Scouting Report: Can MM solve Marvin Lewis and the Bengals?

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McGINN Scouting Report

By BOB McGINN
Mike McCarthy has won 64% of his games in 12 seasons with the Green Bay Packers compared to 51.3% for Marvin Lewis in his 15 seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ten of McCarthy’s victories have been in the postseason, including the 45th Super Bowl. Lewis’ playoff record is 0-7.
Nevertheless, Lewis and the Bengals represent the only team in the 32-team NFL that McCarthy has yet to defeat. He’s 0-2 against them, with a third chance approaching Sunday at Lambeau Field.
“I know Cincinnati has played them well,” an executive in personnel said Tuesday. “Green Bay still could be missing some key people. The Bengals will come in well-rested. It could be interesting.”
The Bengals slipped to 0-2 Thursday with a catatonic 13-9 loss to the injury-ridden Houston Texans and Deshaun Watson, their rookie quarterback. A day later Lewis fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese, who had been a member of his staff for all 15 years, and promoted quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor to replace him.
Playing both games at home, the Bengals were blanked by the Baltimore Ravens, 20-0, before being booed heavily against the Texans. They’ll be looking for their first touchdown against the Packers (1-1).
“You talk about a team that’s got a lot to prove,” the personnel man said. “But Cincinnati hasn’t scored a lot of points and I’m looking for that trend to continue.”
He called it for Green Bay, 28-17.
The Packers are a nine-point favorite, the same spot they had on Sept. 20, 2009 at Lambeau Field when the Bengals pulled the upset, 31-24. Somebody named Antwan Odom sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, Bears reject Cedric Benson gashed the Packers for 141 yards rushing and little Quan Cosby brought back two punts for 92 yards.
Judged by the point spread, it was the Packers’ worst loss since November 2001 and the Bengals’ biggest win since December 2000.
Only five other times in 196 games under McCarthy have the Packers gone down to defeat when favored by nine or more points.
On Sept. 22, 2013, the Packers were a three-point favorite at Paul Brown Stadium when they lost again to the Bengals, 34-30. Green Bay drove to the Cincinnati 20 with about a minute left before Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson batted down third- and fourth-down passes by Rodgers to win the game.
Dunlap and Johnson remain starters for a defense that no longer has Mike Zimmer as its coordinator but can be stubborn. If David Bakhtiari (hamstring) and Bryan Bulaga (ankle) sit out another game, they’d be opposed by tackles Kyle Murphy and Justin McCray.
“It all depends on those two tackles,” said another personnel executive. “If the tackles don’t play it’ll be like 20-17, Green Bay. If they play I’d say 27-10.”
The Bengals have been to the playoffs five times in the last six years. The Packers and Patriots are the only teams with six post-season berths since 2011.
Are these Bengals capable of an upset?
“It all depends on what the new offensive coordinator does,” said one scout. “I think their defense will be the same. They run the 4-3 and come off the edges. I don’t think their defense can handle Green Bay if the tackles play.”
A third personnel man called it for the Packers, 27-6. His comment: “Green Bay bounces back this week hosting the winless and offensive offense of the Cincinnati Bengals.”
The Bengals should have their lineup intact with the exception of linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who is suspended for one more game. On the other hand, wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, defensive tackle Mike Daniels, safety Kentrell Brice, linebacker Ahmad Brooks and the two tackles all are iffy for the Packers.
“You’d like to say this is Green Bay’s bounce-back game but it’d be nice if they were playing with the people they needed to be playing with to bounce back,” one of the scouts said. “But I don’t think Andy Dalton and Co. have that sync to match Green Bay even though they have enough talented players.
“I’ve always thought of that team (Cincinnati) as being feast or famine. They can show up and play you real tough sometimes and make big plays, and they do have some playmakers. Other times they can look as flat as any team in the league.”

OFFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Bill Lazor (first game).
Key assistant coaches – Paul Alexander, assistant head coach/offensive line; Jonathan Hayes, tight ends; James Urban, wide receivers.
Notes: Ken Zampese, an offensive assistant and quality control coach under Packers coach Ray Rhodes in 1999, was fired Friday just two games into his second season as coordinator. He was coach Marvin Lewis’ quarterbacks coach from 2003-’15. Under Zampese, the Bengals ranked 13th in yards and 24th in points last season. Lazor had been coaching their quarterbacks for 1 ½ seasons. He served as coach Joe Philbin’s coordinator in Miami from 2014-’15, finishing 14th in yards and 11th in points in the first year and 26th in yards and 27th in points in the second year. In 2008, Lazor coached QBs under Mike Holmgren in Seattle. The Bengals rank 27th in yards (258.0) and 32nd in points (nine). They have zero touchdowns.
What scouts said: “Ken Zampese was a West Coast guy, which is kind of where Lazor came from. He was at Seattle in that same West Coast offense. Lazor is very composed and cerebral. Almost like one of the New Wave coaches, kind of up and coming. He’ll get better and better. I think he has a really good relationship with the quarterback. That’s always been his forte. He can communicate with the quarterback. He’s not a holler or a screamer. Their inability to score points and get the ball to their playmakers is probably what cost Zampese his job.” … “They’ll run the same thing. There will be some tweaks but you can’t change the whole offense. They’re just looking for a communication type thing.”

WIDE RECEIVERS
Starters – A.J. Green (6-3 ½, 210, 4.49 40 before 2011 draft); Brandon LaFell (6-2 ½, 210, 4.56).
Top backups – John Ross (5-11, 190, 4.22); Tyler Boyd (6-1 ½, 197, 4.56); Alex Erickson (6-0, 195, 4.57).
Notes: In 2013, Green caught four passes for 46 yards and a 20-yard TD in his only game against the Packers. LaFell, a third-round draft choice by the Panthers in 2010, also played for New England. Ross, the ninth pick in the 2017 draft, made his NFL debut last week. He was benched after fumbling on a jet sweep for 12 yards. It was his fifth and last play of the game. He was replaced as No. 3 by Erickson, a second-year free agent. He played at Darlington High School and Wisconsin. Boyd, who caught 54 passes as a rookie, was a surprise inactive last week but should be in uniform this week.
What scouts said: “A.J. Green is up in that elite class. He can go up and get the ball in a crowd. He can run past people. He can make the acrobatic catches. He has good hands and is a good route runner as well.” … “When (Mohamed) Sanu left LaFell replaced him. LaFell is a bigger body receiver who runs good routes but doesn’t have the speed to separate. He’s not a blazer. He can catch and will give you some yards after contact. If the DBs are little guys or don’t wrap up, he can break tackles.” … “Ross has had an extensive injury history just because he’s a little guy. On the flip side, if they allow him to do things outside the numbers or get up the field, (that’s where) he’s safest and most explosive. If he lines up outside you best get on your horse, man, because we’ve all seen him run. He can run reverses but will take hits and cough the ball up, which we saw against Houston. I think they just got his attention by snatching him out of there. That was, ‘Welcome to the NFL.’ You don’t draft a guy like that and then not give him every opportunity.” … “All day long Boyd is a 4.62 guy but with very good body control. He’ll catch everything and runs a nice route. He’s just not really a vertical threat.” … “I’ve always thought of Erickson as being a classic overachiever. He’s not great at any one thing but he’ll be pretty good at everything. He’s got a little possession to him. If you don’t watch yourself he’ll put a double move on you and take you up the field. He has pretty good run-after-the-catch ability. You think he’s just a little guy but if you don’t respect him he’ll light you up.”

TIGHT ENDS
Starter – Tyler Eifert (6-5 ½, 255, 4.67).
Top backups – Tyler Kroft (6-5 ½, 260, 4.74).
Notes: Eifert, the 21st pick in 2013, played 50 snaps against Houston but probably will be listed as questionable. He has had numerous injuries over the years and underwent back surgery in the off-season. Kroft was a third-round pick in ’15.
What scouts said: “Eifert has had a few extra days to rest. If he can play he’ll be out there. The poor guy’s always hurt. The offense has run through him but he’s always had back and other issues. He’s a tall, lean guy who can be an impact player in the red zone because he’s a lot more athletic, quicker and faster than what you think. It’s a matchup problem.” … “Kroft is just a steady backup type. Nothing really special. Good enough size but won’t blow you up as a blocker and not really athletic.”

OFFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LT Cedric Ogbuehi (6-5 ½, 310, 4.95); LG Clint Boling (6-4 ½, 305, 5.30); C Russell Bodine (6-3, 308, 5.20); RG T.J. Johnson (6-4 ½, 295, 5.31) or Christian Westerman (6-3, 305, 5.20); RT Eric Fisher (6-6, 310, 5.02).
Top backups – T Andre Smith (6-4, 330, 5.29).
Notes: Two excellent starters, LT Andrew Whitworth and RG Kevin Zeitler, departed as unrestricted free agents on March 9. Ogbuehi, the 21st pick in 2015, has 35 7/8-inch arms. Of his 12 starts last season, 11 were at RT. Boling has 82 career starts. Bodine has started 52 games. RG Trey Hopkins, who won the job by default over Smith and others, is out after suffering a knee injury in the opener. Johnson, a seventh-round pick in ’13, started just one game in his first four years. Fisher, a second-round pick in ’15, started just four games in his first two years.

