Scouting the opponent: Lions can run, but they can’t hide (on defense)

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Bob McGinn

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By BOB McGINN

The Detroit Lions’ plan to become more physical this season has borne fruit on offense but not on defense.

On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers might find a Lions squad that finally has a legitimate ground game but also one that is the NFL’s worst at stopping the run.

The Packers (2-1-1) are a one-point favorite over the Lions (1-3) at Ford Field in the first NFC North Division game for coach Matt Patricia.

“This will be a huge game for us this week,” Patricia said Monday. “Obviously, a very difficult opponent to roll in here within the division … they do a great job up
they do a great job up there and I have utmost respect for Coach (Mike) McCarthy and that program and Aaron Rodgers.”
Without Rodgers for last year’s pair of meetings, the Lions enacted a sweep for the first time since 1991. McCarthy started out 9-0 against Detroit but has gone 9-6 since an overall mark of 18-6.
The Packers have lost three of their last five visits to Ford Field.
“Being in Detroit will make it a little bit closer,” an AFC executive in personnel said Tuesday. “I still don’t think the Lions are very good. I don’t think this is an elite Packers team that we’re used to but they’re still two touchdowns better than Detroit. At least.”
He called it for Green Bay, 30-14.
A personnel director for an NFC team also went with the Packers by the comfortable margin of 35-24.
“Detroit’s defense has issues against the run,” the scout said. “They’ll have to make a decision either to stop Rodgers and the passing game or (Aaron) Jones and the running game.
“I think the Packers can spread them out with formations and different personnel groupings to get whatever they want. Detroit’s pass rush is anemic without (Ziggy) Ansah. Jarrad Davis is a really good young player against the run but could have issues when the Packers make him cover.”
Since being blown out at home by the Jets, 48-17, the Lions lost at San Francisco with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, 30-27; stunned New England at Ford Field, 26-10, and lost on a last-second field goal, 26-24, at Dallas.
“I say Matt Patricia and that defense will outscheme them and get enough hits on Rodgers to keep him from having a huge impact,” a third personnel man said. “Detroit should have beat Dallas last week. It won’t be a high-scoring game. It’ll be 23-20, with Detroit winning.”
Counting playoffs, the Lions had gone 72 games without a 100-yard rusher before rookie Kerryon Johnson gained 101 against the Patriots. Detroit is 20th in rushing yards per game (98.0), eighth in yards per rush (4.6).
Against New England, the Lions rushed 33 times for 159 yards (4.8) in an atypical performance for Detroit teams since the era of Barry Sanders.
“We want a big, strong, tough, physical team in the trenches,” general manager Bob Quinn said upon completion of the draft in late April. “When you look back at our team last year, all those critical situations we couldn’t run the ball like half a yard, that bothered me.
“So I took it upon myself to implement some changes in what we want to do … what we want to look like as a team.”
Quinn, the fourth year GM, fired coach Jim Caldwell (36-30) in January and hired Patricia, the Patriots’ defensive coordinator, as his replacement.
“They’re going to work hard, I guarantee you that,” Bill Belichick said of his protégé in March. “Matt’s as hard a working guy as I’ve ever been around.”
As promising as the strides have been to become a more physical team on offense, the inability to stop the run might be equally disappointing.
“Our old defensive front was very much one-gap and very much get-up-the-field,” Quinn said. “I’d say very much less in terms of gap responsibility.
“We are much more, I’d say, conscious of technique, holding our gaps, playing sound fundamentals (as opposed) to just getting up the field. We’re not really a two-gap team right now. I’d say we’re a mix.”
Detroit’s chances for a balanced attack took a hit Sunday when right guard T.J. Lang left the Dallas game on his 10th play with a head injury. Lang is being evaluated for what might be another in a lengthy list of concussions, including several during his eight seasons in Green Bay.
Lang pulled to the left on a running play. As he blocked linebacker Jaylon Smith, Smith’s helmet struck the left side of Lang’s helmet. He staggered, took a knee and then dropped to all fours.
