M
Mark Eckel
Guest
By BOB McGINN
The loss of Aaron Rodgers has caused several oddsmakers to make radical changes in the Green Bay-New Orleans game Sunday at Lambeau Field.
The Rodgers Effect has prompted a seismic alteration of 12 points.
Footballlocks.com planned to open the Packers at minus-6 ½ points. After Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone Sunday in Minnesota that might end his season, footballlocks.com made the drastic change to the Packers plus-5 ½.
Bovada.lv was ready to favor Green Bay by 6. It opened with New Orleans by 6.
The Westgate SuperBook saw the matchup both before and after much like footballlocks.com.
Last week, Bovada.lv had the Packers as the NFC favorite at 5-1, trailing only the AFC favorite New England Patriots (9-2) as Super Bowl favorites. Now, the Packers’ odds have crashed to 16-1.
These are the longest odds the Packers have faced at Lambeau Field since the 2011 finale against Detroit. With Rodgers inactive because Green Bay had clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs, the Packers were a 6 ½-point underdog behind Matt Flynn. They won, 45-41.
The last time the Packers (4-2) were an underdog by 5 ½ points or more at Lambeau Field with either Brett Favre or Rodgers at quarterback was Game 3 of the 2007 season. With Favre at the controls, the Packers were a 5 ½-point underdog against San Diego but won, 31-24.
New Orleans (3-2) enters the game having won its last three games by the score of 106-51. Their three victims – Carolina, Miami and Detroit – own a combined record of 10-7. The Carolina and Miami games were on the road.
“They are good,” an NFL executive in personnel said of the Saints, Tuesday. “The addition of (Terron) Armstead really helped their offensive line. They can protect Drew Brees and run the football, and they will run the football.”
The personnel man called it for New Orleans, 24-17. He envisions a scenario in which the Saints’ defense, coordinated by Dennis Allen, pressures quarterback Brett Hundley in his first start.
“I think Dennis Allen will throw some new wrinkles at the young quarterback,” the scout said. “Hundley’s just a guy. They’re trying to replace the best player in the league with a guy.
“I don’t think Green Bay will be able to run the football effectively against that front. They can’t transform themselves into a running team.”
From 2014-’16, the Saints’ defense ranked 31st, 31st and 27th in yards allowed and 28th, 32nd and 31st in points allowed. New Orleans had five takeaways in its 52-38 victory over the Lions, including a team-record three defensive touchdowns.
“All those turnovers they got last week was a little bit of a freak of nature,” another NFL executive said. “The Saints’ defense, obviously, is playing a little bit better. They’ve got some people up front who can get after you a little bit. They have average linebackers and an average secondary.
“I’ve got to assume the Packers are going to see a pretty heavy dose of blitzing this week.”
Brees had his 55-game streak with 200 or more passing yards end Sunday when he threw for just 186. For a change, the Saints didn’t need an aerial barrage because they rushed for 193 yards.
“On paper, you’d say they’re pretty good on offense,” said one scout. “They’ve got backs, good enough (wide) receivers, good enough tight ends and a legitimate Hall of Fame quarterback.”
Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy (128-71-1, .643) and New Orleans’ Sean Payton (103-72, .589) each were hired in 2006. Payton sat out 2012 because of suspension.
In their four meetings, Payton is 3-1 against McCarthy in shootouts with an average score of 40.8 for New Orleans and 30.3 for Green Bay.
“Can Green Bay score?” one executive said. “I think they eventually will get it going. I just don’t know how long it’ll take before that quarterback and everybody gets in sync and become productive.
“I know the Saints can score. When that quarterback gets going I know they can score. I see it 27-14, Saints.”
OFFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Pete Carmichael (ninth year).
Key assistants – Dan Campbell, assistant head coach/tight ends; Curtis Johnson, senior offensive assistant/wide receivers; Joe Lombardi, quarterbacks.
Notes: Carmichael has the coordinator’s title but coach Sean Payton sets the game plan and calls the plays. The Saints are comfortable with multiple tight ends, hurry-up and just about every formation imaginable. Payton always has loved the screen game. He also inserts a sixth offensive lineman in a “heavy” package, and then likes to throw from it. The Saints’ run rate is 41%. They rank third in giveaways with three after having had not a single one in the first five games. They also rank first in fewest sacks allowed (four), fourth in points (24.2) and seventh in yards (372.2).
What scouts said: “(Sean) Payton and (Drew) Brees kind of have their own thing going. They’re on a different level than most people. They’re on the same page. Basically, they just want to spread you out. They also like to beat you with slants and see what guys can do after the catch.” … “They’ve got tight ends that are blockers. He (Payton) must think that if really wants to run the ball, why not go with an extra lineman and get a real blocker?” … “It has helped Payton that he’s always had a pretty good quarterback. But he’s always had a lot of respect as a play-caller and as an offensive mind.” … “They do a lot of rhythm passing. They’ve got to be able to run the ball and then take the three-step quick shots, which is what they want to do. They throw (to spots).”
WIDE RECEIVERS
Starters – Michael Thomas (6-3, 212, 4.56 40-yard dash before the 2016 draft); Ted Ginn (5-11, 180, 4.35).
Key backups – Willie Snead (5-11, 195, 4.61); Brandon Coleman (6-6, 225, 4.56).
Notes: Thomas, a second-round draft choice in 2016, had 92 receptions and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Ginn came from Carolina on the opening day of free agency in March for $11 million over three years. Snead, a 12-game starter in 2015-’16 with 141 receptions, was suspended for the first three games this season (DUI).