What scouts said: “Paul Alexander obviously has done a good job there (since 1994). They’ve gone through a little bit of a transition at tackle and (right) guard.” … “Fisher has done a little bit of everything in his two years there. He’s an athletic guy who has played at tight end and in the backfield. He doesn’t have very good strength. He’s just going to be a position blocker. Lack of strength is the issue with him.” … “Ogbuehi is tall and pretty, just the way you like them. Long arms. Long legs. Not a physical blocker but uses his long arms to kind of lock the defender up. Or if you come off the edge at him he’ll just try to run you up the field. He struggles with compact power rushers who can get into him and out-leverage him and push him back into the quarterback. Looks like he could be a power forward.” … “Boling is steady as can be. He’s kind of the rock there. He’s got good strength. You’re not going to run him over. Smart guy.” … “Bodine has natural girth and strength. Much better when he can stay within his three or four yards. He’s not an athletic type. More stout and anchor and powerful hands. Not great feet.” … “This would have been Trey Hopkins’ opportunity. Johnson has always been a backup swing guy. He’s not really athletic or really strong, but he is smart and a good position blocker. That’s how he survives. He gets into you, flips his hips and tries to wall you off.” … “Boling is their best. I think Ogbuehi is going to be pretty good so he’s next. Bodine is third.”

QUARTERBACKS
Starter – Andy Dalton (6-2, 220, 4.86).
Backup – A.J. McCarron (6-3 ½, 215, 4.93).
Notes: Dalton, 29, brought a passer rating of 89.1 and a starting record of 56-35-2 into the season. He’s off to the worst start of his career with a rating of 47.2. He was a four-year starter at TCU, finishing with a 42-7 record. His score was 29 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. McCarron, a fourth-round pick in ’14 out of Alabama, has made four starts. His Wonderlic was 22.
What scouts said: “I’ve never been a big fan of Andy Dalton. Their receivers were the ones that actually made Andy Dalton look a lot better than he is. I always thought when he was in trouble he’d throw the ball up, but he had guys making plays for him.” … “He’s deceptive in regards to being athletic and mobile. People think he’s going to be a drop-back passer but he’s actually a little bit better when he improvises. He can extend plays. Average arm strength and accuracy. He’s a smart guy even though when you pressure him he’ll make some bad decisions. Problem is right now, when they ask him to do it all, it exposes him. He’s not that guy at all.” … “McCarron fits the same mold. He has better size and is a better downfield passer. Will struggle when pressured. Doesn’t have great mobility. He’ll make good decisions.”

RUNNING BACKS
Starters – RB Jeremy Hill (6-0 ½, 230, 4.65); FB Ryan Hewitt (6-4, 255, 4.90).
Top backups – RB Giovani Bernard (5-8 ½, 205, 4.52); RB Joe Mixon (6-0 ½, 228, 4.47).
Notes: Hill and Mixon, a second-round pick in April, have been alternating carries on early downs. Bernard, the third-down back, looks to be in form after undergoing ACL surgery in November.
What scouts said: “Any offense in the NFL would like to have those three backs as your running back by committee. All of them bring something unique. Bernard is a smaller guy, a finesse runner. Quick, makes people miss and has really good hands. He can gash you.” … “Jeremy Hill is a bigger back, more of a pounder. He should keep it between the tackles. His problem is he’ll have some nice runs and all of a sudden he’ll put the ball on the ground. He can make some fantastic runs, especially short yardage-goalline.” … “Joe Mixon may very well be the most talented of the three. As a young back, he’s still learning the offense. They’ll have certain plays for him where he’ll look pretty good and others where he’s just not hitting it like he should. That just comes with experience. He’s got good toughness picking up blitzes but will he be consistent? Thick lower body with good enough speed to run away from people.” … “Hewitt is a cross between a tight end and a fullback. Not a blow-you-up lead blocker. He does have good toughness but he’s more wall you off and create a lane. Finesse guy. Adequate hands.”

