DPF 2016.2 - pre-combine edition

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DenverPackFan

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This mock features a blockbuster trade!

Prior to the draft, the Packers trade their first round pick, #27 overall, David Bakhtiari and Davante Adams to the Cleveland Browns for their 3rd round pick, #65 overall, and Joe Thomas.

I believe this is a fair trade for Cleveland who need a WR and are rumored to have been open to trading Thomas. Bakhtiari gives them a decent LT replacement and they get a late 1st round pick, too.

The Packers get an upgrade at LT who is under contract for the next 3 seasons and we don't mortgage the future to do it.

They also keep Crosby, Perry and Kuhn.

The draft: (The number after the school is the CBS ranking as of 2/19/2016)
Round 2 - Pick #57:
Chris Jones (DT - Mississippi St; 74):

A little raw but great upside. Gotta take advantage of the DL depth in this draft.

Round 3 - Pick #65 (from Cleveland):
Sterling Sheppard (WR - Oklahoma; 76):

Some say he is the best route-runner in the draft. We keep the WR pipeline flowing. Remember, we trade Adams to the Browns in this mock.

Round 3 - Pick #88:
Tyler Higbee (TE - Western Kentucky; 110)

I've read some good things about Higbee who will hopefully give us a dynamic TE.

Round 4:
Paul Perkins (RB - UCLA; 116)

Hopefully he avoids injury like the last UCLA RB we drafted.

Round 4 (comp pick):
Beniquez Brown (LB - Mississippi St.; 376)

I don't know much about him, but Ted Thompson is rumored to have interest.

Round 4 (comp pick):
Joe Thuney (OL - North Carolina St.; 293)

Holdover from my first mock. I still think he fits the TT mold of taking a mid-round OT that is versatile.

Round 5:
Victor Ochi (OLB - Stony Brook; 170):

Shrine Bowl standout.

Round 6:
Tom Hackett (P - Utah; 155):

Another holdover from my first mock.

Round 7:
Casanova McKinzy (ILB - Auburn; 355):

ILB depth with upside.


Obviously, the main improvement with this draft is getting a guy who is arguably the best left tackle in the NFL for the next 3 years. Defense is still addressed, but plenty of attention paid to the other offensive needs with a TE, RB and OL selected.
 
I like the trade. Reflects the urgency TT should be feeling. The picks after that are areas we need, but using the CBS board are reaches. The first 'value' pick is Perkins in the fourth. Can't argue with the positions addressed, but if we get rid of Adams I would like more than a 'poor man's' Cobb to replace him.
I really like your other mocks more than this, maybe it's because you started with a bang up trade and then got very safe.

Really like your perspectives on the draft thought process though. Hope this doesn't come off wrong, just don't get a good vibe off some of these guys. But YOU are the reigning Guru.
 
Hard to find a guy who will have a big impact when you trade away your first round pick. I thought about making the trade giving up our 2nd round pick instead of the 1st for 3rd swap, which is pretty equivalent for value but figured that this way the Browns could claim a faux victory with the 1st rounder.

I'm curious to see how the CBS ranking change after the combine. I think they are a good indication for the higher-ranked players but are just kind of a dart board once it gets into the 4th-round area at this point. I was picking guys based on where I think they might end up rather than on the current rankings, but include the rankings as a frame of reference. Plus, it will be interesting to look back at these in a few weeks and see if some of the player rankings are radically different than they are now.

I also briefly thought of starting with the trade above but then trading our 2nd and the 3rd from Cleveland which might get us back into the bottom of round 1 or the very top of round 2. Then we might be able to land an early contributor.

The other struggle that I had with this particular mock was Beniquez Brown. It sounds like TT was very interested in him, but I have so little info on him that it was hard to know what round he might go in. His current CBS ranking would make him an UDFA, but I suspect that is because he was a surprise early entrant and there just isn't much info out there yet.

Anyway, this scenario is pretty improbable but it occurred to me and I just thought I'd throw it out there for discussion. Could Joe Thomas and the return of Jordy Nelson make our offense elite barring any significant injuries?
 
It does seem like the first 30-40 are consistently rated and the rest are all over the place. I like the FanSpeak simulator. They have about 5-6 different 'Big Boards' to work off of. You see some sights with guys who are 3rd rounders and on other sites they're UDFAs. Is it possible that we have too much information out there? I've always kind of agreed with Charlie Campbell on Walter's Football.

One thing that I always wonder is if our window is indeed closing is it worth trading our 1st pick next year for a guy who could come in and help now! Say, for arguments sake, Ragland falls to us. Would it be prudent to trade #1 next year for a top 10 2nd round pick to bring in TE Hunter or Noah Spence or Vernon Butler? Another contributor this year?

I do believe Joe Thomas and a healthy Jordy would make us top three offense again.
 
It would have to be a special player, like Clay, to trade a future 1st round pick. I think those odds are so long that it just doesn't make sense. Plus, it would make the 2017 draft discussion pretty boring if we aren't picking until #64!

That said, trading 2016 picks and/or players might make some sense. Is Ragland worth giving up our 1st and 2nd pick for? I don't think so. Now if he falls far enough that we give up our 3rd to move up 5-10 spots to get him I might be able to get on board with that. Right now, it looks like the most prudent choice would be to stay at #27 and take whichever DT is there. The range includes Robinson, Billings, Nkemdiche, Reed, Rankins, Clark, Butler, Austin Johnson and Washington. Who knows what order that they will go in but probably half of those guys will still be there at #27. That is if Spence, Jaylon Smith and Ragland are already gone. Darron Lee, too.
 
OK, I'll be a bit negative. I like the players in the mock, so no problem with that. Not sure I agree with the strategy. Who was the last true premier LT to take a team to a Super Bowl? Over the last 20 years, the Super Bowl winner has had an all-pro left tackle only twice and a Pro Bowler only four times.

Having one is a nice bonus, but hardly necessary to be a Super Bowl team. On that basis, I'm not sure why I'd trade the opportunity to draft a difference maker for a nice to have LT. We were inches away from a Super Bowl in 2014 with BahkT. Maybe it's just me, but I have no desire to give up a first round pick right now. Give me a potential starter in Rd 1 and a back-up tackle in one of the next 2 rounds. Again, maybe it's just me.
 
That sounds perfectly reasonable. I've heard that LT stat before. I think wishing for stability on our OL is kind of a soft spot right now. How do you feel about trading next years pick for a pick this year? Just kinda spinning my wheels with scenarios, I'm even watching last years combine! WTH?
 
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