CC's 16 team NCAA Football Postseason Tournament (2018)

[Crease Creature]

The seeding is done and the bracket is getting put together as you read this. I wanted to go through my seeds.

The 10 conference champions are seeded first, the top 8 host a game at their campus. The criteria for seeding the champs was:

-Conference Record
---Undefeated champs go first
-----remaining conference winners seeded by below criteria

further seeding criteria was (not in any order)
-overall record

-strength of schedule
---Opponent Total Ranking (OTR)
-----OTR is figured by adding together the final Massey composite ranking of all opponents
on a team's schedule. FCS teams are counted as their FCS rank +130
+scored golf style, lower the better

-Rank of average win
---Figured by dividing the OTR for all victories by # of victories

-Best win
+eye test of highest ranked victory

-avg loss
+the average ranking of all opponents not defeated

-worst loss
+rank of lowest unbeaten opponent

-Win Multiplier
+Total FBS victories of all beaten opponents.
++WM wasn't done when the seeding was more apparent.

So, now that you see all that, the seeds. Please note that for the bracket, things such as regional geography are taken into consideration, so the bracket may not come out to be 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, etc, exactly. I do my best to keep things even but fair.

• Clemson (Atlantic Coast Conference)
  • #1 Seed
    • undefeated in conference and regular season play (8-0, 13-0)
    • SoS--OTR: 714
    • Avg Win: 54.9
    • best win: @ #16 Texas A&M
    • WinX: 72
• Alabama (Southeastern Conference)
  • #2 Seed
    • undefeated in conference and regular season play (9-0, 13-0)
    • SoS--OTR: 757
    • Avg Win: 58.23
    • best win: #3 Georgia (neutral)
    • WinX: 67
• UCF (American Athletic Conference)
  • #3 Seed
    • undefeated in conference and regular season play (9-0, 12-0)
    • SoS--OTR: 1,046
    • best win: #28 Cincinnati
      
• Oklahoma (BigXII Conference)
  • #4 Seed
    • 9-1 in conference play (12-1 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 679
    • Avg Win: 56.58
    • best win: @ #18 WVU
    • loss: #21 Texas (neutral)
• Ohio State (B1G Conference)
  • #5 Seed
    • 8-1 in conference play (12-1 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 731
    • Avg Win: 60.9
    • best win: #7 Michigan
    • loss: @ 39 Purdue (smashed)
• Washington (Pac-12 Conference)
  • #6 Seed
    • 7-2 in conference play (10-3 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 747
    • Avg Win: 63.2
    • best win: @ #12 Wazzou
    • Avg Loss: 38 (Auburn, Oregon, Cal)
    • worst loss: @ #54 Cal
    • WinX: 52
• Fresno State (Mountain West Conference)
  • #7 Seed
    • 7-1 in conference play (11-2 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 1118
    • Avg Win: 94.36
    • best win: #22 Boise St (neutral)
    • Avg Loss: 40 (Minnesota, Boise St)
    • worst loss: @ #58 Minnesota
    • WinX: 49
• Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference)
  • #8 Seed
    • 8-1 in conference play (10-2 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 1171
    • Avg Win: 110.5
    • best win: #53 Troy
    • Avg Loss: 33 (Penn St (OT), GA Southern)
    • worst loss: @ #55 Georgia Southern
• Alabama-Birmingham (Conference USA)
  • #9 Seed
    • 8-1 in conference play (10-3 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 1310
    • Avg Win: 112.9
    • best win: #60 MTSU (neutral)
    • Avg Loss: 60 (CCU, Tx A&M, MTSU)
    • worst loss: @ #105 Coastal Carolina
• Northern Illinois (Mid-American Conference)
  • #10 Seed
    • 6-2 in conference play (8-5 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 952
    • Avg Win: 83
    • best win: #48 Buffalo (neutral)
    • Avg Loss: 57.6 (Iowa, Utah, FSU, Miami (OH), W.Mich)
    • worst loss: @ #91 Western Michigan
      
      
• At Large: Notre Dame
  • #11 Seed
    • undefeated in regular season play (12-0)
    • too bad they're not in a conference...
      
• At Large: Georgia
  • #12 Seed
    • 7-2 in conference play (11-2 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 626
    • Avg Win: 56
    • best win: #13 Florida
    • Avg Loss: 5 (Bama, LSU)
    • worst loss: #9 LSU
      
• At Large: Michigan
  • #13 Seed
    • 8-1 in conference play (10-2 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 655
    • Avg Win: 64.6
    • best win: #11 Penn State
    • Avg Loss: 4.5 (Notre Dame, Ohio St)
    • worst loss: @ #5 Ohio State (smashed)
    • WinX: 55
      
• At Large: Penn State
  • #14 Seed
    • 6-3 in conference play (9-3 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 667
    • Avg Win: 68.88
    • best win: #25 Iowa
    • Avg Loss: 15.66 (Ohio St, MSU, Michigan)
    • worst loss: #35 Michigan St
    • WinX: 44
    • Head to Head loss to Michigan
      
• here's where it got tricky
• At Large: LSU
  • #15 Seed
    • 5-3 in conference play (9-3 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 711
    • Avg Win: 75.66
    • best win: #3 Georgia
    • Avg Loss: 10 (Auburn, Florida, Tx A&M)
    • worst loss: @ #17 Texas A&M (7 overtimes)
    • WinX: 40
• At Large: West Virginia
  • #16 Seed
    • 6-3 in conference play (8-3 overall)
    • SoS--OTR: 701
    • Avg Win: 76 / 68
    • best win: @ #21 Texas
    • Avg Loss: 28 (ISU, Ok St, OU)
    • worst loss: @ #48 Ok St
    • WinX: 34

