Scouting the opponent: Packers look to continue dominance against Bears

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Bob McGinn

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By BOB McGINN

This will be the 50th meeting between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears since the Bears had what everyone just assumed was an insurmountable lead in the series.

When the Packers took the field on Halloween Night in October 1994, they trailed in the series, 82-59-6.

Since then, Green Bay has been utterly dominant. The Packers’ 37-12 record in the last 24 years has put them ahead, 96-94-6, entering the team’s 197th meeting Sunday night at Lambeau Field to kick off what the NFL labels as its 99th season.

Coach Mike McCarthy improved to 18-7 against the Bears with a
with a sweep in 2017, winning 35-14 in Green Bay and 23-16 in Chicago.
“I don’t see 35-14,” an executive in personnel said Tuesday. “I think it will be a better game than that. I think this game will probably be a little bit closer. I’ll say Green Bay, 27-20.”
The Packers have won four in a row and eight of the last nine meetings. The Bears have won twice at Lambeau Field (2015, ’13) since their last triumph at Soldier Field (2010). McCarthy is 8-4 in opening games.
In some ways, the Packers might be catching the Bears at a good time. True, the Packers will be without suspended running back Aaron Jones for the first two games, but that’s probably trumped by how much the Bears realistically can get from potential star linebackers Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith.
Mack, the elite pass rusher from Oakland, was acquired by the Bears Saturday in exchange for two first-round draft choices. Smith, the eighth player chosen in the 2018 draft, reported 29 days late and shortly thereafter suffered a hamstring pull.
Both are expected to play, but how much and how well are the $64,000 questions.
“Roquan’s situation and Mack’s situation will be pretty similar,” one scout said. “It’s just a matter of how you bring them along. Mack could end up the same way, with lower-body issues, if they try to bring him along too fast.”
Armed with a six-year extension that averages $23.5 million and contains $90M in guarantees, Mack will be chasing Aaron Rodgers. Three days earlier, Rodgers signed a four-year extension averaging $33.5 million and containing $98.2M in guarantees.
“I can’t imagine Mack being ready to play a whole game,” said one scout. “Regardless of what he’s been doing, he’s not going to be in football shape. You’d hate to pay all that money to get a guy hurt.”
Leonard Floyd, a third linebacker selected in the first round, will play with a club on his right hand to protect a three-week old fracture.
“Chicago is going to be better down the road,” one personnel man said. “They don’t have all their pieces in place just yet. They’ll be a team that gets better as the year goes on.”
On Monday, Mack’s teammates told reporters just how pervasive his influence might be on the defense.
“He’s going to require a lot of attention,” said cornerback Prince Amukamara. “Probably a lot of double teams. Akiem (Hicks) was getting the double teams. Now I’m sure it’s going to open Akiem up. It’s going to open Floyd up. It’s going to make our jobs on the back end a lot easier.
“His presence brings a whole new dynamic to our team. It’s going to help us a lot.”
The Packers are a 7 ½-point favorite.

OFFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Mark Helfrich (first year).
Key assistant coaches – Harry Hiestand (offensive line); Mike Furrey (wide receivers).
Notes: Helfrich, the head coach at Oregon from 2013-’16 (37-16) and a first-year NFL assistant, serves as coordinator but coach Mike Nagy designs the offense and calls the plays. Nagy was an assistant for the Eagles from 2010-’12 and for the Chiefs from 2013-’17. Nagy has been vanilla in five exhibition games, and as a first-time head coach the Packers really can’t be sure what he might do. Certainly the Bears have looked better organized than they did the last two seasons under coordinator Dowell Loggains.
What scouts said: “If you throw some Kansas City Chief film on you’ll see exactly what he (Nagy) is going to do. Obviously, he’s been with Andy (Reid) for a long time. A lot of what Andy did last year in Kansas City, a lot of those ideas were Nagy’s. Or even the years before that when Doug Pederson was there. He helped evolve that system. It used to be West Coast. That was the staple. But as time progressed they got more into some of the read stuff and RPO’s that everybody talks about. He’ll bring the slot in motion on the fly sweep. The passing game is still fundamentally West Coast. He’ll still have reads. It’ll take (Mitchell) Trubisky a little bit of time to learn it but he’s a sharp dude. I imagine he’ll pick it up quicker than (Patrick) Mahomes will pick it up. Mahomes just has a bigger arm. So Philly, Kansas City, Chicago and even Buffalo with (quarterbacks coach) David Culley up there will all be running pretty similar stuff.”

