Matt LaFleur: What Would Be Success and Failure 4 Years From Now

Packinatl

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As we enter the new era, and let’s be realistic 4 years from now how would be you judge success or failure
 

GBP4EVER

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Year 1 and 2 a retooling time. Packers will need this time to draft and get talent back on roster use FA some and for LeFleur to get his system in place. Year 3 expect team to be playoff quality possible division winner quality. Year 4 expect him to be pushing for NFCC/SB berth.
 

Half Empty

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You're a LOT more patient and forgiving than I am. :)
 

rpiotr01

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Year 1, depending on the roster, can be something of a mulligan, but after that I think history can be something of a guide. If a coach is going to be successful with a team it happens relatively quickly. Years 2-3, this team should be very competitive. And this is a stat that goes back quite a while, but if a new HC is ever going to lead your team to a SB win, it will happen within the first 4-5 seasons, often within the first 3.

We can also be more abstract about it: LF will be a success if, by the time the dead money on ARs deal goes away, we want to keep AR around. If we do, it means LF will have got him playing his best ball again, and that can be directly linked to LFs coaching. Think back on Favres departure - I don’t want to make the thread about him, but icon status aside, if MM hadn’t gotten a major turnaround season from Favre in 2007, would people be clamoring quite as hard for him to come back? It certainly played a role IMO. Perhaps we’ll look at Rodgers in a similar way in a few years.
 

HowardK4

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As I have said before, I disagree with the notion that our current roster is void of talent. No, we are not the most talented team in the league, and there are a few areas that definitely need an upgrade (Safety, edge, OL depth), but there's talent there (I know many of you love the PFF rankings - https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/teams/green-bay-packers/12/roster). In my opinion, a refresh of the offense will do wonders for Aaron Rodgers - he's seen the innovation in other teams that MM's offense lacked. And I think we all agree that many of the positional coaches just weren't getting the job done. With a reasonable off season, and an upgrade in coaching, the Packers should be back in the playoff hunt in 2019. The team in 2018 quit, and certainly didn't play up to their potential and lost a few games from making stupid mental mistakes; with those things fixed that's a huge step forward.
 
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IMO, this roster is void of talent. We have 5 players that we can build around. AR (At least for 3 years), Adams, Bak, Linsley, and Clark. We have no idea if last years draft will work out or not. Will Alexander make a jump? Will King stop being made of glass? Will our 5th and 6th round WR draft picks step up next year? Most likely a few of theses things may happen but not all of them. We need more depth on the DL, we need two safeties, we need an ILB, more CB depth, another high end WR, and a better OL. That pretty much tells you we need upgrades at every position.

Having said that, if LF can get AR back to playing at his level I expect 2020 to be the season we will be back in the playoffs and competing. 2019 will be learning a new system and getting the veteran and new players adapted to the new culture. Remember, when a new coach comes in, 50% of the roster is wiped clean. It will take time.

I tend to agree with, rp. Year 2 and 3 will be the key to LF's tenor in Green Bay.
 

HowardK4

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I would add that beyond the 5 that Champ mentioned: Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, and Blake Martinez are all players you can also build around; and all of them and a few more grade out at "above average". But yes, we do have a number of players that grade out at simply "average", and a few below average. What I have observed is that as fans, we are much more critical of the talent on our team - if we had the same level of information on other teams, we may see our team in a different light. Also . . . . and I know this will get some comment, there are a number of Packer fans that are so invested in their view that TT and the front office was so bad . . . they will only believe there is a void of talent - right or wrong. I'm not saying that TT et al have been great recently . . . . but there's an obvious bias.
 

Packinatl

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I would add that beyond the 5 that Champ mentioned: Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, and Blake Martinez are all players you can also build around; and all of them and a few more grade out at "above average". But yes, we do have a number of players that grade out at simply "average", and a few below average. What I have observed is that as fans, we are much more critical of the talent on our team - if we had the same level of information on other teams, we may see our team in a different light. Also . . . . and I know this will get some comment, there are a number of Packer fans that are so invested in their view that TT and the front office was so bad . . . they will only believe there is a void of talent - right or wrong. I'm not saying that TT et al have been great recently . . . . but there's an obvious bias.
My concern has always been depth. The first 22 is workable if you are ok with 9-7 / 10-6. Deep with Ok talent but void of playmakers. And average talent won’t win championships
 

GBP4EVER

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I would add that beyond the 5 that Champ mentioned: Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, and Blake Martinez are all players you can also build around; and all of them and a few more grade out at "above average". But yes, we do have a number of players that grade out at simply "average", and a few below average. What I have observed is that as fans, we are much more critical of the talent on our team - if we had the same level of information on other teams, we may see our team in a different light. Also . . . . and I know this will get some comment, there are a number of Packer fans that are so invested in their view that TT and the front office was so bad . . . they will only believe there is a void of talent - right or wrong. I'm not saying that TT et al have been great recently . . . . but there's an obvious bias.
I don't think Aaron Jones is a build around player he's not a 3 down back nor can stay healthy he's a role player.
 

57packer

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I like the hiring but like everyone else, I have no idea how it will turn out. He could be the next Sean Payton or the next Mark Trestman. I hope and believe he'll be closer to the former but I really don't know for sure.

When I try to assess the talent on this roster or any other, and maybe it's because I'm getting older, but I go back to the Ron Wolf school of thought. How are you covered at the "high value" positions - QB, LT, Pass Rush, CB. Those are the hardest to get, cost you a ton in FA which messes with your CAP, and force you to use up 1st and 2nd round picks to cover them. If you are missing most or all of them it's gonna be harder for the GM to fix and it's gonna take longer.

The Packers have some significant gaps in their roster, BUT, they are not in the same level of trouble as some teams drafting early. They have a legit QB. They have a solid starting LT. They might have a couple of good CBs if they stay healthy and continue to develop in King and Alexander. They are seriously lacking in pass rush.

The good news is that if you think the CBs can turn out to be decent, the positions that need shoring up can be dealt with a little more easily by the GM.
1) Find a good safety and OG in FA. Not cheap but usually not megabucks type positions.
2) Fill in some depth with a couple of lower priced FA including re-signing Breeland.
3) Draft a couple of guys who can rush the passer in the first 2 rounds.
4) Draft a couple of OL in the middle rounds to add depth there.
5) Use the remaining 6 picks to add depth at WR, TE, RB, S, CB and ILB.

That can all legitimately be done in 2019. It might not all work out but it's possible. If you do that, you won't have a perfect roster and won't be Super Bowl ready yet, but I think it can make you much more competitive in 2019 and poised to be a contender by 2021.
 
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