After two minutes, Lang struggled to his feet to begin a labored walk off the field with a trainer under each arm for support. He rubbed his face and blinked his eyes repeatedly.
“That’s not a good sign,” said one executive. “When he’s healthy, he’s a good player. He’s really one of their keys on that line.”
If Lang is out his replacement figures to be Kenny Wiggins, a former Charger who didn’t fare well in Dallas.
“In theory, you would think their line would be pretty good and they’d be able to run the ball,” one scout said. “Kerryon Johnson may be the answer. They really haven’t had a back. They’ve had a bunch of role players.
“Matthew Stafford is a really good quarterback that just has never been the beneficiary of enough help. If he’s in that pass-dependent mode he reverts to the guy that thinks he has to win the game on every play. It causes him to make too many mistakes. I see some pressing out of him this season.”
OFFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Jim Bob Cooter (fourth year).
Key assistant coaches – Jeff Davidson, offensive line; Robert Prince, wide receivers.
Notes: Cooter was promoted from quarterbacks coach to coordinator in mid-2015 after coach Jim Caldwell fired Joe Lombardi. His base formation includes three wide receivers, one tight end and one running back. In the run game, it’s a combination of zone, power and read option. Almost exclusively a shotgun team at times under Caldwell, the Lions ran four of their first 10 plays in Dallas from under center. They rank 11th in yards (390.5), tied for 17th in points (23.5) and tied for 22nd in giveaways (seven).
What scouts say: “They’ve tried to become a bit more balanced with the run game. But when they got to go back to their money stuff they still like to spread you out and let him (Matthew Stafford) try to pick you apart.”
WIDE RECEIVERS
Starters – Golden Tate (5-10 ½, 197, 4.48 before the draft in 2010); Marvin Jones (6-2, 198, 4.47); Kenny Golladay (6-4, 213, 4.52).
Key backups – T.J. Jones (5-11 ½, 190, 4.50).
Notes: The Lions’ offense was on the field for only 54 plays in Dallas. The snap counts were 53 for Golladay, 50 for Marvin Jones, 42 for Tate and 11 for T.J. Jones. Starting with the Lions’ 35-11 victory over the Packers Dec. 31 at Ford Field, the top three wide receivers each has surpassed 50 yards in the last five games. Golladay, a third-round pick from Northern Illinois in 2017, burned Green Bay for 80 yards in two receptions. On a 54-yard TD, Blake Martinez was out of position and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix missed the tackle. Marvin Jones has owned the Packers; in five games he has averaged 101.4 yards per game (20.3 per catch) and scored six touchdowns. Tate has 47 catches for 613 yards (13.0) and four TDs in nine games. In Dallas, Tate exploded for 132 yards and two TDs in eight receptions.
What scouts say: “Tate has never been a great route runner but he is a tough guy and he’s pretty good after the catch. Has good hands. He times up the 50-50 ball really well. I think that goes back to his days as a baseball player. Not great speed. Plays hard. Tough and physical for a little dude. He still kind of reminds me of Hines Ward.” … “Marvin was more of a speed guy at Cincinnati. Thinner frame. He has been a good complement to Tate because he’s more of a vertical threat.” … “Golladay is good in the mix because he’s a little bit different. He’s a 6-4, 220-pound guy. Doesn’t run great routes but is a pretty good red-zone target.”
TIGHT ENDS
Starter – Luke Willson (6-5 ½, 251, 4.51).
Key backups – Levine Toilolo (6-8, 268, 4.82); Michael Roberts (6-4 ½, 265, 4.83).
Notes: After deciding not to re-sign Eric Ebron, the Lions signed Willson from Seattle (one year, $2.5 million, $1.4M guaranteed) and Toilolo from Atlanta (one year, $1.5 million, $400,000 guaranteed). On Sunday, the snap counts were 25 for Willson and 19 for Toilolo. Willson had 37 starts and 89 receptions for the Seahawks from 2013-’17. Toilolo had 57 starts and 74 receptions for the Falcons in the same five-year period.
What scouts say: “I like Luke because he’s pretty athletic and had good speed. I never saw him as being a tough guy. More of a receiver type. He was the complementary guy in Seattle and now he’s the main guy.” … “Toilolo is big and rangy. As a blocker he’s more of a position guy because he doesn’t have that bend to get down there and dig guys out. I never thought he had great hands. Just a big target, man.”

OFFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LT Taylor Decker (6-7, 311, 5.21); LG Frank Ragnow (6-5, 308, 4.99); C Graham Glasgow (6-6, 310, 5.15); RG T.J. Lang (6-4, 315, 5.21), Kenny Wiggins (6-6, 330, no time) or Joe Dahl (6-4, 305, 5.17); RT Rick Wagner (6-6, 315, 5.17).
Key backup – T Tyrell Crosby (6-4 ½, 309, 5.27).
Notes: In 2015, the season before GM Bob Quinn arrived, the starters, from left to right, were Riley Reiff, Laken Tomlinson, Travis Swanson, Larry Warford and Michael Ola. Quinn drafted Decker and Ragnow in the first round and Glasgow in the third. He signed Wagner as an unrestricted free agent from Baltimore and Lang from Green Bay. Lang left the Dallas game after his 10th snap with an apparent concussion. Wiggins, who has incredibly long 36 ¼-inch arms, replaced Lang. An eight-year veteran with four teams, Wiggjns made 16 of his 26 starts for the Chargers in 2017. His two-year, $5 million free-agent deal included $750,000 guaranteed. Wiggins struggled against the Cowboys, leaving open the possibility that Dahl or even Crosby could start at Lang’s position. Dahl, a fifth-round pick in 2016, started at LG against Green Bay in Game 16 last season. Crosby, a fifth-round choice in April, is a tackle but played some guard in training camp. Wagner was beat off the edge for two sacks by the Cowboys’ DeMarcus Lawrence.
What scouts say: “Ragnow has shown steady improvement. He’s better in the run game than he is in pass pro. Taylor Decker is kind of the opposite.” … “Glasgow has been steady. Not great.” … “They paid Ricky Wagner a lot of money to be the right tackle.” … “Wiggins’ arm length is crazy.” … “Most likely Lang won’t be there. The concussion protocol will emphasize he miss at least a week.” … “Decker is big and strong, tough and physical. Just enough movement. Speed will give him a little bit of trouble.” … “Glasgow and Ragnow are interchangeable. Glasgow could go play some guard and Ragnow could play some center. Very similar.” … “Wiggins is a bigger body more than anything else. Does not move well. It’s a good thing he’s at guard because at least they can cover him up. Not very athletic.” … “I liked Wagner a little bit when he was at Baltimore. He’s not overly athletic. He’s a mauler. Has just enough quickness to get up to the second level and get his hands on you. In pass protection he won’t mirror you or anything like that. If you make him move he’s in trouble.”

QUARTERBACKS
Starter – Matthew Stafford (6-2 ½, 220, 4.82).
Backup – Matt Cassel (6-4 ½, 225, 4.91).
Notes: Stafford is coming off a tremendous performance in Dallas, completing 24 of 30 passes for 307 yards, two TDs and no interceptions (131.5 passer rating). He ranks just 22nd in rating at 92.5 largely because of five picks, including four in the opener against the Jets. In 15 games against the Packers he has a passer rating of 88.0. Just two players, both Hall of Famers, have thrown for more TDs against Green Bay than Stafford’s 30. They are Johnny Unitas, 34 in 23 games from 1956-’70, and Fran Tarkenton, 33 in 28 games from 1961-’78.
What scouts say: “Matt Cassel has made a freaking career out of being a backup. It’s amazing. Even at USC he was a backup. He’s the ultimate backup.” … “In terms of arm talent Stafford is one of the more gifted guys in the league. He can torque his arm in almost any direction. His problem is when he tries to force stuff. Sometimes it’s just not there and he believes that his zip can get it in there. A lot of times that backfires on him. He’s mobile enough. He takes a little bit of punishment and tries to fight through it. I think they ask him to do too much. Everybody is kind of waiting for him to be that consistent guy. I think he’s been as good as he’ll ever be.”

RUNNING BACKS
Starters – RB Kerryon Johnson (5-11 ½, 206, 4.55); FB Nick Bellore (6-1, 250, 4.79).
Key backups – RB Theo Riddick (5-10, 201, 4.69); RB LeGarrette Blount (6-0 ½, 247, 4.65); RB Jamal Agnew (5-9, 190, 4.33); RB Ameer Abdullah (5-8 ½, 203, 4.52).
Notes: Johnson, a second-round pick in April, made his first start in Dallas but still played merely 20 snaps compared to 25 for Riddick and 14 for Blount. Johnson is coming off a nine-carry, 55-yard performance against the Cowboys after a 16-101 effort against New England. Riddick, the third-down back, has 21 receptions and just five rushes. A three-time Super Bowl champion for the Patriots and Eagles, Blount took a one-year, fully guaranteed, $2 million deal on March 16. He has 53 career TDs. Abdullah, a 22-game starter from 2015-’17, has been inactive all four games. Agnew gained 17 on a jet sweep in Dallas.
What scouts say: “Blount is a bloody-your-nose type guy. He runs best when his team is ahead and he can just go downhill. He surprised you with some of his athleticism. Not anymore. Now he’s just a four-minute back. He also has ball-security issues. He will fumble.” … “Kerryon has a little toughness and downhill to him.” … “Theo is a true third-down back. There was some thought he actually could have played receiver coming out of Notre Dame. He’s better if you can get him out on little flares or flat routes and check-downs.”

DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Paul Pasqualoni (first year).
Key assistant coaches – Brian Stewart, defensive backs; Al Golden, linebackers.
Notes: It’s coach Matt Patricia’s defense but he allows the 69-year-old Pasqualoni to call at least some of the game. It’s a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense not unlike that coached by Bill Belichick in New England, where Patricia served as an assistant for 14 years. The Lions rank 32nd in rushing yards allowed (157.8) and 30th in yards allowed per carry (5.3). The Patriots, with 89, were the only team failing to reach 100 on the ground against Detroit. The Lions rank eighth in yards allowed (329.5), 24th in points (28.5) and tied for 25th in takeaways (three).
What scouts say: “He (Patricia) will run a lot of different fronts just because a number of their players are hybrid players.” … “They don’t have impact pass rushers other than Ansah. They’ve got to manufacture a pass rush.” … “Even though they call it a 4-3 they have 3-4 personnel.”

DEFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LE Da’Shawn Hand (6-3 ½, 297, 4.84); DT A’Shawn Robinson (6-3 ½, 322, 5.16); DT Sylvester Williams (6-2 ½, 328, 5.01); RE Ziggy Ansah (6-5, 275, 4.63) or Romeo Okwara (6-4 ½, 274, 4.87).
Key backups – DT Ricky Jean Francois (6-2 ½, 309, 5.21); DE Eric Lee (6-3, 255, 4.69); DE Kerry Hyder (6-2 ½, 270, 5.02).
Notes: Ansah is far and away the team’s best pass rusher. However, he took a helmet to the shoulder in the first quarter of the first game and hasn’t played since. He didn’t even practice last week, possibly because of a setback. Okwara, who played 56 of 69 snaps in Dallas, arrived on waivers Sept. 6 after playing three seasons as an undrafted free agent with the Giants. Williams arrived March 21 as a free agent from Tennessee for one year at $3.5 million ($3.4M guaranteed). He made 59 starts for Denver and Tennessee the past five years. Hand, a fourth-round pick in April from Alabama, played 48 snaps in Dallas as an athletic base end. Jean Francois, a former Packer, took the $1.005 million minimum July 26 and plays extensively. Hyder had eight sacks in ’16 but suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in August 2017. His only value now is as an inside rusher in sub. He has been inactive the past two games.
What scouts say: “Okwara is an undersized D-end that has a little bit of explosiveness He goes hard but is more of a one-dimensional pass rusher.” … “A’Shawn is more of a run guy with good size. I’m not sure why he hasn’t taken over as the starter. Got a little bit of explosiveness off the ball but doesn’t maintain it.” … “Ricky Jean has always had athleticism. It’s like he lacks instincts and feel for the game. He has never played to his ability. He always kind of teases you a little bit, enough so you keep him around.” … “Williams is the same way. Clearly, Sly should have been a dominant defender. He doesn’t find the ball as quickly as you think he would. He plays like he didn’t play a lot of football. Just kind of out there.” … “Hand has an anchor. He can stack and shed people. He can set a firm edge in the running game. He plays smart. You can tell he was well-coached (at Alabama). He is athletic and has all the measurables you like. He looks the part, long arms (34 3/8) and all that stuff. He’s a better run defender than a pass rusher. His pass rush is a little raw. More of a base end.”