WIDE RECEIVERS
Starters – Allen Robinson (6-2 ½, 211, 4.52 before the 2014 draft); Taylor Gabriel (5-7 ½, 165, 4.41).
Key backups – Anthony Miller (5-11, 190, 4.54); Kevin White (6-2 ½, 216, 4.30); Javon Wims (6-3, 215, 4.58).
Notes: Kendall Wright, the leader in receptions with 59 in 2017, and Cam Meredith, the leader with 66 in ’16, departed in free agency. On March 14, the first day of unrestricted free agency, the Bears signed Robinson from Jacksonville (three years, $42 million, $25.2M guaranteed) and Gabriel from Atlanta (four years, $26 million, $14M guaranteed). Robinson blew out his knee on the third snap last season and had very little exposure in August. Gabriel caught a 47-yard TD pass against Green Bay in October 2016. The Bears traded up to draft Miller in the second round with the 51st pick. White, the seventh pick in 2015, finally looks healthy after playing five games in three seasons. The best WR in training camp was Wims, a rookie free agent from Georgia who had 15 catches for 227 yards (15.1) and one TD.
What scouts said: “I’d say they’re much improved over last year. I like Robinson. He had the injury down in Jacksonville. He’s got good enough size and catches the ball well and plays hard. You’ll get an effort player.” … “Gabriel will do the jet sweep stuff or quick screens from the slot. He’s most dangerous when he catches the ball and it becomes a punt return for him. He can just catch it and scoot.” … “At Memphis, Anthony Miller made Riley (Ferguson) as productive as he was. He is a competitive son of a gun. Once he can play fast and isn’t thinking about stuff he can be explosive. Good hands, average route runner.” … “Kevin White has a lot to overcome. I don’t think he’ll be the player you saw coming out of West Virginia but I think he’ll be a size receiver. Nagy likes that kind of guy on the outside to run slants.”

TIGHT ENDS
Starter – Trey Burton (6-2, 235, 4.60).
Key backups – Dion Sims (6-5, 268, 4.74); Daniel Brown (6-4 ½, 247, 4.57).
Notes: Also on March 14, the Bears signed Burton away from the Eagles for $32 million over four years ($22M guaranteed). He started merely five games in four seasons behind Zach Ertz and Brent Celek but looks poised for a break-out season. Sims is a solid No. 2 but No. 3 Adam Shaheen, a second-round pick in 2017, is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
What scouts said: “Shaheen’s injury might have been the best thing (for the Bears). I was never crazy about him.” … “Burton is pretty athletic. He’ll know the offense because Philly’s offense is Kansas City’s offense which is now Chicago’s offense. He can run all the routes, plus he’s athletic.” … “Sims is a big-bodied blocker. They’ll do the dink-and-dunk stuff with him.” … “I don’t know if Nagy will get into the three tight-end offense. Andy did. It’s a nice package that they normally have. We’ll see.”

OFFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LT Charles Leno (6-4, 306, 5.24); LG Eric Kush (6-4, 317, 5.01); C Cody Whitehair (6-4, 310, 5.07); RG Kyle Long (6-6, 316, 4.96); RT Bobby Massie (6-6, 317, 5.19).
Key backups – C-G James Daniels (6-3 ½, 308, no 40); T Bradley Sowell (6-7, 312, 5.24).
Notes: Whitehair was plagued by wild shotgun snaps last summer and this summer. Why the Bears didn’t just put him at left guard as the replacement for the departed Josh Sitton and install Daniels, a second-round pick, as the starting center is anyone’s guess. Daniels lacks size for guard, where he has yet to unseat the journeyman Kush. Long had three different operations in the off-season but didn’t miss any time in camp.
What scouts said: “Leno is a pretty solid guy. He doesn’t have great ability to blow you up but he works hard. He’s solid in pass protection but not special. His arm length (34 3/8 inches) probably is the difference-maker when you’re barely 6-4.” … “Kush is more of a center than a guard. He’s playing there more as a stopgap. His deal is, he’s intense. You might remember him from ‘Hard Knocks’ with the Rams. He was the one who drove the crazy jeep and wore the wild, cut-off tank tops all the time. He was a real character, a loveable character. He is tough and competitive. Not overly talented.” … “They must not feel like Daniels is ready to go yet. Daniels will be a better player than Kush in the long run.” … “Whitehair is a solid anchor as a center. Just a good ol’ farm boy who plays hard. Not as athletic as you would like and he’s not tough like Olin Kreutz used to be there. Just a good, serviceable, smart center.” … “Long can be a dominant inside blocker. He’s nasty and mean. It’s will he stay healthy and play. Shoot, he’s a pretty good anchor in there.” … “Massie is a decent athlete. He’s more of a finesse guy. You wouldn’t normally see him as a right tackle because he’s not an ass kicker. He’s more of an athlete. Better pass protector than run blocker.”

