NFC West Predictions

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When I talk about where a team ranked last year, I will be using Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average). In their own words, “DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.” It’s one of my favorite football stats. (You can read more about DVOA here.)



Seattle Seahawks

I don’t know why I volunteered to write about the NFC West. The NFC Championship game still hangs over me like a specter, distorting my perception of the world around me. Every conversation I have ends with me trailing off in the middle of a thought and staring off into the distance. By the time the spell has been broken, I am alone. I was in Seattle recently and I ended up renting the fastest car I could find just to escape. I’m seriously considering going to the Seahawks game in Lambeau just so I won’t have to watch a thousand replays of the collapse on the telecast.
I’m not okay, is my point. But I’m a professional. I’ll rise above it.

The Seahawks beat up on their division last season, going 5-1 with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. They should do about the same this year. The rest of their schedule is no cakewalk, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see them get to 11 wins this season, which will allow them to cruise to a division title.



Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had the second ranked defense in the league last year, but the 23rd best offense. They might be lucky to reach the heights of the 23rd best offense this year. They’re going into the season with a QB depth chart comprised of Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas. Palmer looked good before going down with a knee injury last season, but, to repeat that, he went down with a knee injury last season. He’s 35 and coming back from his second ACL tear. To expect him to be the savior of the Cardinals offense is not a bet I would ever take. I would imagine it would take him half the season to recover to the point where he is completely comfortable inside the pocket, and that’s if I’m being extremely charitable.

Even if he is able to come back fully recovered, it’s doubtful he will be as efficient as he was in his 6 starts last season. In those 6 starts, his interception percentage was 1.3%. His career average is 3.2%. And, while I wouldn’t mind seeing Palmer have a good season, I can’t imagine that he suddenly learned to stop throwing interceptions at this stage in his career. Prior to this last season, his lowest interception percentage was 2.4%, and that came all the way back in 2005. His first season in Arizona (4.2% interception rate, 22 interceptions) seems more indicative of his skills at this point. He’ll make some great throws, but he will also make some terrible ones. If Palmer gets injured (or is ineffective), Drew Stanton is waiting in the wings. Stanton performed admirably last season, but he’s not good enough to be a starting quarterback on a team with playoff hopes. In 9 total appearances last season (8 starts), he completed 55% of his passes, with 7 TDs and 5 INTs. Not a guy you want leading your team.
And Logan Thomas? Who knows. His dad will tell you that Thomas should be the starter, but there is no evidence to support that. Maybe he can. Maybe he can’t. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that he can be a quality starting QB, at least not in this stage of his career.

The defense is still good. They’ll win some close games, and they’ll force a lot of turnovers. But the offense won’t be able to put up consistent points, and that will kill them. It’s possible that they’ll find their way into the playoffs, but it’s more likely they’ll go 7-9.



St. Louis Rams

After years of underachieving, Sam Bradford was finally shipped out of town. No more watching him throw his shoulder out after floating a 10 yard out. Rams fans now get to pin their hopes on Nick Foles. That may be an upgrade, but it’s a miniscule one. After trading for Foles, they promptly signed him to a 2 year extension, which is probably not the wisest move when it comes to a guy coming off a season where he completed less than 60% of his passes and threw 13 TDs against 10 INTs. But the Rams are hanging all their hopes on Foles, because the prospect of Austin Davis, Case Keenum or Sean Mannion lining up under center doesn’t exactly leave defenders shaking in their boots.

Which is a shame, because there are some really nice pieces on offense. They have Tre Mason at running back, with Todd Gurley set to join them a few weeks into the season. They have Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Chris Givens and Kenny Britt at wide receiver. They have Jared Cook at tight end. It’s not exactly a murderer’s row, but that’s not a bad collection of skill players. (I’d be more excited about Tavon Austin if he were on a team that actually knew how to use him, but that’s an article for another time.)

The defense was 9th overall last season and they added Nick Fairley in the offseason. They should be a stout unit once again this season.

And yet, even with all that talent, another 6-10 season seems pretty likely. They have a tough schedule and their offense will struggle to put up points. Get ready for a lot of three-and-outs and interceptions. Rams football!



San Francisco 49ers

Sweet Holy Moses. Where to even begin? Let’s start with a short list of players who will not be suiting up for the 49ers this season:
Frank Gore
Patrick Willis
Chris Borland
Aldon Smith
Justin Smith
Mike Iupati
Michael Crabtree
Dan Skuta
Perrish Cox
Chris Culliver
Andy Lee

And then there is Jim Harbaugh – their best coach since George Seifert – who was run out on a rail by ownership. Having gone through their share of terrible coaches, the 49ers should know the value of a good coach. Apparently, that’s still a lesson they will need to learn. Jim Tomsula could be a decent coach, but half the team is gone. The offense will alternate between Colin Kaepernick throwing as far as he can and hoping Torrey Smith can catch up to it, and screen passes to Reggie Bush. The defense will set up tripwires at the line of scrimmage to stop the running game and pray to Jobu that the other team has not yet discovered the advent of the forward passing game.

If Kaepernick is injured behind this piecemeal offensive line, they’ve got Blaine Gabbert waiting in the wings. His helmet will always be on. His face will be giddy with excitement. “This is the year. This is the year the world finally takes me seriously.” It will be one of the saddest sideline scenes you will witness all season.

The 49ers had one of the worst offseasons I can remember. It’s gone. It’s all gone. I’m actually kind of excited to watch this team this year. Just how bad will they actually be? I’m on the edge of my seat.

Thank you for reading. Dusty Evely is a staff writer for Titletown Sound Off. You can follow him on Twitter @DustyEvely. For even more Packers content, follow us on Twitter and Like us on Facebook.

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