Silverstein: Aaron Rodgers' deal could take free-agency toll on Packers

[Da-news-now]

Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst must make the tough salary-cap decisions that will result from a contract extension for Aaron Rodgers.

Continue reading...

 

[rpiotr01]

IMO the Packers could stand to loosen up a little with the way they structure contracts. With the way NFL money is growing and the way the cap is growing, why NOT back-load AR's deal a bit and give yourself more flexibility now?

 

[dannobanano]

BG said in his interview at the Combine that it's all a giant puzzle that you have to fit together.

A LOT of what they could, or maybe can't, do will hinge on what they decide about doing with Nelson/Cobb/Matthews. If they keep all three of them this year, and at their current cap numbers it will likely force them to push guaranteed money for Rodgers into 2019 and beyond (I'm thinking large signing bonus that can be pro-rated over life of the contract plus guaranteed money that hits the cap in 2018 (lesser)-2019 (bigger)-2020 (real big).........maybe even in 2021. All depends on how much guaranteed money will be in the contract.
If they keep Nelson/Cobb/Matthews "as is", it will also handcuff them as to what they can do in free agency (2018). Which would mean that any meaningful forays into free agency wouldn't likely happen until 2019 and beyond. It would mean, for the most part, another year of maintaining D&D status quo.

2019 free agency, and beyond, looks to be less of a hindrance (at the moment) than does 2018.

Free Agents 2019:
UFA - Matthews, Cobb, Nelson, HHCD, Kendricks, Randall, Rollins, Monty, Ryan, Hundley, Ripkowski.
RFA - Hawkins, Brice, Evans.
ERFA - Day, Thomas, Pearson, Tonyan, Bouagnon, Kumerow, Amichia, Yancey, Triner, Gilbert, Byrd.

Free Agents 2020:
UFA - Rodgers, Daniels, Bulaga, Crosby, Clark, Spriggs, Fackrell, Lowry, Davis, Murphy, Martinez.
RFA - Pipkins, Vogel, Odom, Talley. (They can pick up Clark's 5th year option here and keep him from UFA. That would push him out to 2021 as a UFA)

As you can see, what they do/don't do with Nelson/Cobb/Matthews in 2018 will have an effect both this year and 2019. So the size/scope of Rodgers contract likely won't come into focus until after the wrangle the numbers for these three players and make their moves in free agency.

 

[TW]

I hate to say this, but it looks like we're going to need to do major rebuilding in 2020, because of contracts on key players, between then and now. The question is, do the Packers set themselves up short-term, for the next two years, and dump contracts and take the hit on dead cap after that, or find a way to stick duct tape over the holes, and try to stay on the right side of 8 wins?

It's going to be interesting how Gutekunst sees it, and Murphy accepts it. What McCarthy wants, and/or needs, may not be the issue considered as much as he seems to think it may be.

But, if it's win it all now and hit the road when the bottom falls out, we're going to see a lot of back loaded contracts, kind of like hitting the wall like the Redskins back some time ago.

 

[Dubz41]

Interesting puzzle Gute has on his hands. Instead of thinking of the total of Arod's contract I try to think of the percentage of the cap. I believe he was extended in 2011 when the cap was about 120M. At that time I think his percentage of the cap was 1/6th or about 17%. So 17% of 178M would be about $30.25M. So it should be up to Russ Ball to work that number into some kind of payment plan that will be conducive to flexibility in the FA market.

 

[TW]

Interesting puzzle Gute has on his hands. Instead of thinking of the total of Arod's contract I try to think of the percentage of the cap. I believe he was extended in 2011 when the cap was about 120M. At that time I think his percentage of the cap was 1/6th or about 17%. So 17% of 178M would be about $30.25M. So it should be up to Russ Ball to work that number into some kind of payment plan that will be conducive to flexibility in the FA market.

I'm anxious to see what Rodgers wants. I have a hunch he wants 5 years guaranteed, and no hooks for the team to dump him with a back loaded contract that's not guaranteed. I think he's going to put them in a position where his salary, towards the end of his contract, is much smaller, but the guarantees will huge. He might end up with something like a $42 million salary on the 5th year with $39 mill guaranteed, and only $3 mill as salary. He's going to make it his contract, and he could then manipulate his guarantees each year, to help the create cap, and gain more money for himself.

 

[57packer]

It certainly is a puzzle. Seems like the team will be about 20mil under the CAP, give or take a few million. I'll be interested to see how Gute plays it. He could go several ways.

First, it's quite possible to do an extension with AR that does not impact 2018 much. Knowing that, it's really the rest of the puzzle that needs to be dealt with. You don't need to make room for AR this year, but you do need to consider the impact going forward.

Gute doesn't have to cut anyone this year unless he doesn't have room for a couple of free agents he's looking at. I could see him standing pat on his guys while adding a couple of reasonably priced FAs and then really hitting it next year in terms of creating CAP room for AR and adding a couple of higher priced FAs.

The numbers are staggering. Those 2019 FAs probably come in at almost $60mil. Of that group I could see a deal for CM3 at a much lower number, and a nice deal for Randall if he maintains his play from the end of last season. Maybe HHCD gets a decent deal if he shows more under Pettine but they could well pass on him. Monty could come back on a modest deal. Kendricks, Rollins, Ryan, Hundley & Ripkowski are almost certainly all gone unless they think they'd like Ryan back as depth for a minimum deal. I could see $35-40mil in CAP savings with AR's deal starting to impact. Also plenty of room for a couple more FAs in 2019.

2020 is the really tough year when you look at it right now. Rodgers' deal will already be done. Daniels is a core piece and probably needs to be re-signed at solid money. Crosby is still solid and should be re-upped at similar numbers to his current deal. Clark will get some big money if his trajectory remains the same - so maybe it would be best to put him off for a year. Lowry will also need to get paid if he maintains his play. Martinez is another guy you might want to keep. Bulaga won't be back - too much injury history to spend any money on. Spriggs, Fackrell, Davis and Murphy could all be "passes" or minimum types. That 2020 free agent group is going to cost some money so Gute will need to plan accordingly for the next two off-seasons.