QUARTERBACKS
Starter – Mitchell Trubisky (6-2, 222, 4.66).
Backup – Chase Daniel (6-0, 225, 4.79).
Notes: Trubisky, the second player selected in the 2017 draft, played sparingly in exhibition games. He threw just 18 of the team’s 189 passes. He should benefit from an improved supporting cast and better coaching. Daniel arrived on March 14 as a free agent from New Orleans (two years, $10 million, $7M guaranteed). In eight seasons he has started two games (1-1), thrown 78 passes and posted a passer rating of 81.1.
What scouts said: “I like that Trubisky has the quarterback’s athletic arrogance. For a young guy he’s got confidence and thinks he can make plays. He’s athletic enough to extend plays. He believes he can make all the throws. In the long run, I think he can be really good as a system quarterback. I don’t think he’s ever going to be an elite quarterback.” … “Chase obviously is a little undersized but he’ll be the smartest guy in the room. He’ll be outstanding for Trubisky. Any time Trubisky comes over it’ll be like having another coach on the sidelines. That’s the benefit of having him.”

RUNNING BACKS
Starters – RB Jordan Howard (6-0, 224, 4.59); FB Michael Burton (5-11, 240, 4.70).
Key backups – RB Tarik Cohen (5-6 ½, 181, 4.41); RB Benny Cunningham (5-9 ½, 218, no 40).
Notes: Howard looked trimmer and faster this summer. Only two backs, Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell, gained more yards rushing than Howard (2,435) in the past two seasons. In four games against the Packers Howard has had to settle for 219 yards in 57 carries (3.8) and two TDs. Nagy has kept Cohen almost completely under wraps (one reception, no carries). Despite his size, he has been effective flanking wide and running wide-receiver type routes.
What scouts said: “Little thunder and lightning, I guess. Howard is a thick, tough pounder. A nice four-minute type back. He can possess it and get you a first down or run out the clock.” … “Tarik is the explosive guy who can score from anywhere. You want to get the ball in his hands so it’s just like a punt return.”

DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Vic Fangio (fourth year).
Key assistants – Ed Donatell (defensive backs); Jay Rodgers (defensive line).
Notes: Fangio, 60, interviewed to be John Fox’s successor but lost out to Nagy. An NFL source said the Packers were keenly interested in hiring Fangio to replace Dom Capers but, in the end, he returned to Chicago. Like most coordinators, Fangio showed next to nothing during August. A close friend and disciple of Capers, he employs the 3-4 fire-zone scheme but doesn’t pressure as much.
What scouts said: “I think Fangio is probably one of the smarter defensive coordinators in the league just in terms of breaking down offenses. He always seems to have a good plan that can give an offense trouble. He doesn’t just run a basic defense. He always has something special for offenses. He’s got a nice base package but also a nice exotic package as well.”

DEFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LE Akiem Hicks (6-4 ½, 332, 5.22); NT Eddie Goldman (6-4, 320, 5.28); RE Jonathan Bullard (6-3, 296, 4.92).
Key backups – DE Roy Robertson-Harris (6-5 ½, 294, 4.84); DT Nick Williams (6-4 ½, 310, 4.89).
Notes: Hicks has been the team’s most valuable player on defense the past two years. He was slowed by a knee injury the past few weeks but has been practicing. When Mitch Unrein departed for Tampa Bay on March 14, the Bears plugged in Bullard, a third-round pick in 2016. When Robertson-Harris worked out for teams in March 2016 he weighed 256. The Bears now list the former outside linebacker at 294, and at times he has shown pass-rush ability.
What scouts said: “They’re all interior run defenders who can give you a little bit of push as pass rushers. None of them were really meant to be pass-rush guys.” … “Man, you talk about a guy who has developed every year. Hicks always had size and played with good effort. That’s probably why he got better all the time. His biggest attribute is how hard he plays. When he first got in the league (2012) he was just big and held the point. Each year he’s gotten better at the little things. Finally, he’s a well-rounded defensive lineman.”