LINEBACKERS
Starters – SLB Devon Kennard (6-3, 256, 4.66); MLB Jarrad Davis (6-1 ½, 238, 4.63); WLB Christian Jones (6-3, 244, 4.74).
Key backups – SLB Eli Harold (6-3, 243, 4.59); WLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (6-0 ½, 230, 4.70).
Notes: Without Ansah, Kennard (four sacks) has been the No. 1 pass rusher. He arrived March 14 (three years, $17.25 million, $8.5M guaranteed) after posting 35 starts and 9 ½ sacks for the Giants from 2014-’17. Davis, the 21st pick in 2017, leads in tackles with 26 and has two sacks. He just isn’t reliable in coverage. Jones, a former Bear starter, signed a two-year, $6.5 million deal ($2.8M guaranteed) on March 14. On Aug, 23, Quinn traded a conditional seventh-round pick to San Francisco for Harold, who has three sacks.
What scouts say: “Jarrad Davis plays hard, plays fast. He flew around as a rookie and made plays. I thought he’d get dinged up just because he plays so physical. More of a run stopper than a coverage guy.” … “Kennard is a tall, thin guy. In a 3-4 he’d be an outside linebacker that rushes the passer. He’s got good length (33 3/8 arms) and can run and get up field. They’ve got a bunch of those guys.” … “When Eli was in San Francisco he played outside linebacker in a 3-4 and rushed the passer.” … “They’ve got big linebackers. Christian Jones is another one. He’s a run-and-hit type guy. He can chase things down. If he gets a gap he can shoot the gap and make plays. He can get sideline to sideline.”

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Starters – LC Darius Slay (6-0, 190, 4.34); RC Nevin Lawson (5-9 ½, 192, 4.47); SS Quandre Diggs (5-9, 200, 4.52), Tavon Wilson (5-11 ½, 212, 4.52) or Tracy Walker (6-1, 206, 4.53); FS Glover Quin (5-11, 207, 4.51).
Key backups – CB Jamal Agnew (5-9, 190, 4.33); CB Teez Tabor (6-0 ½, 201, 4.64); SS Miles Killebrew (6-3, 222, 4.55).
Notes: There are major questions at safety because Diggs (broken hand) and Wilson (back) were injured in Dallas. If they’re out, the probable starter would be Walker, a third-round pick in April from Louisiana-Lafayette who has played 51 snaps. Tabor, a second-round pick in 2017 who lacks speed, isn’t suited for the slot. In Dallas, the slot job went to Agnew, but he struggled so badly that by game’s end Slay had been moved inside to cover Cole Beasley and Tabor was inserted outside.
What scouts say: “Unlike today’s corners, these guys are smaller. Nevin plays with good toughness. I like that he’s physical. He can get into a receiver’s face. He’ll battle with them. He’ll lose against those bigger receivers like Geronimo Allison or Davante (Adams). Average speed. Pretty good instincts.” … “I still think Slay is in the top echelon of corners in the NFL. Pretty good cover guy. Competes for the ball. Runs well enough.” … “Agnew is a little quick guy. He’ll learn every week when they match him against a slot. Right now he just survives on his ability, not his feel for routes.” … “I still think Glover Quin is one of the smarter safeties in the league. He came out as a corner. Made the transition. He does a nice job anticipating routes. He has lost a step. They’re hoping his instincts and ability to study will cover up for that loss of speed.” … “Wow. They’ve got some issues at safety. If Diggs’ hand is just broke they can wrap it and he can play. He’s the kind of guy people are going to, the corner converting to safety.”

SPECIAL TEAMS
Coordinator – Joe Marciano (fourth year).
Personnel – K Matt Prater (5-10, 201); P-KO-H Sam Martin (6-1, 211); LS Don Muhlbach (6-4, 258); KR-PR Jamal Agnew.
Notes: Prater is eight for 10, with both misses (55, 44) at Ford Field. Martin ranks last in net average (32.4) and 21st in gross (44.6). He also kicks off. Muhlbach has been the team’s snapper since 2004. Agnew returned two punts for TDs last season. He’s averaging just 5.6 on punts and a healthy 27.8 on kickoffs. Nick Bellore, who played at Whitefish Bay High School, shares the team lead in tackles with three.
What scouts say: “I’ve always thought a lot of Prater since he came out (in 2006). He had a big leg. He just needed to work on his accuracy. At first he was just a kickoff guy.” … “Martin doesn’t deserve to be last in the league.” … “Do not kick the ball to Agnew. He’s an explosive little guy who’s probably more impactful as a return guy than he is as a nickel.” … “Muhlbach is about 55 years old (he’s 37). I remember him forever. Just consistent.”




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This plays right into the Lions hands this week. Our WR's are hurt, AR playing average, and MM not wanting to run the ball enough. The Lions D might be fine. Our D, you never know who will show up. I can definitely see us losing this ball game.
 
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