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I said in another thread that I wanted to go back and look at the how the team has actually played this season. We got out to a 6-0 start, but I feel like the cracks that have since fractured were actually present.
What I'll mostly be looking at are Aaron Rodgers' stats thru week 16 (because as Rodgers goes, so goes the team) which is a lot more time efficient that tracking down film of all 15 games, and I'll pepper it with other stats as I deem necessary. Quotes are from the post-game comments in the threads. QBR is x/100, QB Rating is x/153.3 (and I don't necessarily like either of those stats, but they're there so I'm putting them in).
Week 1
Opponent: @Chicago--Win 31-23
AR: 18 for 23 (78.3%) for 189 yards and 3 TDs (QBR: 94.4/QB Rating 140.5)
What we thought then: "usual early season sloppiness" "sloppy game" "damn that defense" "Lacy energized, receivers sure-handed"
What it looks like now: Chicago is currently the 4th ranked passing defense, so ARs numbers aren't that concerning. Lacy averaged 4.5 ypc on 19 attempts for 85 yards and a TD, and the defense has done what it's done all year: let a team score in the low 20s upper teens with an offense designed to score more.
Week 2
Opponent: vs Seattle--Win 27-17
AR: 25 for 33 (75.8%) for 249 and 2 TDs (QBR: 89.2/QB Rating 116.9)
What we thought then: "4th quarter comeback for AR" "oline played well" "MM looked out-coached at times" "Monty is huge for this offense"
What it looks like now: The Seahawks definitely weren't the team at the beginning of the season they are now. They had shored up their oline since we played them only to be dismantled up front by St. Louis. Graham the TE just isn't meant for this team, and the defense of years' past isn't the same playing for Seattle right now. The biggest thing this game showed is just how much Montgomery was meaning to this team, and that they greatly miss him right now.
Week 3
Opponent: vs KC--win 38-28 (note: Pack was up 31-7
AR: 24/35 (68.6%) for 333 and 5 TDs (QBR: 78/QB Rating 138.5)
What we thought then: "Lacy is tough as nails" "all these quick passes are gonna make defenses creep up and we're going to burn them deep" "only stopped by our own penalties" "Rodgers confident and cool under pressure. Enjoy...won't have it forever" "any negatives are just nit-picking"
What it looks like now: this was the offenses most outstanding performance of the season against a team that started 1-5, but managed to reel off 9 wins and become a playoff team. But is still just the 13th ranked pass defense (Seattle sits at #2 currently)
Week 4
Opponent: @ SF--win 17-3
AR: 22/32 (68.8%) for 224 and 1 TD (QBR: 80.7/ QB Rating 99)
What we thought then: "poor oline play hindered us" "Rodgers is a magician" "disappointing we converted so few 3rd downs" "AR a little off most of the day" "penalties killed 3 drives"
What it looks like now: here is where the cracks really started showing. SF was, and is, an absolute mess. That we didn't destroy them should have been a wake up call. They sit 25th in pass D, 28th in rush D, 29th in ypg, 19th in points allowed. I feel like we knew that back then, but the joy of finally beating both Seattle and SF helped mask it.
Week 5
Opponent: vs St. Louis--win 24-10
AR: 19/30 (63.3%) for 241 and 2 TDs, 2 INTs (QBR: 41.1/QB Rating 82.8)
What we thought then: there are threads titled "Solving the Wide Receiver Struggles" "Rodgers admits Packers offense is Struggling" and "ESPN on Packers "Something is amiss here"" we also thought: "ugly win" "worried about offense, only 17 points 2 weeks in a row" "guys not getting separation even with Rodgers having time in the pocket" "AR off today" "Starks and Lacy shut down for second week in a row"
What it looks like now: St. Louis is very clearly a good defensive football team, though the stats don't back it up (bottom half in every category except for points allowed (they're 13th). Some of that has to do with their offensive issues, but it was more apparent that things weren't quite right in Green Bay.
Week 6
Opponent: vs SD--win 27-20
AR: 16/29 (55.2%) for 255 and 2 TDs (QBR: 75.8/QB Rating 107.7)
What we thought then: most of the comments are about the defense, the rest are about Lacy's 3 yards on 4 attempts performance compared with Starks' 100 yards on 10 carries. Some other talk about the WRs inability to get open. SD does have the 11th ranked pass D, but is 23 against the run and 18th in points allowed. Also showed a great inability to convert on third down.
What it looks like now: we weren't able to put away a crap team that was riddled with injuries, and only another injury to their best WR is what won us the game.