What scouts said: “Michael Thomas is a legitimate target and has been productive. Good strength. He didn’t always have great ball skills but he has worked on it. Not a natural hands catcher. He’s been a playmaker. He jumped off the page as a rookie and made his mark. I don’t know if that’s good or bad (that Keyshawn Johnson is his uncle). He’s big and tough. Will take his shots as a blocker.” … “Ted has bounced around his whole career. His No. 1 attribute really is his speed. He’s as fast as anybody. For whatever reason he has been able to retain his speed. He still can run away from defenders. He’ll beat you with the vertical game and with long over routes because he’s got the speed to cross the field. Always had inconsistent hands. More of a body-catcher.” … “Snead is a quick guy. Gutsy. Better off in the slot. He’ll go get the ball. He has made some acrobatic catches. This guy came out of nowhere. There was never anything special about him (at Ball State). He just caught the ball when Brees put it on him. He’s the classic overachiever.” … “I never thought much of Coleman other than he was developmental height-weight-speed. Never anything special.”
TIGHT ENDS
Starter – Coby Fleener (6-6, 251, 4.52).
Key backups – Josh Hill (6-5, 250, 4.68); Michael Hoomanawanui (6-3 ½, 265, 4.78).
Notes: Fleener, a former Colt, played just 18 snaps Sunday against Detroit compared to Hill’s 48 and Hoomanawanui’s 41. Fleener leads the threesome with 11 receptions for an 11.7 average and two TDs.
What scouts said: “I’m not exactly sure what Josh Hill’s specialty is. He’s just a solid receiving tight end. Good enough size. He’s not a better route runner than Fleener. Nothing special there. Solid blocker with adequate hands.” … “At least when Fleener’s in there you’ll know he’ll be a receiving tight end. He’s got a specialty.” … “Hoomanawanui is a blocker who gets some dump-offs here and there. He’s a big, wide body who was meant to block and has solid hands. He’s bounced around a couple different places.”
OFFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LT Terron Armstead (6-4 ½, 304, 4.71); LG Andrus Peat (6-7, 316, 5.21); C Max Unger (6-4 ½, 305, 5.29); RG Larry Warford (6-3, 329, 5.59); RT Ryan Ramczyk (6-5 ½, 314, 5.20).
Key backups – G-T Senio Kelemete (6-3 ½, 300, 5.41); C Josh LeRibeus (6-3 1/2, 315, 5.33).
Notes: Armstead returned against Detroit after recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. A third-round pick in 2013, he’s a four-year starter. Peat, the 13th pick in ’15, and Ramczyk each made two starts at left tackle during Armstead’s absence. Ramczyk was the 32nd pick in April after playing at Stevens Point Area High School, UW-Stevens Point and Wisconsin. Unger has made 103 starts for Seattle and New Orleans. Warford arrived March 9 as a free agent from the Lions for $34 million over four years ($17M guaranteed). Ramczyk became a full-fledged starter when RT Zach Strief blew out his knee in Game 4.
What scouts said: “I’d rank them in this order: Armstead, Unger, Warford, Peat and Ramczyk. Ramczyk will be better but he’s just coming along.” … ”The most important thing is they’ve got Armstead back. I thought that’d be more of a longer-term injury. He’s not a big, powerful guy. He does have good enough strength and good enough movement. He can keep his feet and body in front of the defender. He can mirror and match to protect the quarterback’s blind side. The natural football stuff wasn’t there (when he left Arkansas-Pine Bluff in 2013). He’s a good athlete.” … “Peat’s dad (Todd) played in the league (as a guard). He’s kind of a unique specimen. Not really athletic but he’s huge. Most people thought he’d be a natural right tackle. Inside, he’s a smart kid. Does a good job helping the center or the tackle. Good at picking up stunts. As big as he is he’s not as tough or powerful as you would think. He doesn’t play to that body type. If you look at him you’d think he body-slams people, especially if you got him angry. But he seems like a nice kid who plays nice sometimes.” … “Unger has had injuries most of his career, especially in Seattle. He has had to put on weight and strength over the years. But talk about a smart guy. He’ll take some of the pressure off the quarterback as far as making line checks. He’s a finesse player. If you’ve got a big guy on his head he’s going to struggle a little with anchor. Quick, good first step, can wall guys off, can slide up to the second level. Just not a strong or powerful guy. Guys can grab him and run him back. He’s all angles, sliding up and cutting off.” … “Warford is thicker but he actually moves fairly well when you get him going. He’s not a bad athlete. Just a shorter, strong guy. He’ll get his hands on you. Hold you. Lock you up. He’s a phone-booth guy. His thing is run blocking. If he gets his hands on you he can kind of run you and leg-drive you. If you’ve got an athletic guy with spin moves and all that he’s not going to be real adept at staying in front of you.” … “I don’t think they wanted to play Ramczyk immediately but the plan was for him to become the starter there (right tackle). He’s not as tall as Strief. He’s not a power blocker, by any means. He uses his arm length to flip his hips and seal.” … “Ramczyk looked OK to me. He did his job.” … “Peat is a big body. Armstead protects the blind side.”
QUARTERBACKS
Starter – Drew Brees (6-0, 209, 4.85).
Backups – Chase Daniel (6-0, 225, 4.79); Taysom Hill (6-2, 221, 4.45).
