2021 NFL Draft: What’s the Market Package for a Player Opting Out?

FlaPack

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So what will agents pay for guys opting out? Based on some info I got in the last week of so here is some numbers, its uncharted territory with longer time table until draft time.....enjoy

First half of first round (1-20): these are the players that probably can safely opt out. (Chase from LSU) That means their market probably doesn’t slide much.

Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: Depending on how close they are to No. 1, you’re looking at $7,000-$8,000 per month through the draft and a marketing guarantee that’s in the $150,000-$300,000 range.

Also: Training of player’s choice (probably about $30,000 all in, maybe $10,000 higher if he starts training now), rental car, housing, etc.

Late first to early second (21-50): These are the names you’re seeing populate multiple mock drafts in the 15-32 range. Some of these players will slide, but they seem safe to fall no farther than the end of Day 2.

Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: some hefty marketing guarantees for players in this range already, but it’s risky. I’d say you’re safest in the $50,000-$30,000 range. As far as stipend, probably around $5,000/month through the draft should get it done.

Also: Same as above on training and other amenities.

Late second to end of third: This is a tricky area, because players will think they can opt out and maybe slide into first-round territory, when really they’re in danger of sliding into Day 3. If you’re an agent, that’s not an easy message to convey.

Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: You’re in trouble if you overpay on per diem for eight months here...guess is you want to stay in the same range that you would have paid for four months ($20,000-$25,000), but spread it over eight. You probably want to stay south of $4,000/month here. Marketing guarantee would have to be no more than $10,000-$15,000, depending on how high you have to go on the per diem. You’ll get that back on the trading card deal anyway, presuming he doesn’t have a marketing guy.

Also: Same as above on training and other amenities, but maybe you can get away with a slightly smaller package for a player at a non-sexy position (interior o-line, inside linebacker, maybe safety). But probably not.

Bubble Day 3/ to end of fifth round: This is where you’re hoping you can show the player a nice training package and that’s enough. Stipends have to be in the $1,500/month area, no more than $2,000/month through the draft. These are the players that are really in danger of falling out of the draft if they’re not playing.

Estimated stipend/marketing guarantee and per diem: You have to have a Day 3 mindset for these players. Stipend/MG has to be $10,000 or less. Per diem can’t be over $1,500/month thru draft or you’re really gambling.

Also: This is where you push your trainer who’ll make you a deal, or maybe who is really aching to train a guy who could go Day 2. If you’re lucky, you stash the kid at a trainer who’s not in the Sun Belt, which also saves you money. The problem is that it’s gonna be hard to talk him out of the blue-chip training facilities, and if you have to go $30,000 to train him, you gotta make cuts elsewhere. This is where the middle-class agencies are hitting the rocks these days.
 
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Wow, very interesting. Thank you for the info!.

Assuming that all of this investment in a player is like a loan and recouped after a player is signed?

If so that is very comparable to the old recording contracts companies gave bands and would recoup back from record sales (keeping it simple here as a lot more involved in those contracts)
 
Wow, very interesting. Thank you for the info!.

Assuming that all of this investment in a player is like a loan and recouped after a player is signed?

If so that is very comparable to the old recording contracts companies gave bands and would recoup back from record sales (keeping it simple here as a lot more involved in those contracts)
It’s not recouped
 
Interesting figures. Thanks for posting.
 
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