn't anyone else go after him ? Outside of GB there where no other reports of interest. He may end up being just what we need or he could be another in the line of MM meh coaches.
 
Years ago, Ron Wolf wondered aloud if one reason the Bears of the 1980s and the Packers of the 1990s each won just one Super Bowl stemmed from possibly a Midwest tendency to lionize their heroes and minimize their flaws. Has it become too comfortable being a Packer?

This is what many here have said for a long time.... and it's what pisses so many of you off but it's true thus you see this a lot. ggg(
 
I don't consider that a pot shot at Pettine at all, why didn't anyone else go after him ? Outside of GB there where no other reports of interest. He may end up being just what we need or he could be another in the line of MM meh coaches.

1.) We don't know who went after Pettine, why or why not. We don't know if he was burned out after two difficult years as HC in a disfunctional organization. The simple enough explanation, as stated by others, is that he was getting paid anyway, he could do what he wants. 2.) It's irrelevant. The article is about MM and in a larger sense, the Packers org and group think.
 
This is what many here have said for a long time.... and it's what pisses so many of you off but it's true thus you see this a lot. ggg(

Ron Wolf was from PA, but he cut his teeth working for a neurotic New Yorker in Al Davis, and it takes an outsider like that to maybe see and work against some of this big picture stuff. IMO it's gotta start at the top, and that means Murphy. I don't believe we see that change for a couple years, though, while Rodgers is still playing for this team. Which is a shame, because the guys on the field would benefit from a change at the top.
 
Bob wrote......


The simple answer to this question is that Pettine still had 2 years left on his Cleveland HC contract ($3.5M/year), and if he had taken another coaching job at any point during that 2 yr time he would have forfeited some/all of those remaining years.
Last year he was a consultant for SEA, but had no coaching responsibilities, therefore he was able to still get paid. Maybe there's more to it than just that...........sh))

I'm not sure what his GB contract is paying, but it would be hard for me to walk away from getting paid $7M to just sit at home for a couple years. whistling))
Actually HC money is guaranteed. It’s how offset money impacts future contracts
 
Actually HC money is guaranteed. It’s how offset money impacts future contracts

so would you rather get paid $7 million to spend time with your family and enjoy life or work 16-days with constant pressure from the media, the gm, and countless thousands of "fans"?
 
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