Notes: Brees, 38, was drafted in the second round (32nd pick) by San Diego in ’01. His career record is 134-103. Currently, his passer rating of 103.2 ranks fifth. Daniel returned to the Saints in March. He has started two games in nine seasons. Claimed off Green Bay waivers Sept. 3, Hill has been inactive all five games.
What scouts said: “Amazing. That guy has played forever. Brees can make every throw and is as accurate as anybody. If there is a knock it’s that he’s lost a little bit of the arm strength to throw those deep outs and deep balls down the field. With him losing some of that maybe he’s not in the superstar, top four or five category. Thing he still does well is slide well in the pocket. He can find a throwing lane and get the ball out. He does get up on his toes to throw the ball.” … “He used to be a pretty good athlete. I don’t think he feels good about his durability. I don’t think running is part of his diet.” … “Chase Daniels isn’t much bigger. He may be shorter. He’s probably really good in the meeting room. He’s a smart guy with a little cocky to him. He gets the ball out quickly. He will only run out of necessity. It’s not that he can’t run. He actually has pretty good mobility.”
RUNNING BACKS
Starters – RB Mark Ingram (5-9, 215, 4.58); FB Zach Line (6-0 ½, 233, 4.77).
Key backups – RB Alvin Kamara (5-10, 215, 4.59).
Notes: Ingram played 47 snaps and Kamara played 30 against Detroit, which was five days after the Saints traded Adrian Peterson to Arizona for a conditional sixth-round draft choice. Kamara was a third-round pick from Tennessee. He has 25 carries and 24 receptions. Line took over for former Packers FB John Kuhn, who underwent biceps surgery Oct. 3 after being injured in practice in London.
What scouts said: “I like Ingram. He has that compact size people like. Not leggy. Good strength upper and lower (body). He can be an every-down back. He’s got good hands on swing passes and gives you good run after the catch. He’s got better speed than you think. Everybody would like to have a running back like that. He’s not a superstar, but you can count on him being productive.” … “Kamara adds a different element. He’s got good enough size, good speed and he really is athletic. Eventually, he could replace the other guy. Right now, they’re a good combo. I wouldn’t say thunder and lightning but pretty close to that. Kamara has outright speed. His ability to split as a receiver made ‘AP’ (Adrian Peterson) expendable. They both have good hands and ‘AP’ doesn’t have good hands.” … “Kamara is a dangerous third-down back with the skill to run the football.” … “Nothing special about Line. Typical fullback with minimal carries. Solid blocker, decent receiver.”
DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Dennis Allen (second year).
Key assistants – Aaron Glenn, secondary; Mike Nolan, linebackers.
Notes: Allen was one of Payton’s assistants from 2006-’10, assisting with the defensive line for two seasons before heading up the secondary for three. After one season as coordinator in Denver, he was head coach in Oakland for 2 ½ seasons (8-28 record). He became coordinator in New Orleans late in the ’15 season. A disciple of Gregg Williams, Allen runs the 4-3 as his base front, a 3-2 on passing downs and enjoys blitzing. The Saints rank tied for ninth in takeaways (nine), 21st in points (19.3) and 26th in yards (369.2).
What scouts said: “Allen likes to mix it up. They’ll play a lot of press-man but will mix in some Cover 2 with it. He’s a 4-3, Cover 1 type guy. He’ll play some ‘quarters’ in the red zone.” … “He’ll heat it up every now and then. They’ll bring defensive backs more than linebackers.” … “They play a lot of nickel and dime.” … “They do a good job of batting the ball down on their pressures. If they can’t get to him they do a good job getting their hands up. They seem to get a lot of batted balls.”
DEFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LE Cameron Jordan (6-4, 287, 4.75); NT Tyeler Davison (6-1 ½, 309, 5.14); 3-technique Sheldon Rankins (6-1, 305, 5.00); RE Alex Okafor (6-4 ½, 261, 4.91).
Key backups – DE Trey Hendrickson (6-4, 270, 4.62); DE Hau’oli Kikaha (6-2 ½, 246, 4.92); DT David Onyemata (6-3, 300, 5.07).
Notes: Jordan, with a team-high five sacks, had an impressive showing against the Lions. Rankins was the 12th pick in ’16. Okafor had 13 ½ sacks for the Cardinals from 2013-’16 before joining the Saints March 13 for $2 million over one year. Davison, a fifth-round pick in ’15, has long arms (34 inches), huge hands (10 ¾ inches), top strength (32 reps on the bench press) and a score of 28 on the Wonderlic intelligence test.
What scouts said: “Jordan is athletic enough to play end and tough enough to go down inside. Good get-off. Good pass rusher. Plays with good balance and body control. He’s big and strong enough to be a base end but he’s athletic enough to rush the passer. He once said he always wanted to rush the passer and play the run on the way to the quarterback. I remember having that conversation with him.” … “Okafor may have found a little bit of a home. When he was in Arizona they played a 3-4, and he never really was a fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s a better fit here as a D-end. He’s athletic enough to rush the passer and has enough strength to play the run. Good, solid player.” … “Hendrickson is a pretty good athlete. They’re obviously betting on the come with him coming from that program (Florida Atlantic). Right now he’s not much more than a developmental-rotation guy. Pretty good effort player.” … “Kikaha has had a number of (ACL) injuries. He’s a high-motor nickel pass rusher. He’s a hands fighter. It’s all about his hand movement.” … “Best thing I can say about Rankins right now is he has his weight under control and can move much better. For a big guy he has pretty good hand quickness.” … “There’s a little bit of rawness with Davison. He reminds me of a WWF wrestler. The long hair, all that stuff. He’s got good strength and he plays hard. Put together pretty good. Just kind of learning schemes.” … “Onyemata looks the part. Flashes athleticism. There hasn’t been much (production) just yet and I don’t think there will be much this year.” … “Jordan is the best. Then Rankins and Okafor.”