There's the field. The First Four Out:
Kentucky (loss to Tennessee was a killer--nearly identical to WVU, I almost put them side by side for you guys to pick)
Florida (lost to UK, though had beaten LSU. Higher OTR, lower WinX)
Boise State (Couldn't beat Fresno twice)
Washington State (weakest P5 schedule I looked over)

Ten win teams who were considered but didn't make the cut: Utah State, Buffalo, Cincinnati.
Army got a hard look as well, but not Troy. After that it's a bunch of 3-4 loss teams.

Bracketing will be put up later this week.

 

[TW]

I think a 16 team playoff makes sense, regardless of all the hoopla against it. If a team "fears" getting upset in the playoffs, they probably shouldn't be in them anyway.

This levels the playing field quite a bit.

 

[FlaPack]

I can’t see it going to 16 anytime soon. Would have to reduce season by 1 week, nobody will want to give ill a home game and really disrupts the current bowl structure, again $$$.

8 is feasible. Conference champ from each Power 5 conference, highest ranked Group of 5 team and 2 at large. Adds one week, eliminated are conference championship games.

 

[GBP4EVER]

I can’t see it going to 16 anytime soon. Would have to reduce season by 1 week, nobody will want to give ill a home game and really disrupts the current bowl structure, again $$$.

8 is feasible. Conference champ from each Power 5 conference, highest ranked Group of 5 team and 2 at large. Adds one week, eliminated are conference championship games.

I think this would work

Power 5 champs
If a FBS team ranks in top 10-15 they get a spot
Then 2 at large and if FBS team does not qualify 3 at large spots.

 

[TW]

Lose a week? Not necessary. Add a week, two if necessary. More money for the NCAA and they'll love it.

 

[FlaPack]

Lose a week? Not necessary. Add a week, two if necessary. More money for the NCAA and they'll love it.

The NCAA does not run or control the college football playoffs, not an NCAA event. It’s basically a cash cow for the Power 5 conferences. University presidents have been adamant not to add a 13th week, was hard enough to get a 12th week on the schedule.

They already begin the season Labor Day weekend and run thru Thanksgiving. And they don’t want to mess witn Bowls, again conference revenue. And even eliminating conferences championships games will not be easy, big revenue for the SEC

 

[Crease Creature]

The NCAA does not run or control the college football playoffs, not an NCAA event.

That's what this is more mirrored as, the march basketball tourney. Hence why all the smaller conference champs get in.

I also put this together with absolutely no concern being given to academics or player safety. The only thing I considered was whether to overshadow the Army-Navy game by having these games start that same evening. But given that last year Navy would have made it had they won and Army got considered this year, the games would start this weekend.

 

[FlaPack]

That's what this is more mirrored as, the march basketball tourney. Hence why all the smaller conference champs get in.

I also put this together with absolutely no concern being given to academics or player safety. The only thing I considered was whether to overshadow the Army-Navy game by having these games start that same evening. But given that last year Navy would have made it had they won and Army got considered this year, the games would start this weekend.

I get that. If I was doing a 16 game set up its Power 5 champs plus any large for the balance. Get the best 16 teams in.

 

[Crease Creature]

I get that. If I was doing a 16 game set up its Power 5 champs plus any large for the balance. Get the best 16 teams in.

This is a year where it was hard enough to fill out the 6 at-large bids I use because of a drop in quality after the top 8, and a massive drop after the top 12. I think we would agree that 4-loss teams probably shouldn't make it, which if you look at the Massey composite (which is what I use to assign rankings for the OTR) there were two 8-4 teams in the top 16.

Something I try to use this to do is get outside some of the more "prestigious" programs, reward teams that won their conference (NIU beating Buffalo threw a wrench at me). I also like looking at how teams schedule. That is what drags down some of the additional SEC schools is they'll have 2 or even 3 FCS teams on the docket, and most of them aren't any good even at that level.

Fun fact: Washington State and Army are the only teams that played an FCS school that finished ranked in their top 25 (and one of them is still playing in their playoff).

 

[FlaPack]

This is a year where it was hard enough to fill out the 6 at-large bids I use because of a drop in quality after the top 8, and a massive drop after the top 12. I think we would agree that 4-loss teams probably shouldn't make it, which if you look at the Massey composite (which is what I use to assign rankings for the OTR) there were two 8-4 teams in the top 16.

Something I try to use this to do is get outside some of the more "prestigious" programs, reward teams that won their conference (NIU beating Buffalo threw a wrench at me). I also like looking at how teams schedule. That is what drags down some of the additional SEC schools is they'll have 2 or even 3 FCS teams on the docket, and most of them aren't any good even at that level.

Fun fact: Washington State and Army are the only teams that played an FCS school that finished ranked in their top 25 (and one of them is still playing in their playoff).

Yep its hard which is another reason why 16 teams is a pipe dream. I tend to look at it this way. On a neutral field would a 3-4 loss team be favored over a Fresno or Northern Illinois. More the eye test and I think the committee does a very good job to that.

Another option is 10 or 12 teams with top 4 getting bye weeks, its complicated but I don't think in our lifetime we see more than 8