Week 7
Opponent: our bye--nothing good, that's for sure.
Week 8
Opponent: @Den--loss 10-29
AR: 14/22 (63.6) for 77 yards (QBR: 64.6/QB Rating 69.7)
What we thought then: "total team loss" "completely out coached" "AR was part of the problem tonight" "can't say whether I blame Clements, Rodgers, or the WRs...I guess it's a little of each of them" "Every concern we had going into the bye week was exposed ever more" "Stubborn coaching staff" "AR seems not to trust himself or his receivers as much as he used to" and my favorite: "Carr put up 250, Josh McCown put up over 200 plus a couple TDs...This isn't just a loss. They had an extra week to prepare and this is what you put out there?"
What it looks like now: Denver has the top defense in the league, and by quite a fair margin. But we got drubbed, absolutely pantsed on national tv and haven't looked any better since then. Not sure if this or @ AZ was worse.
I'm going to stop here because we all know what happened in the Carolina game and the rest of the season since then. But for the month of November, AR was pretty average. 112/208 (53.8%) for 1193 (238.6/game) with 9 TDs and 2 INTs. December wasn't much better, just with a few more wins.
Here are the numbers on the WRs (the stats I found didn't have drops, and I'm not sure how loose ESPNs "receiving targets stat is, but it's there)
Randall Cobb 73/121 (60.3% catch rate) for 792 and 6 TD
James Jones 46/87 (52.9% catch rate) for 788 and 8 TD,
Richard Rodgers 51/77 (66.2% catch rate) for 451 and 7 TD
Davante Adams 46/87 (52.9% catch rate) for 429 and 1 TD
James Starks 40/50 (80% catch rate) for 374 and 3 TD
Eddie Lacy 18/26 (69% catch rate) for 181 and 2 TD
Ty Montgomery 15/18 (83.3%) for 136 and 2 TD
Abby 9/16 (56%) 111 and 0 TD
Perillo 11/13 (84.6%) 102 and 1 TD
Janis 2/11 (18%) 79 and 0 TD
Here's the top three guys from last year:
Jordy 98/151 (64.9%) for 1519 and 13 TD
Cobb 91/126 (72.2%) for 1287 and 12 TD
Adams 38/66 (57.6%) for 446 and 3 TDs
What I'll mostly be looking at are Aaron Rodgers' stats thru week 16 (because as Rodgers goes, so goes the team) which is a lot more time efficient that tracking down film of all 15 games, and I'll pepper it with other stats as I deem necessary. Quotes are from the post-game comments in the threads. QBR is x/100, QB Rating is x/153.3 (and I don't necessarily like either of those stats, but they're there so I'm putting them in).
Week 1
Opponent: @Chicago--Win 31-23
AR: 18 for 23 (78.3%) for 189 yards and 3 TDs (QBR: 94.4/QB Rating 140.5)
What we thought then: "usual early season sloppiness" "sloppy game" "damn that defense" "Lacy energized, receivers sure-handed"
What it looks like now: Chicago is currently the 4th ranked passing defense, so ARs numbers aren't that concerning. Lacy averaged 4.5 ypc on 19 attempts for 85 yards and a TD, and the defense has done what it's done all year: let a team score in the low 20s upper teens with an offense designed to score more.
Week 2
Opponent: vs Seattle--Win 27-17
AR: 25 for 33 (75.8%) for 249 and 2 TDs (QBR: 89.2/QB Rating 116.9)
What we thought then: "4th quarter comeback for AR" "oline played well" "MM looked out-coached at times" "Monty is huge for this offense"
What it looks like now: The Seahawks definitely weren't the team at the beginning of the season they are now. They had shored up their oline since we played them only to be dismantled up front by St. Louis. Graham the TE just isn't meant for this team, and the defense of years' past isn't the same playing for Seattle right now. The biggest thing this game showed is just how much Montgomery was meaning to this team, and that they greatly miss him right now.