LINEBACKERS
Starters – SLB A.J. Klein (6-1, 240, 4.72); MLB Manti Te’o (6-1 ½, 243, 4.81); WLB Craig Robertson (6-1, 234, NA).
Key backup – LB Gerald Hodges (6-1, 236, 4.73).
Notes: WLB starter Alex Anzalone suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Game 4 and was replaced by Robertson, a former Brown who started 15 games for the Saints in ’15. Klein, a former Panther, played in high school at Kimberly, Wis.
What scouts said: “Interesting bunch of linebackers. You look at them and you say all of them should be inside linebackers. I like A.J. Klein. He’s one of those dependable guys who knows his limitations and is a try-hard guy. Much better as a run defender than a pass defender.” … “Robertson played inside in Cleveland. Slightly undersized but a smart guy. He doesn’t move real well. Little tight in the hips but he’s got good strength and plays with pretty good effort. He’d be a good fourth or fifth type linebacker. You wouldn’t see him as your starter.” … “(Alex) Anzalone was an athlete. He was different. He could run.” … “You wouldn’t want Te’o on the field in nickel and dime even though he’s a quick study. He understands formations and tendencies really well. Steady guy. He has straight-line speed. He doesn’t have coverage speed and change of direction.”
SECONDARY
Starters – LC Ken Crawley (6-0, 180, 4.44); RC Marshon Lattimore (6-0, 192, 4.36); SS Kenny Vaccaro (6-0, 214, 4.61); FS Marcus Williams (6-0 ½, 195, 202).
Key backups – S Vonn Bell (5-11, 205, 4.52); CB P.J. Williams (6-0, 196, 4.49); S Rafael Bush (5-10, 203, 4.48); S Chris Banjo 5-10, 207, 4.47).
Notes: Crawley, an undrafted free agent in 2016, has moved ahead of P.J. Williams, a third-round pick in ’15. He’s starting because Delvin Breaux remains on injured reserve with a broken fibula. Breaux could return in November. Lattimore was the 11th pick in April. Marcus Williams, another rookie, was drafted in the second round. Against Detroit, Vaccaro played almost the entire game in the slot and Bell then joined Marcus Williams deep. Bush was the dime back.
What scouts said: “Lattimore should be pretty good. He’ll challenge you in press. He’s a little bit cheap. He’ll try to throw an extra slap at a receiver or take a shot here or there. He likes to come across as this tough, aggressive corner that if I get my hands on you I’ll beat up on you. He has good enough speed to turn and run with guys out of press-man.” … “Crawley wore out his welcome at Colorado. He was an after-thought in New Orleans last year but they had injuries and he ended up playing fairly well for them (five starts). Much better suited to be a nickel or dime. Thin-framed but can run and is aggressive. Not terribly instinctive. Plays hard. I’m pretty sure he fancies himself as a cover corner, not a do-the-dirty-work type.” … “Crawley is just OK. Lattimore is the better of the two.” … “Vaccaro does run well and is a good athlete. He’s more a hitter. I think the reason they put him up close like that is they like to blitz him.” … “Vaccaro is more of a downhill run player. He’s very tough. He covers OK, not great.” … “P.J. Williams isn’t a tough guy.” … “Marcus Williams is pretty athletic and will take his shots at you. He’s a good complement to Vaccaro. Marcus runs better than Vaccaro and is more of a centerfielder. Vaccaro is more of an enforcer.” … “Bell is a finesse player. He’s not a big hitter back there. He’s back there more or less (to defend) the pass.” … “Bush is kind of the ideal dime type defensive back. Playing in passing situations and in coverage. He’s smart and can get everybody lined up.”
SPECIAL TEAMS
Coordinator – Bradford Banta (first year).
Personnel – K Wil Lutz (5-11, 184); P Thomas Morstead (6-4, 235); LS Zach Wood (6-3, 255); PR Ted Ginn; KOR Alvin Kamara.
Notes: Banta took over in January after Payton fired Greg McMahon, who was part of his first staff in 2006. Banta, a long snapper in the NFL from 1994-’04, had served as an assistant coach in Washington and Detroit. Lutz, a second-year free agent from Georgia State, is attempting to halt what has been a revolving door for Saints’ kickers since John Carney a decade ago. A two-year regular, he is 11 of 14 on field goals and 16 of 16 on extra points. Morstead, a nine-year regular, is tied for 21st in net average (40.5 yards). Ginn, with a 7.5 average in eight returns, has seven returns for touchdowns in 11 seasons. Kamara is averaging 24.0 in five returns. Kick coverage has been poor. Former Packers S Chris Banjo led the special teams in snaps (34) Sunday against Detroit.
What scouts said: “Lutz is fairly accurate. He doesn’t have a particularly big leg on kickoffs. Three, four yards deep. I think he’s solid. They’ve had issues there. I think they’ve got to feel pretty good about where they are with that position. They’ve gone through some kickers.” … “What you like about Morstead is he gets the ball off quick and has good hang time and good directional.” … “Don’t give Ted Ginn a crease, man. He’s not a shake-and-bake dude but he’ll flat out-run you. Ted might drop it or he might score.” … “Kamara has good speed and good strength.”
The post Scouting the New Orleans Saints: Odds don’t favor the Packers appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.
