What Needs to Happen for Wisconsin to make the College Football Playoff?

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Da-news-now

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Heading into the final week of the regular season, the Wisconsin Badgers are still right in the thick of the playoff race. In the last College Football Playoff Ranking, they were ranked 7th. However, after Louisville’s shocking loss to Houston, the Badgers will likely climb to 6th.

They host Minnesota this Saturday, and a win (or a Nebraska loss to Iowa) would send Wisconsin to the Big Ten Championship game. However, while the Badgers are in control of their destiny for the Big Ten Championship, whether they control their fate for the College Football Playoff depends on who their Big Ten Championship Game opponent is.

Scenario One: Wisconsin beats Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game

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ANN ARBOR, MI – NOVEMBER 07: Jabrill Peppers #5 of the Michigan Wolverines runs in for a second quarter touchdown in front of Saquan Hampton #9 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on November 7, 2015 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

If Michigan beats Ohio State this Saturday, they win the Big Ten East and receive a spot in the Big Ten Championship game. The same goes for Ohio State if they beat Michigan while Michigan State beats Penn State. If Wisconsin beats either of those two teams in the Big Ten Championship game, they are in. Period. It doesn’t matter what happens in any other games. If Wisconsin wins the Big Ten and beats a top three Michigan/Ohio State in the process, they are playoff bound. Heck, if that happens, they would probably be a two or three seed and avoid Alabama in the first round.

Will Wisconsin make the Playoff in this scenario? YES

Scenario 2: Wisconsin beats Penn State in the Big Ten Championship


Where it gets more complicated is if Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Michigan State. In this scenario, which actually has the highest odds of happening, Penn State would win the Big Ten East since they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buckeyes. They would then face the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship. If Wisconsin wins that game, they still would need some outside help to make the playoff.

The reason for that is simple. Anything short of the sky falling, Alabama is in the playoff. Ohio State would also be in the playoff in that scenario. Even though the Badgers would be the Big Ten Champions, as much as it pains me to admit it, Ohio State has a vastly superior resume. They would have three top ten wins, including road wins against Oklahoma and Wisconsin. They also own a 59-point drubbing of Nebraska. A one-loss Ohio State team would be, and deserves to be, in the playoff.

That leaves four teams- Clemson, Washington, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, fighting for two playoff spots. If Clemson wins out, and they will be heavily favored in their two remaining games, they are in the playoff. Them losing to either rival South Carolina or in the ACC Championship game would eliminate the ACC, and would be best case scenario for the Badgers.

If Clemson does win out, the final spot would presumably go to Washington. I may disagree, but the committee currently has the Huskies ranked one spot ahead of the Badgers. If Wisconsin beats Penn State in the Big Ten Championship, and Washington beats either a Top 10 Colorado or USC team, it likely will not change. So Wisconsin fans need to hope that Washington State springs the home upset this Friday against their instate rival.

If Washington loses, then it would be between the Badgers and Oklahoma for the final playoff spot. In that case, the committee would have a very interesting decision to make that would have Wisconsin fans sweating until the final announcement.

Both teams have two losses. Wisconsin’s losses were closer, and can be considered “better losses”. But Oklahoma has the best win (at West Virginia), and the chance to add another top 15 win against Oklahoma State. Wisconsin is currently ranked higher, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Sooners leap frog them at some point. The Badgers would be at the mercy of the playoff committee, and I could honestly see it going either way.

Will Wisconsin make the playoff in this scenario?

  • If Washington and Clemson win out, NO.
  • If Washington or Clemson lose, COULD GO EITHER WAY
  • If two of Washington, Clemson, Oklahoma lose, YES

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The Badgers would be in the playoff for sure if the holding was called in this play.



This one play irks me more than any since the Fail Mary
 
eyecatcher said:
The Badgers would be in the playoff for sure if the holding was called in this play.



This one play irks me more than any since the Fail Mary
Click to expand...


The "non-catch" against Northwestern last year really stuck with me, and I've turned it into a fairly workable meme in Twitter

But yes, my dad called me from the game (had to take the boys home) to ask me how that looked on TV b/c in real time he said it looked like Watt got hooked and pulled down.

I told him I didn't think his eyes weren't that good.

But them not calling this hold, but calling the extremely tickey-tack holding on Volz at mid field going in for the chance to win is what really pissed me off.

I've also got an interesting potential outcome scenario for this game, if anyone want to hear it.
 
As we know, the game went to OT, and the Buckeyes scored on their possession. Wisconsin did not.

This theory is predicated on what would have happened had the Badgers scored on their turn with the ball.

If you weren't at the game, you might not have known, but immediately after Hornibrook gets tackled, and the refs blow the whistle, the PA guy comes on to announce that everyone in attendance needs to vacate the stadium due to severe weather moving in. No 5th Quarter, no on-field post game interviews. "Everyone please seek shelter immediately."

Had the score been tied at the end of one OT period, nobody is quite sure what would have happened next, as the weather would not have permitted play to resume until a little after 3 AM, some five hours after play was suspended.

(We had a few trees down in our neighborhood, lost power, and we're just across the lake from Downtown)

So it is believed that the game would have ultimately ended as a tie, because nobody who I've talked to, journalists, players, a coach, believes the NCAA would have kept Ohio State at the stadium for five hours and asked everyone to go back on the field just a few hours before dawn.

So there ya go.
 
All the "what if's" don't matter. The only issue is "who" wins the Big 10. If Michigan, OSU, or Wisconsin wins the title in the playoff game, that team will be going to the playoffs. If Penn State wins, there won't be a representative from the Big 10 this year. It's the only scenario that plays out, and the rest is just a bunch of hogwash.

Penn State beat OSU. Michigan beat Penn State. Michigan and OSU meet Saturday to decide the east. In the meantime, the Badgers need to beat Minnesota at Camp Randall Stadium. If Michigan wins Saturday, they go to the Big 10 Championship. If OSU beats them, PSU goes, with a win over Michigan State. IF MSU beats PSU, the winner of the Michigan/OSU game goes to the championship game.

No matter what, as long as it isn't PSU "winning" the Big 10 Championship game, the game winner will be in the playoffs. The people picking the teams will have to recognize that for Wisconsin, two close ones against the #2 & #3 teams in the nation is a far better feat than getting blown up by an unranked team like Washington was, by USC, and even on Washington's home turf.

This whole thing shouldn't be as difficult as they make it sound.
 
I'm just disappointed I won't see the game against MN because it is on the B1G 10 Network. :(
 
I'm going to record it. We'll be gone all day. Won't get home until about 4:30 PM. I can watch it then. I want that axe staying in Madison! To be honest, I kind of like skipping through the commercials.
 
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