NFC North is the ultimate QB Case Study
The 2023 season began and concluded with the same demoralizing thud. For the Chicago Bears, these weren’t mere L’s on the board. These were sad reminders of the chasm between the state of their franchise and the Green Bay Packers. Right when it appeared they’d catch their nemesis to the north, right when Aaron Rodgers — the old man screaming “I own you!” — was finally gone, here was Jordan Love doing exactly what Rodgers did before him since ‘08. And what Brett Favre did before Rodgers since 1992.
Three decades running, the Packers have enjoyed superior quarterback play.
Bouncing on his back leg before lacing a tight-window touchdown to Dontayvion Wicks on third and 1, gunning a third-and-3 slant to Wicks for another TD, throwing for more yards and more touchdowns than anyone in the Bears’ century-plus history, all while their own latest dart throw — Justin Fields — officially whiffed served as painful nightmare fuel for generations of tormented fans.
But, no. Ryan Poles does not bear the burden of quarterback flops past. When he took over as general manager in 2022, Poles’ clearly knew the gravity of his words.
Reading from a prepared statement, he made a promise:
The only way to do that, he realized, was to take a big swing at quarterback, to select USC’s Caleb Williams No. 1 overall. This is a pick that could theoretically bring such bravado to life. We examined this signature moment in time for the Bears with a two-part series last week. Zoom out on the NFC North as a whole — the best division in the NFL — and you’ll see four sharply different quarterback paths taken.“We’re going to take the North,” he said, “and never give it back.”
How all four gameplans play out in 2024 should be inspected by all teams on the quarterback hunt.
Everyone interviewing for a GM position must sell a fresh quarterback plan to their owner. Nailing this position is everything. With respect to the “culture” Ted Talks, it’s easily No. 1 on the priority list.
How each of these four situations play out could drastically shape future plans, too.
The Bears have commanded the top of the NFL draft the last two years. A stroke of luck was required. Poles should send Frank Reich a weekly bouquet of roses for running such an elementary offense, thus ensuring the Bears had the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. But this is the GM dream, the opportunity to draft the collegiate superstar. The Packers take quarterbacks when there’s zero need to take a quarterback — a brilliant plan. With no owner, Ron Wolf, Ted Thompson and Brian Gutekunst have all had the luxury of making the smart, unpopular decisions. They can realistically give a raw QB three years to sharpen fundamentals, to ease into NFL speed. The Lions, in ruins, accepted Jared Goff (and his bloated contract) as collateral damage in its meticulous rebuild and all Goff did was play his way into the second-richest quarterback contract in the NFL at $53 million per year. A player scapegoated and banished by Sean McVay became the embodiment of everything Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell wanted to build. And the Vikings? They weren’t able to re-sign Kirk Cousins but quickly pivoted to a strategy deployed by many teams in transition mode. They signed vet Sam Darnold and drafted Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. Zygi Wilf hired Kevin O’Connell for such tutelage.
A decisive plan is a must. Ask the Atlanta Falcons.
For three years, they tip-toed around the position. And, full disclosure, we praised the franchise for its fearless thinking in trying to build a bully around an unknown at QB (Desmond Ridder). It did not work. The head coach was fired and the GM, Terry Fontenot, learned a valuable lesson: Rationalizing rarely works in life. Start justifying any decision with “If this… and this… and this…” and… yeah. You’re toast. In retrospect, we shouldn’t be shocked that the Falcons both signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal and drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. Ironically enough, Cousins likely would’ve stayed with the Vikes if he knew the Falcons were applying the Packers model.
When Chicago’s Poles was asked if he was surprised by the Penix pick — his Bears held the ninth selection — the GM couldn’t help but chuckle. This was the universal reaction by just about everyone nationwide. Laughter.
Mockery, however, may soon give way to applause.
If Love builds upon his 2023 season — 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns — you better believe more GMs will have the same conversation Fontenot did with Arthur Blank and this will become the optimal strategy. The comparison isn’t perfect. When Love took over the reins in Green Bay, he was 24 years old. Penix turned 24 nine days ago. Love was taken 26th overall; Penix eighth overall. But those are all minor details if Penix becomes a star. The Falcons are placing a premium value on the one, two, possibly three years of time Penix has to sit. Such long-term thinking requires both guts and trust from ownership that you’ll be employed long enough to see the plan come to fruition.
We live in impatient times. Jobs are on the line every year.
But the perennial winners are anchored in Owner-GM-Head Coach-Quarterback harmony.
Wolf made a habit of drafting quarterbacks even as Favre became a three-time MVP. Given how important the position is in 2024 vs. 1995, it’s smart business to ramp up such urgency. More teams with smart quarterback minds on staff should invest first-round picks on raw quarterbacks — especially in the 20s and 30s.
The Packers aren’t the only team in the NFC North that punched in an uncharted route on the Quarterback GPS. Goff’s resurgence in Detroit should serve as a debilitating blow to NFL ego. McVay is justifiably renowned as one of the game’s preeminent X-and-O innovators. Three of his former assistants are running the three other offenses in this division alone: Matt LaFleur, Shane Waldron and O’Connell. Schematically, he’s been at the sport’s cutting edge.
Naturally, Goff was typecast as a pre-programmed A.I. quarterback told in his headset where to look, where to throw, how to think play to play.