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The loss of Aaron Rodgers has caused several oddsmakers to make radical changes in the Green Bay-New Orleans game Sunday at Lambeau Field.
The Rodgers Effect has prompted a seismic alteration of 12 points.
Footballlocks.com planned to open the Packers at minus-6 ½ points. After Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone Sunday in Minnesota that might end his season, footballlocks.com made the drastic change to the Packers plus-5 ½.
Bovada.lv was ready to favor Green Bay by 6. It opened with New Orleans by 6.
The Westgate SuperBook saw the matchup both before and after much like footballlocks.com.
Last week, Bovada.lv had the Packers as the NFC favorite at 5-1, trailing only the AFC favorite New England Patriots (9-2) as Super Bowl favorites. Now, the Packers’ odds have crashed to 16-1.
These are the longest odds the Packers have faced at Lambeau Field since the 2011 finale against Detroit. With Rodgers inactive because Green Bay had clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs, the Packers were a 6 ½-point underdog behind Matt Flynn. They won, 45-41.
The last time the Packers (4-2) were an underdog by 5 ½ points or more at Lambeau Field with either Brett Favre or Rodgers at quarterback was Game 3 of the 2007 season. With Favre at the controls, the Packers were a 5 ½-point underdog against San Diego but won, 31-24.
New Orleans (3-2) enters the game having won its last three games by the score of 106-51. Their three victims – Carolina, Miami and Detroit – own a combined record of 10-7. The Carolina and Miami games were on the road.
“They are good,” an NFL executive in personnel said of the Saints, Tuesday. “The addition of (Terron) Armstead really helped their offensive line. They can protect Drew Brees and run the football, and they will run the football.”
The personnel man called it for New Orleans, 24-17. He envisions a scenario in which the Saints’ defense, coordinated by Dennis Allen, pressures quarterback Brett Hundley in his first start.
“I think Dennis Allen will throw some new wrinkles at the young quarterback,” the scout said. “Hundley’s just a guy. They’re trying to replace the best player in the league with a guy.
“I don’t think Green Bay will be able to run the football effectively against that front. They can’t transform themselves into a running team.”
From 2014-’16, the Saints’ defense ranked 31st, 31st and 27th in yards allowed and 28th, 32nd and 31st in points allowed. New Orleans had five takeaways in its 52-38 victory over the Lions, including a team-record three defensive touchdowns.
“All those turnovers they got last week was a little bit of a freak of nature,” another NFL executive said. “The Saints’ defense, obviously, is playing a little bit better. They’ve got some people up front who can get after you a little bit. They have average linebackers and an average secondary.
“I’ve got to assume the Packers are going to see a pretty heavy dose of blitzing this week.”
Brees had his 55-game streak with 200 or more passing yards end Sunday when he threw for just 186. For a change, the Saints didn’t need an aerial barrage because they rushed for 193 yards.
“On paper, you’d say they’re pretty good on offense,” said one scout. “They’ve got backs, good enough (wide) receivers, good enough tight ends and a legitimate Hall of Fame quarterback.”
Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy (128-71-1, .643) and New Orleans’ Sean Payton (103-72, .589) each were hired in 2006. Payton sat out 2012 because of suspension.
In their four meetings, Payton is 3-1 against McCarthy in shootouts with an average score of 40.8 for New Orleans and 30.3 for Green Bay.
“Can Green Bay score?” one executive said. “I think they eventually will get it going. I just don’t know how long it’ll take before that quarterback and everybody gets in sync and become productive.
“I know the Saints can score. When that quarterback gets going I know they can score. I see it 27-14, Saints.”
OFFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Pete Carmichael (ninth year).
Key assistants – Dan Campbell, assistant head coach/tight ends; Curtis Johnson, senior offensive assistant/wide receivers; Joe Lombardi, quarterbacks.
Notes: Carmichael has the coordinator’s title but coach Sean Payton sets the game plan and calls the plays. The Saints are comfortable with multiple tight ends, hurry-up and just about every formation imaginable. Payton always has loved the screen game. He also inserts a sixth offensive lineman in a “heavy” package, and then likes to throw from it. The Saints’ run rate is 41%. They rank third in giveaways with three after having had not a single one in the first five games. They also rank first in fewest sacks allowed (four), fourth in points (24.2) and seventh in yards (372.2).
What scouts said: “(Sean) Payton and (Drew) Brees kind of have their own thing going. They’re on a different level than most people. They’re on the same page. Basically, they just want to spread you out. They also like to beat you with slants and see what guys can do after the catch.” … “They’ve got tight ends that are blockers. He (Payton) must think that if really wants to run the ball, why not go with an extra lineman and get a real blocker?” … “It has helped Payton that he’s always had a pretty good quarterback. But he’s always had a lot of respect as a play-caller and as an offensive mind.” … “They do a lot of rhythm passing. They’ve got to be able to run the ball and then take the three-step quick shots, which is what they want to do. They throw (to spots).”
WIDE RECEIVERS
Starters – Michael Thomas (6-3, 212, 4.56 40-yard dash before the 2016 draft); Ted Ginn (5-11, 180, 4.35).
Key backups – Willie Snead (5-11, 195, 4.61); Brandon Coleman (6-6, 225, 4.56).
Notes: Thomas, a second-round draft choice in 2016, had 92 receptions and nine touchdowns as a rookie. Ginn came from Carolina on the opening day of free agency in March for $11 million over three years. Snead, a 12-game starter in 2015-’16 with 141 receptions, was suspended for the first three games this season (DUI).