DEFENSIVE SCHEME
Coordinator – Paul Guenther (fourth year).
Key assistant coaches – Jim Haslett, linebackers; Kevin Coyle, secondary;
Notes: Guenther runs a 4-3 defense that is similar in many ways to the scheme that Mike Zimmer ran in Cincinnati from 2008-’13. It was that defense that helped the Bengals defeat the Packers twice in that span: 31-24 in ’09 and 34-30 in ’13. Guenther employs a one-gap system and doesn’t do much blitzing. Last year, the Bengals ranked 17th in yards and eighth in points. Currently, they rank fifth in yards (267.0) and tied for seventh in points (33).
What scouts said: “Guenther was the linebacker coach under Zimmer and when he left they named him coordinator. It’s a basic 4-3. They’ll run three-deep and man-free, and quarters in the red zone.” … “They’ll show blitz in the A gaps and back out.”

DEFENSIVE LINE
Starters – LE Carlos Dunlap (6-5 ½, 280, 4.62); NT Pat Sims (6-2, 330, 5.08); 3-technique Geno Atkins (6-1 ½, 300, 4.80); RE Michael Johnson (6-7, 280, 4.69).
Top backups – DE Jordan Willis (6-3 ½, 260, 4.56); DE Chris Smith (6-1, 266, 4.69); DT Ryan Glasgow (6-3, 302, 5.18); NT Andrew Billings (6-0 ½, 325, 5.01).
Notes: This is one of the oldest starting units in the league with an average age of 29.5. Atkins blew out his ACL in mid-2013 and struggled to a three-sack season in ’14. However, he registered 20 sacks in 2015-’16 and already has three sacks in the first two games. Johnson sat out Game 2 with a concussion but is expected back Sunday. He’ll move inside alongside Atkins on passing downs. Smith, a former Jaguar, has impressed in spot duty. Two rookies, Willis and Glasgow, give great effort and are contributing.
What scouts said: “Dunlap is a long, tall guy. Pretty good get-off. Will anticipate the count and will jump offsides. If he matches up with the right guy in one-on-one situations he can take advantage of a tackle. Couple years ago he had a lot of sacks. He’s not necessarily a bend off the edge guy. The knock on him is when things aren’t going good you get inconsistent effort from him. He can flash pretty good and then disappear.” … “When Pat Sims’ weight is under control he can flash effort and ability. Basically, he’s a stout interior run defender. His effort is up and down, as is his weight.” … “If you can get Atkins singled up it’s going to be a mismatch. He’s a high-motor guy who can pressure the passer and is strong enough to defend the run. He’s been pretty dominant inside since he had time to come back from the ACL.” … “Johnson is built similarly to Dunlap. Pretty good edge rusher. More finesse. Little bit of a descending player.” … “Willis is just a big muscular guy. Little bit clueless in regard to overall scheme. Simplest thing for him is to put his hand down and go rush the passer.” … “I kind of like Chris Smith. He gives you more effort and has better movement than what you think. I would imagine they would play him a lot more as this thing progresses. He has enough strength to play inside or outside.” … “Glasgow is a grunt type of interior player. If you sleep on him he can make a play. Billings is a little sloppy type body guy. Know what I mean? At some point he’ll get a start and it’ll be too big for him and he’ll always be a rotational guy.”

LINEBACKERS
Starters – SLB Nick Vigil (6-2 ½, 240, 4.65); MLB Kevin Minter (6-0, 246, 4.72); WLB Vincent Rey (6-2, 245, 4.55).
Top backups – SLB Carl Lawson (6-1 ½, 260, 4.74); WLB Jordan Evans (6-3, 240, 4.55).
Notes: WLB Vontaze Burfict, the leader of the defense, will return next week after a three-game suspension. Vigil started alongside Green Bay’s Kyler Fackrell at Utah State; Vigil was selected one spot ahead of Fackrell in the 2016 third round. Minter, a second-round pick in ’13, started for 2 ½ years in Arizona before signing a one-year, $4.25 million deal in March.
What scouts said: “Losing Burfict hurts them. Made plays, good tackler, physical. He’ll blitz and take shots at your quarterback.” … “Vigil is tall and lean. Doesn’t have a lot of strength but he is smart. Pretty good feel for dropping in zones. Pretty good athlete. Finesse linebacker. He’s meant to be a good special-teams player.” … “Minter is a shorter guy and has good speed. He’s not a tough guy. He’s a run-and-chase player. He was a starter at Arizona.” … “Rey is like the ironman. He used to be the fill-in guy everywhere. He’s short and compact. Got good straight-line speed and he’s smart. Not a great athlete or football player but you can line him up anywhere at any time.” … “Is Lawson always going to be a hands-down pass rusher or is he going to line up and play linebacker for them? I’m thinking he’ll just add a little speed to the pass rush and won’t be able to play linebacker.”