Once McVay gave up, once he shipped Goff (and a ’21 third-rounder and ’22 and ’23 first-rounders off to the Lions) for Matthew Stafford, the former No. 1 pick out of Cal was effectively dismissed as a failure. Clearly, Goff was nothing more than a placeholder for whoever the Lions eventually landed with a top pick. Instead, the Lions built up the offensive line, pursued a specific DNA roster-wide and were led by both a head coach (Dan Campbell) who valued Goff’s underrated toughness and an offensive coordinator (Ben Johnson) who maximized his strengths. Processing is no problem here. Goff is capable of making those crucial split-second decisions and dealing the ball to any square foot of the field vs. man or zone.
He’s remarkably durable. He’s always knows teammates are watching, too. Will never forget my first conversation with Goff. One year into his pro career — with all of zero wins, seven losses and 26 sacks to his pro resume — the QB said this with his feet perched up on a table inside his high school football coach’s office:
“I’m more scared of people thinking I’m a p-ssy than getting hit. I’m more afraid that people will be like ‘He’s a little bitch,’ than I am of truly getting hit. So that’s what drives me to be like, ‘I’m fine.’ That mentality is what keeps me in the game.”
McVay didn’t appreciate and accentuate the best of Goff. But Detroit did. One team’s trash can become another’s treasure.
There’s another Goff out there. Maybe Baker Mayfield proves to be exactly that for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It doesn’t always fly. We’ll see if Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll are right to believe in Daniel Jones as their quarterback. They’re now entering Year 3 with a previous regime’s quarterback, hoping that LSU’s Malik Nabers elevates Jones.
McCarthy is a fascinating prospect who was not asked to carry Michigan. Jim Harbaugh chose to run…. and run… and run to glory, simply asking McCarthy to make key throws on third down when required. The Vikings are banking on O’Connell’s expertise. I wouldn’t bet against him. Elite coaching matters. If McCarthy pans out, more teams led by offensive coaches will take more gambles on wild-card QBs like McCarthy.
Of course, the clearest path to supremacy is to score a high draft pick and swiftly flesh out a contending roster around that rookie contract. The Houston Texans are living this dream with C.J. Stroud. The Bears hope they’re not far behind. And if Williams delivers on this Burrow-sized hype? If he puts an end to this curse? Future teams will do everything they can to land the next anointed one — be it by stockpiling future draft capital or gently lifting their foot off the gas as a 2-11 season runs on empty.
Oh, those Bears. We started our series with the team’s double-doink playoff loss to the Eagles but maybe the more appropriate launching point would’ve been Sept. 19, 2016, the night the Jay Cutler-led Bears lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, 29-14.
Cutler was fresh off one of the best statistical seasons of his career. In ’15, he threw for 3,659 yards with 21 touchdowns and four game-winning drives. Adam Gase, his OC, left for Miami. And in Week 1, one source said, Cutler injured his thumb against the Houston Texans. Few knew. He started against the Eagles on MNF in Week 2, but gripping the football was difficult. He fumbled once and threw a bad interception. Really bad. One of those picks where it appeared Cutler was trying to throw the ball to Philly’s Nigel Bradham.
Local TV cameras famously captured Pernell McPhee — in street clothes, on the PUP list — intentionally bump into and verbally chastise Cutler, who headed into the locker room. One source with the team then remembers players thinking Cutler quit on the team. “And it was pandemonium in our locker room after the game,” the source said. “The guy leading the charge was Pernell McPhee. He was leading a revolt in the locker room like, ‘He quit on us! I don’t want to play for him!’” With Cutler set to miss a month, in Year 8 as a Bear, the team realized it was time to move on and started rigorously researching the incoming class of collegiate prospects.
A lot of work and a lot of conviction went into the decision and…. the Bears missed.
The choice was Mitchell Trubisky. Not Patrick Mahomes. They weren’t alone.
Central to any plan is belief in the quarterback himself. That evaluation chunk of Bears’ quarterback dysphoria is probably worth more than the 33.3 percent ascribed by one former team exec. The Packers can’t take Uncle Rico at 26th overall, sit him three years and expect a decade of division titles. They did their homework on Love and realized he possessed strengths that cannot be coached. The Lions couldn’t expect to salvage the career of a quarterback who was certifiably washed. GM Brad Holmes enjoyed the draft capital attached to Goff in the Stafford trade, sure. But he was also the Los Angeles Rams’ director of college scouting. He knew Goff was wired. He scouted him out of Cal.
The Vikings believe O’Connell and McCarthy is a winning fit.
The Bears punted on the ’23 class with a keen eye toward ’24, toward USC’s Heisman winner.
Match the right plan with the right gut feeling at quarterback and you’ve got a chance at something special. The extreme examples are of course Bill Belichick telling Drew Bledsoe to ride the pine after the $100 Million Dollar QB nearly died from Mo Lewis’ hit on the sideline, Bill Polian choosing Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, Stone-Cold Ted Thompson refusing to grant the wish of angry shareholders the Summer of 2008 and Andy Reid targeting a certain quarterback out of Texas Tech.
All four teams in this division are feeling good about themselves right now.
Whoever finishes as King of North may supply quite a blueprint to the rest of the NFL, too.