What scouts said: “Michael Thomas is a legitimate target and has been productive. Good strength. He didn’t always have great ball skills but he has worked on it. Not a natural hands catcher. He’s been a playmaker. He jumped off the page as a rookie and made his mark. I don’t know if that’s good or bad (that Keyshawn Johnson is his uncle). He’s big and tough. Will take his shots as a blocker.” … “Ted has bounced around his whole career. His No. 1 attribute really is his speed. He’s as fast as anybody. For whatever reason he has been able to retain his speed. He still can run away from defenders. He’ll beat you with the vertical game and with long over routes because he’s got the speed to cross the field. Always had inconsistent hands. More of a body-catcher.” … “Snead is a quick guy. Gutsy. Better off in the slot. He’ll go get the ball. He has made some acrobatic catches. This guy came out of nowhere. There was never anything special about him (at Ball State). He just caught the ball when Brees put it on him. He’s the classic overachiever.” … “I never thought much of Coleman other than he was developmental height-weight-speed. Never anything special.”
TIGHT ENDS
Starter – Coby Fleener (6-6, 251, 4.52).
Key backups – Josh Hill (6-5, 250, 4.68); Michael Hoomanawanui (6-3 ½, 265, 4.78).
Notes: Fleener, a former Colt, played just 18 snaps Sunday against Detroit compared to Hill’s 48 and Hoomanawanui’s 41. Fleener leads the threesome with 11 receptions for an 11.7 average and two TDs.
What scouts said: “I’m not exactly sure what Josh Hill’s specialty is. He’s just a solid receiving tight end. Good enough size. He’s not a better route runner than Fleener. Nothing special there. Solid blocker with adequate hands.” … “At least when Fleener’s in there you’ll know he’ll be a receiving tight end. He’s got a specialty.” … “Hoomanawanui is a blocker who gets some dump-offs here and there. He’s a big, wide body who was meant to block and has solid hands. He’s bounced around a couple different places.”
OFFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LT Terron Armstead (6-4 ½, 304, 4.71); LG Andrus Peat (6-7, 316, 5.21); C Max Unger (6-4 ½, 305, 5.29); RG Larry Warford (6-3, 329, 5.59); RT Ryan Ramczyk (6-5 ½, 314, 5.20).
Key backups – G-T Senio Kelemete (6-3 ½, 300, 5.41); C Josh LeRibeus (6-3 1/2, 315, 5.33).
Notes: Armstead returned against Detroit after recovering from off-season shoulder surgery. A third-round pick in 2013, he’s a four-year starter. Peat, the 13th pick in ’15, and Ramczyk each made two starts at left tackle during Armstead’s absence. Ramczyk was the 32nd pick in April after playing at Stevens Point Area High School, UW-Stevens Point and Wisconsin. Unger has made 103 starts for Seattle and New Orleans. Warford arrived March 9 as a free agent from the Lions for $34 million over four years ($17M guaranteed). Ramczyk became a full-fledged starter when RT Zach Strief blew out his knee in Game 4.
What scouts said: “I’d rank them in this order: Armstead, Unger, Warford, Peat and Ramczyk. Ramczyk will be better but he’s just coming along.” … ”The most important thing is they’ve got Armstead back. I thought that’d be more of a longer-term injury. He’s not a big, powerful guy. He does have good enough strength and good enough movement. He can keep his feet and body in front of the defender. He can mirror and match to protect the quarterback’s blind side. The natural football stuff wasn’t there (when he left Arkansas-Pine Bluff in 2013). He’s a good athlete.” … “Peat’s dad (Todd) played in the league (as a guard). He’s kind of a unique specimen. Not really athletic but he’s huge. Most people thought he’d be a natural right tackle. Inside, he’s a smart kid. Does a good job helping the center or the tackle. Good at picking up stunts. As big as he is he’s not as tough or powerful as you would think. He doesn’t play to that body type. If you look at him you’d think he body-slams people, especially if you got him angry. But he seems like a nice kid who plays nice sometimes.” … “Unger has had injuries most of his career, especially in Seattle. He has had to put on weight and strength over the years. But talk about a smart guy. He’ll take some of the pressure off the quarterback as far as making line checks. He’s a finesse player. If you’ve got a big guy on his head he’s going to struggle a little with anchor. Quick, good first step, can wall guys off, can slide up to the second level. Just not a strong or powerful guy. Guys can grab him and run him back. He’s all angles, sliding up and cutting off.” … “Warford is thicker but he actually moves fairly well when you get him going. He’s not a bad athlete. Just a shorter, strong guy. He’ll get his hands on you. Hold you. Lock you up. He’s a phone-booth guy. His thing is run blocking. If he gets his hands on you he can kind of run you and leg-drive you. If you’ve got an athletic guy with spin moves and all that he’s not going to be real adept at staying in front of you.” … “I don’t think they wanted to play Ramczyk immediately but the plan was for him to become the starter there (right tackle). He’s not as tall as Strief. He’s not a power blocker, by any means. He uses his arm length to flip his hips and seal.” … “Ramczyk looked OK to me. He did his job.” … “Peat is a big body. Armstead protects the blind side.”
QUARTERBACKS
Starter – Drew Brees (6-0, 209, 4.85).
Backups – Chase Daniel (6-0, 225, 4.79); Taysom Hill (6-2, 221, 4.45).