SECONDARY
Starters – LC Dre Kirkpatrick (6-1 ½, 185, 4.52); RC Adam “Pacman” Jones (5-9 ½, 185, 4.40); SS Shawn Williams (6-0, 210, 4.48); FS George Iloka (6-3 ½, 230, 4.61).
Top backups – CB Darqueze Dennard (5-11, 205, 4.42); SS Clayton Fejedelem (6-0, 205, 4.58).
Notes: Kirkpatrick didn’t move into the lineup until his fourth season after arriving as the 17th pick in 2012. Jones, a week shy of his 34th birthday, will be making his 100th start in a career that began as Tennessee’s sixth pick in ’05. Dennard, the nickel back, was the 24th pick in ’14. He seems to be a step slow, possibly because he weighs too much. Iloka has started 65 games and Williams has started 22.
What scouts said: “Pacman is Pacman, know what I mean? You talk about feast or famine? He can make plays because he is the ultimate gambler. He’ll just go off what he sees. You would think at this point he’d make smarter decisions out there. He still relies on his athleticism. He’ll sit on things. He can still run. He’s still athletic and still has good ball skills. That’s why they keep him there. Even at this point Pacman is still their best (defensive back).” … “I think Kirkpatrick has developed into a pretty good corner. I wouldn’t have been saying this early on. Not a quick-twitch guy. Has pretty good buildup speed. In press, if he can get his hands on you he’s pretty good. He will sit on the short stuff.” … “Dennard is more of a zone or Cover 2 corner. I didn’t think he was a fit for press man. They stuck with him and he’s come along as a solid corner. I still don’t think he was worthy of a first-round pick.” … “Neither one of the safeties are range guys or gifted centerfielders. They’re strong-safety types, more physical enforcers. Iloka is almost like an undersized linebacker who hits and tackles pretty well. Iloka is better than Williams.”

SPECIAL TEAMS
Coordinator – Darrin Simmons (15th year).
Kicker – Randy Bullock (5-9, 214).
Punter – Kevin Huber (6-1, 210).
Long snapper – Clark Harris (6-5, 250).
Kick returners – KR-PR Alex Erickson, PR Adam “Pacman” Jones.
Notes: On his fifth team in six years, Bullock has a career field-goal mark of 81.9%. Huber, a Pro Bowler in 2014, has rewritten the team’s record book. Harris was drafted in the seventh round as a tight end by the Packers in ’07 but was released at the end of his first training camp. He has been snapping for the Bengals since Game 6 of 2009. Erickson and Jones shared punt returns last week.
What scouts said: “Pacman has courage as a return guy. He’ll take some shots. He’s a better punt returner because he’s fearless. He can score. He can still run.” … “Erickson can do both. He picks his way, cutting and twisting.” … “I never thought of Huber as being a strong-legged guy. I always thought of him being pretty good with directional stuff. If you have a dangerous return guy he does a nice job putting the ball over by the sidelines.” … “Bullock doesn’t have a strong leg. He can’t drive the ball. On kickoffs, he can’t get hang time and distance. He’s more of a finesse field-goal kicker. He’s just a journeyman.”
 
I'm worried about this game more today, than I was before. The talk of the temperature reaching as high as 90°. Possibly higher. With the potential of being short handed on players, a big difference. Guys will spend more time on the field than you want. Will we win? Yes. But like the article says, it depends on who is out injured, and who is capable of playing. We can't go into the game short handed and think we're going to walk away with it.

This has to be an injury free game, because we face the Bears in four days with the short week. That's what concerns me most.
 
It's the NFL, any given Sunday and all that. Never as good or as bad as you look in a given week. Still, CIN has not scored a TD in two home games, and they will be without their second best offensive player for this game. This feels like a win IMO.
 
Even with all the injuries I think Packers can win easy. The Bengals are a mess right now. Everything you read that team is a powder keg ready to explode. Players already got their OC fired and reports many have turned on Dalton and have to wonder if they have or are ready to turn on Lewis also. I think this is a team that has some many internal issues that they have little focus on the field right now.
 
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