LINEBACKERS
Starters – LOLB Khalil Mack (6-2 ½, 252, 4.57); LILB Nick Kwiatkoski (6-2, 242, 4.68); RILB Danny Trevathan (6-0, 239, no 40); ROLB Leonard Floyd (6-5 ½, 251, 4.60).
Key backups – ILB Roquan Smith (6-1, 236, 4.53); OLB Sam Acho (6-1 ½, 259, 4.66).
Notes: Mack is practicing after being acquired Saturday from Oakland but Sunday night will be his first game since Dec. 31. Floyd suffered a broken right hand Aug. 18 but returned to practice Monday and will play with a cast. Kwiatkoski, a 13-game starter the past two seasons, might start until Smith is ready. The eighth pick in the 2018 draft, Smith didn’t sign until Aug. 14 and then felt tightness in a hamstring about two weeks ago. He has been back practicing but his playing time is uncertain.
What scouts said: “I imagine Acho will take a good amount of reps this week. Acho is at his best as a rotation guy. He’s not even a speed rusher. More of a power rusher and a technician.” … “I don’t think Mack will be as explosive as you’d like right now. He’s got good strength to rush you with a power to speed move. He can do the same thing with get-off and speed and then power you. He’s well-rounded if he’s ready to play. He’s got good body control where he can give you a move and counter you back inside as well. He’s a Pro Bowler. I just don’t think he’s ready to play right now.” … “I think he’ll play about half the snaps. Maybe 30. They’ll try to play him here and there. A couple series every quarter.” … “Floyd is athletic and has the speed to rush you. Tall and linear. He can drop or rush you. He has filled out. Coming out of Georgia you said, ‘Man, this dude is way too thin.’ I think they saw him as a little bit of a project even though he was a (first-) round draft pick.” … “Roquan is obviously very athletic and can make plays. Little bit of a run-and-hit guy but has good instincts and can find the ball pretty quickly.” … “Kwiatkoski is a sharp guy. He plays hard. Not nearly as athletic as Roquan. He played some last year when they had all the injuries, and he stepped in and made some plays.” … “Trevathan is undersized but he’s strong and very physical. He can blitz you. He’ll take shots on you, too. He’ll be borderline getting flags thrown on him for leading with his helmet and all that crap.”

SECONDARY
Starters – LC Prince Amukamara (6-0, 204, 4.43); RC Kyle Fuller (5-11 ½, 190, 4.43); SS Adrian Amos (6-0 ½, 214, 4.47); FS Eddie Jackson (6-0 ½, 202, 4.55).
Key backups – CB Bryce Callahan (5-9, 188, 4.47); S Deon Bush (6-0 ½, 205, 4.56); CB Kevin Toliver (6-2, 192, no 40).
Notes: The four starters and Callahan, the nickel back, are in place from last year. On March 16, the Packers offered Fuller a four-year, $56 million contract ($18M guaranteed). Having tagged Fuller as a transition free agent, the Bears had a week to match the offer and retain him. They matched it in just a few hours.
What scouts said: “Callahan must be a smart dude, man, because that seems to be his role. You can always put him in nickel and he can adjust to everybody’s offensive formation. Solid instincts. They don’t trust him on the outside as much.” … “Fuller isn’t the biggest guy but he has nice coverage ability. I kind of like him out there. He’s aggressive in coverage. I wouldn’t say he’s a blazer but I think he’s got good game speed and reads routes pretty well. He’s got a knack for making a play on the ball.” … “Prince Amukamara is better off being a Cover 2 type corner. He’s thick and got good strength. Not a blazer down the field. He will sit on routes and guess on routes.” … “I kind of underestimated Eddie Jackson a year ago when he came out. He’s a better ballhawk than I gave him credit for. He’s actually a better player than I thought.” … “Amos is very instinctive. A typical, smart Penn State defensive back. He’s the smart guy and Eddie is the playmaker.”

SPECIAL TEAMS
Coordinator – Chris Tabor (first year).
Personnel – K Cody Parkey (6-0, 190); P Pat O’Donnell (6-4, 217); LS Patrick Scales (6-4, 239); KR Benny Cunningham; PR Tarik Cohen.
Notes: Unhappy with the ineffective kicking of three players in 2017, the Bears signed Parkey on March 14 for $15 million over four years ($9M guaranteed). Parkey made eight of 11 field-goal attempts in August, missing his final attempt (39) and twice from 52. After trying unsuccessfully to sign Bengals P Kevin Huber, the Bears reluctantly re-signed O’Donnell (one year, $1.5 million, $500,000 guaranteed). Neither Cunningham nor Cohen returned kicks in August.
What scouts said: “Tabor was in Cleveland for a long time (2011-’17). Andy’s guy in Kansas City, Dave Toub, used to be in Chicago and this guy was Toub’s assistant there (2008-’10). He runs a lot of what Dave Toub liked to run. They try to be creative. They always make sure they have a good return guy.” … “Parkey can put the ball in the end zone on kickoffs. He’s solid.”




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interesting factoid gleaned from the first couple paragraphs. in the past 24 years, the packers have only lost 12 games to the bears. 7 of those losses came under mike mccarthy.
 
It is interesting; however, MM has been with the Packers half that time (12 1/2 years) and lost half the games plus one. Seems about right, actually.
 
Holmgren had 4 losses as Packers coach against CHI.

The interesting point for me was how the Packers fortunes against CHI turned around with the advent of Wolf/Holmgren and have continued until present.
 
I can't take too much away from the wins vs losses against the Bears, but I do know that no coach in GB would survive past a second year if they lost two games to each the Bears, Vikings, and Lions. Even if you ended up 10-6, those losses would be considered catastrophic.
 
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