Notes: Brees, 38, was drafted in the second round (32nd pick) by San Diego in ’01. His career record is 134-103. Currently, his passer rating of 103.2 ranks fifth. Daniel returned to the Saints in March. He has started two games in nine seasons. Claimed off Green Bay waivers Sept. 3, Hill has been inactive all five games.
What scouts said: “Amazing. That guy has played forever. Brees can make every throw and is as accurate as anybody. If there is a knock it’s that he’s lost a little bit of the arm strength to throw those deep outs and deep balls down the field. With him losing some of that maybe he’s not in the superstar, top four or five category. Thing he still does well is slide well in the pocket. He can find a throwing lane and get the ball out. He does get up on his toes to throw the ball.” … “He used to be a pretty good athlete. I don’t think he feels good about his durability. I don’t think running is part of his diet.” … “Chase Daniels isn’t much bigger. He may be shorter. He’s probably really good in the meeting room. He’s a smart guy with a little cocky to him. He gets the ball out quickly. He will only run out of necessity. It’s not that he can’t run. He actually has pretty good mobility.”
RUNNING BACKS
Starters – RB Mark Ingram (5-9, 215, 4.58); FB Zach Line (6-0 ½, 233, 4.77).
Key backups – RB Alvin Kamara (5-10, 215, 4.59).
Notes: Ingram played 47 snaps and Kamara played 30 against Detroit, which was five days after the Saints traded Adrian Peterson to Arizona for a conditional sixth-round draft choice. Kamara was a third-round pick from Tennessee. He has 25 carries and 24 receptions. Line took over for former Packers FB John Kuhn, who underwent biceps surgery Oct. 3 after being injured in practice in London.
What scouts said: “I like Ingram. He has that compact size people like. Not leggy. Good strength upper and lower (body). He can be an every-down back. He’s got good hands on swing passes and gives you good run after the catch. He’s got better speed than you think. Everybody would like to have a running back like that. He’s not a superstar, but you can count on him being productive.” … “Kamara adds a different element. He’s got good enough size, good speed and he really is athletic. Eventually, he could replace the other guy. Right now, they’re a good combo. I wouldn’t say thunder and lightning but pretty close to that. Kamara has outright speed. His ability to split as a receiver made ‘AP’ (Adrian Peterson) expendable. They both have good hands and ‘AP’ doesn’t have good hands.” … “Kamara is a dangerous third-down back with the skill to run the football.” … “Nothing special about Line. Typical fullback with minimal carries. Solid blocker, decent receiver.”
DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Dennis Allen (second year).
Key assistants – Aaron Glenn, secondary; Mike Nolan, linebackers.
Notes: Allen was one of Payton’s assistants from 2006-’10, assisting with the defensive line for two seasons before heading up the secondary for three. After one season as coordinator in Denver, he was head coach in Oakland for 2 ½ seasons (8-28 record). He became coordinator in New Orleans late in the ’15 season. A disciple of Gregg Williams, Allen runs the 4-3 as his base front, a 3-2 on passing downs and enjoys blitzing. The Saints rank tied for ninth in takeaways (nine), 21st in points (19.3) and 26th in yards (369.2).
What scouts said: “Allen likes to mix it up. They’ll play a lot of press-man but will mix in some Cover 2 with it. He’s a 4-3, Cover 1 type guy. He’ll play some ‘quarters’ in the red zone.” … “He’ll heat it up every now and then. They’ll bring defensive backs more than linebackers.” … “They play a lot of nickel and dime.” … “They do a good job of batting the ball down on their pressures. If they can’t get to him they do a good job getting their hands up. They seem to get a lot of batted balls.”
DEFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LE Cameron Jordan (6-4, 287, 4.75); NT Tyeler Davison (6-1 ½, 309, 5.14); 3-technique Sheldon Rankins (6-1, 305, 5.00); RE Alex Okafor (6-4 ½, 261, 4.91).
Key backups – DE Trey Hendrickson (6-4, 270, 4.62); DE Hau’oli Kikaha (6-2 ½, 246, 4.92); DT David Onyemata (6-3, 300, 5.07).
Notes: Jordan, with a team-high five sacks, had an impressive showing against the Lions. Rankins was the 12th pick in ’16. Okafor had 13 ½ sacks for the Cardinals from 2013-’16 before joining the Saints March 13 for $2 million over one year. Davison, a fifth-round pick in ’15, has long arms (34 inches), huge hands (10 ¾ inches), top strength (32 reps on the bench press) and a score of 28 on the Wonderlic intelligence test.
What scouts said: “Jordan is athletic enough to play end and tough enough to go down inside. Good get-off. Good pass rusher. Plays with good balance and body control. He’s big and strong enough to be a base end but he’s athletic enough to rush the passer. He once said he always wanted to rush the passer and play the run on the way to the quarterback. I remember having that conversation with him.” … “Okafor may have found a little bit of a home. When he was in Arizona they played a 3-4, and he never really was a fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s a better fit here as a D-end. He’s athletic enough to rush the passer and has enough strength to play the run. Good, solid player.” … “Hendrickson is a pretty good athlete. They’re obviously betting on the come with him coming from that program (Florida Atlantic). Right now he’s not much more than a developmental-rotation guy. Pretty good effort player.” … “Kikaha has had a number of (ACL) injuries. He’s a high-motor nickel pass rusher. He’s a hands fighter. It’s all about his hand movement.” … “Best thing I can say about Rankins right now is he has his weight under control and can move much better. For a big guy he has pretty good hand quickness.” … “There’s a little bit of rawness with Davison. He reminds me of a WWF wrestler. The long hair, all that stuff. He’s got good strength and he plays hard. Put together pretty good. Just kind of learning schemes.” … “Onyemata looks the part. Flashes athleticism. There hasn’t been much (production) just yet and I don’t think there will be much this year.” … “Jordan is the best. Then Rankins and Okafor.”