Week 3
Opponent: vs KC--win 38-28 (note: Pack was up 31-7
AR: 24/35 (68.6%) for 333 and 5 TDs (QBR: 78/QB Rating 138.5)
What we thought then: "Lacy is tough as nails" "all these quick passes are gonna make defenses creep up and we're going to burn them deep" "only stopped by our own penalties" "Rodgers confident and cool under pressure. Enjoy...won't have it forever" "any negatives are just nit-picking"
What it looks like now: this was the offenses most outstanding performance of the season against a team that started 1-5, but managed to reel off 9 wins and become a playoff team. But is still just the 13th ranked pass defense (Seattle sits at #2 currently)
Week 4
Opponent: @ SF--win 17-3
AR: 22/32 (68.8%) for 224 and 1 TD (QBR: 80.7/ QB Rating 99)
What we thought then: "poor oline play hindered us" "Rodgers is a magician" "disappointing we converted so few 3rd downs" "AR a little off most of the day" "penalties killed 3 drives"
What it looks like now: here is where the cracks really started showing. SF was, and is, an absolute mess. That we didn't destroy them should have been a wake up call. They sit 25th in pass D, 28th in rush D, 29th in ypg, 19th in points allowed. I feel like we knew that back then, but the joy of finally beating both Seattle and SF helped mask it.
Week 5
Opponent: vs St. Louis--win 24-10
AR: 19/30 (63.3%) for 241 and 2 TDs, 2 INTs (QBR: 41.1/QB Rating 82.8)
What we thought then: there are threads titled "Solving the Wide Receiver Struggles" "Rodgers admits Packers offense is Struggling" and "ESPN on Packers "Something is amiss here"" we also thought: "ugly win" "worried about offense, only 17 points 2 weeks in a row" "guys not getting separation even with Rodgers having time in the pocket" "AR off today" "Starks and Lacy shut down for second week in a row"
What it looks like now: St. Louis is very clearly a good defensive football team, though the stats don't back it up (bottom half in every category except for points allowed (they're 13th). Some of that has to do with their offensive issues, but it was more apparent that things weren't quite right in Green Bay.
Week 6
Opponent: vs SD--win 27-20
AR: 16/29 (55.2%) for 255 and 2 TDs (QBR: 75.8/QB Rating 107.7)
What we thought then: most of the comments are about the defense, the rest are about Lacy's 3 yards on 4 attempts performance compared with Starks' 100 yards on 10 carries. Some other talk about the WRs inability to get open. SD does have the 11th ranked pass D, but is 23 against the run and 18th in points allowed. Also showed a great inability to convert on third down.
What it looks like now: we weren't able to put away a crap team that was riddled with injuries, and only another injury to their best WR is what won us the game.
Week 7
Opponent: our bye--nothing good, that's for sure.
Week 8
Opponent: @Den--loss 10-29
AR: 14/22 (63.6) for 77 yards (QBR: 64.6/QB Rating 69.7)
What we thought then: "total team loss" "completely out coached" "AR was part of the problem tonight" "can't say whether I blame Clements, Rodgers, or the WRs...I guess it's a little of each of them" "Every concern we had going into the bye week was exposed ever more" "Stubborn coaching staff" "AR seems not to trust himself or his receivers as much as he used to" and my favorite: "Carr put up 250, Josh McCown put up over 200 plus a couple TDs...This isn't just a loss. They had an extra week to prepare and this is what you put out there?"
What it looks like now: Denver has the top defense in the league, and by quite a fair margin. But we got drubbed, absolutely pantsed on national tv and haven't looked any better since then. Not sure if this or @ AZ was worse.
I'm going to stop here because we all know what happened in the Carolina game and the rest of the season since then. But for the month of November, AR was pretty average. 112/208 (53.8%) for 1193 (238.6/game) with 9 TDs and 2 INTs. December wasn't much better, just with a few more wins.
Here are the numbers on the WRs (the stats I found didn't have drops, and I'm not sure how loose ESPNs "receiving targets stat is, but it's there)
Randall Cobb 73/121 (60.3% catch rate) for 792 and 6 TD
James Jones 46/87 (52.9% catch rate) for 788 and 8 TD,
Richard Rodgers 51/77 (66.2% catch rate) for 451 and 7 TD
Davante Adams 46/87 (52.9% catch rate) for 429 and 1 TD
James Starks 40/50 (80% catch rate) for 374 and 3 TD
Eddie Lacy 18/26 (69% catch rate) for 181 and 2 TD
Ty Montgomery 15/18 (83.3%) for 136 and 2 TD
Abby 9/16 (56%) 111 and 0 TD
Perillo 11/13 (84.6%) 102 and 1 TD
Janis 2/11 (18%) 79 and 0 TD
Here's the top three guys from last year:
Jordy 98/151 (64.9%) for 1519 and 13 TD
Cobb 91/126 (72.2%) for 1287 and 12 TD
Adams 38/66 (57.6%) for 446 and 3 TDs
bravo sir.. awesome write up....