LINEBACKERS
Starters – SLB A.J. Klein (6-1, 240, 4.72); MLB Manti Te’o (6-1 ½, 243, 4.81); WLB Craig Robertson (6-1, 234, NA).
Key backup – LB Gerald Hodges (6-1, 236, 4.73).
Notes: WLB starter Alex Anzalone suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Game 4 and was replaced by Robertson, a former Brown who started 15 games for the Saints in ’15. Klein, a former Panther, played in high school at Kimberly, Wis.
What scouts said: “Interesting bunch of linebackers. You look at them and you say all of them should be inside linebackers. I like A.J. Klein. He’s one of those dependable guys who knows his limitations and is a try-hard guy. Much better as a run defender than a pass defender.” … “Robertson played inside in Cleveland. Slightly undersized but a smart guy. He doesn’t move real well. Little tight in the hips but he’s got good strength and plays with pretty good effort. He’d be a good fourth or fifth type linebacker. You wouldn’t see him as your starter.” … “(Alex) Anzalone was an athlete. He was different. He could run.” … “You wouldn’t want Te’o on the field in nickel and dime even though he’s a quick study. He understands formations and tendencies really well. Steady guy. He has straight-line speed. He doesn’t have coverage speed and change of direction.”
SECONDARY
Starters – LC Ken Crawley (6-0, 180, 4.44); RC Marshon Lattimore (6-0, 192, 4.36); SS Kenny Vaccaro (6-0, 214, 4.61); FS Marcus Williams (6-0 ½, 195, 202).
Key backups – S Vonn Bell (5-11, 205, 4.52); CB P.J. Williams (6-0, 196, 4.49); S Rafael Bush (5-10, 203, 4.48); S Chris Banjo 5-10, 207, 4.47).
Notes: Crawley, an undrafted free agent in 2016, has moved ahead of P.J. Williams, a third-round pick in ’15. He’s starting because Delvin Breaux remains on injured reserve with a broken fibula. Breaux could return in November. Lattimore was the 11th pick in April. Marcus Williams, another rookie, was drafted in the second round. Against Detroit, Vaccaro played almost the entire game in the slot and Bell then joined Marcus Williams deep. Bush was the dime back.
What scouts said: “Lattimore should be pretty good. He’ll challenge you in press. He’s a little bit cheap. He’ll try to throw an extra slap at a receiver or take a shot here or there. He likes to come across as this tough, aggressive corner that if I get my hands on you I’ll beat up on you. He has good enough speed to turn and run with guys out of press-man.” … “Crawley wore out his welcome at Colorado. He was an after-thought in New Orleans last year but they had injuries and he ended up playing fairly well for them (five starts). Much better suited to be a nickel or dime. Thin-framed but can run and is aggressive. Not terribly instinctive. Plays hard. I’m pretty sure he fancies himself as a cover corner, not a do-the-dirty-work type.” … “Crawley is just OK. Lattimore is the better of the two.” … “Vaccaro does run well and is a good athlete. He’s more a hitter. I think the reason they put him up close like that is they like to blitz him.” … “Vaccaro is more of a downhill run player. He’s very tough. He covers OK, not great.” … “P.J. Williams isn’t a tough guy.” … “Marcus Williams is pretty athletic and will take his shots at you. He’s a good complement to Vaccaro. Marcus runs better than Vaccaro and is more of a centerfielder. Vaccaro is more of an enforcer.” … “Bell is a finesse player. He’s not a big hitter back there. He’s back there more or less (to defend) the pass.” … “Bush is kind of the ideal dime type defensive back. Playing in passing situations and in coverage. He’s smart and can get everybody lined up.”
SPECIAL TEAMS
Coordinator – Bradford Banta (first year).
Personnel – K Wil Lutz (5-11, 184); P Thomas Morstead (6-4, 235); LS Zach Wood (6-3, 255); PR Ted Ginn; KOR Alvin Kamara.
Notes: Banta took over in January after Payton fired Greg McMahon, who was part of his first staff in 2006. Banta, a long snapper in the NFL from 1994-’04, had served as an assistant coach in Washington and Detroit. Lutz, a second-year free agent from Georgia State, is attempting to halt what has been a revolving door for Saints’ kickers since John Carney a decade ago. A two-year regular, he is 11 of 14 on field goals and 16 of 16 on extra points. Morstead, a nine-year regular, is tied for 21st in net average (40.5 yards). Ginn, with a 7.5 average in eight returns, has seven returns for touchdowns in 11 seasons. Kamara is averaging 24.0 in five returns. Kick coverage has been poor. Former Packers S Chris Banjo led the special teams in snaps (34) Sunday against Detroit.
What scouts said: “Lutz is fairly accurate. He doesn’t have a particularly big leg on kickoffs. Three, four yards deep. I think he’s solid. They’ve had issues there. I think they’ve got to feel pretty good about where they are with that position. They’ve gone through some kickers.” … “What you like about Morstead is he gets the ball off quick and has good hang time and good directional.” … “Don’t give Ted Ginn a crease, man. He’s not a shake-and-bake dude but he’ll flat out-run you. Ted might drop it or he might score.” … “Kamara has good speed and good strength.”
The post Scouting the New Orleans Saints: Odds don’t favor the Packers appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.
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