CC's Week 12 CFB Poll

Discussion in 'Badger Den' started by Crease Creature, Nov 13, 2017.

  1. Crease Creature

    Crease Creature Lifetime Member

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    There's two ways to look at this past weekend of college football. Everything either became a little more solid as far as the post season looks, or the gates of chaos have been blown down and things have become as clear as mud.

    Suddenly the SEC East looks like garbage, and the SEC West looks a little shaky as well. Washington really let down the Pac-12, and Miami made a statement that rang loud and clear from Coral Gables to the edges of the known universe. Wisconsin made a similar statement though I think fewer people heard that one.

    If you want to check out the previous rankings, here are week 10's and week 11's

    1. Alabama (10-0; 7-0 SEC W) - Ooooo! Mississippi State almost had you guys. Almost. I don't know if you had Mercer on your mind or if what Auburn did to Georgia caught you by surprise and you let that affect your own game. What is apparent is that this tune up game against a FCS team (which I am trying to figure how to factor into my SOS scoring for my 16 team playoff seeding) takes on new meaning, as the Iron Bowl suddenly looks a lot more dangerous. Up next: vs. Mercer (last: 1)
    2. Miami (9-0; 6-0 ACC C) - What a statement, what a beatdown. This Miami team had a few squeaker games midseason after laying wallops on Toledo and Duke in September. Beating ND 41-8 (and the game wasn't as close as the score would indicate) makes me think you've got what it takes, and I feel confident giving you the jump over my beloved Badgers, as last week I said the winner of this game is most likely in. I like the idea of your turnover chain. Maybe we should do something like that for Hornibrook. Miami has clinched the ACC Coastal. Up next: vs Virginia (last: 4)
    3. Wisconsin (10-0; 7-0 B1G W) - speaking of Alex Hornibrook, I said last week that he's gonna give the other team the ball once or twice, and in this case he provided the only points for Iowa. The tenacious D of the Badgers held the Hawkeyes to 66 total yards and 0 points a week after posting 495 and 55 against Ohio State. Sixty-six, and zero. That's the lowest yardage output allowed by Wisconsin to a Big Ten foe since, what was it, 1974? Nathan Stanley went 8 for 24, and had more throw-aways than completions in the face of the rush and the lockdown coverage. Jimmy Leonhard's crew even managed a scoop and score. In fact, that was the only blip on the defensive performance is that Iowa's defense outscored Wisconsin's defense 14-7. The offense picked up the slack though, outscoring Iowa 31-0. Oh by the way, the girls at the KK loooove big men who pull out, so you know center Tyler Biadasz was getting some numbers that night. Alec Ingold probably got some love too. Keep On, Wisconsin. Keep On. Wisconsin has clinched the B1G West. Up next: vs. Michigan (last: 3)
    4. Oklahoma (9-1; 6-1 BigXII) - well, ya did it, ya bums. Alone in first place, you actually have the toughest schedule left of the top 4 teams in your conference. TCU finishes with TT and Baylor, Ok State finishes with the teams up Knorth, and you, Sooners, have Kansas and West Virginia. So unless WVU knocks you off, you'll get a rematch with the Horned Frogs for the conference title. Should West Virginia win, and everyone else holds serve, there's a four way tie for 1st... that'll make things interesting. Please WVU, make things interesting. Up next: @Kansas (last: 9)
    5. Clemson (9-1; 7-1 ACC A) - Last week I was ripping on the AP voters, this week I'm looking at you, Amway Coaches poll voters. Have you all forgotten that Clemson has the worst loss out of any of the teams in your top 15? Seriously, you voted like Clemson beat a FSU team that was 6-3 instead of 3-6. That loss to Syracuse was only a month ago. Was it because they beat Auburn in week 2? A game (I've learned) where Auburn gave up 11 sacks? I've got you on the outside looking in right now. Clemson has clinched the ACC Atlantic. Up next: vs The Citadel (last: 7)
    6. Auburn (8-2; 6-1 SEC W) - well I'm impressed. I didn't see what people were seeing in you before, and I guess neither did Georgia. What a whuppin. It was nice of you to at least schedule another FBS team for your tune up before the Iron Bowl, a game now upon which all your postseason dreams hinge. A three-loss team isn't making the final four, but if you beat Alabama, and then Georgia again... who knows? Up next: vs. LA-Monroe (last: 12)
    7. Georgia (9-1; 6-1 SEC E) -oops: Well that wasn't supposed to happen. Heck, going into the second quarter I'm not sure the Bulldogs even knew what was happening. It was after halftime though is when things really started to fall apart. This is a terrible loss, no mistake, and it ends (it should anyway) all talk of getting two SEC teams into the final four. Up next: vs Kentucky (last: 2)
    8. USC (9-2; 7-1 Pac-12 S) - I would usually try to keep you behind a team that beat you down, but you've got one more game in hand, you've done well against a decent schedule, your only losses are on the road, but I don't think there's anything you can do to climb much further. That early season win over Stanford sure is nice to have in the back pocket. The Trojans have clinched the Pac-12 South. Up next: vs UCLA (last: 11)
    9. Ohio State (8-2; 6-1 B1G E) - A massive beatdown of Michigan State solidifies the East for you, though you haven't clinched it yet. Winning 48-3 sure is one way to get the taste of raw corncob out of your mouth, which is what Iowa did you to last week. I was hoping that it would discombobulate you completely. You're a big benefactor in a bunch of the teams in front of you losing. Up next: vs Illinois (last: 13)
    10. Notre Dame (8-2) - and just like that millions of dollars cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced, as the playoff committee watched the most lucrative draw left in contention just get swept off the field. Seriously, the slaughter was on before halftime, and the party started shortly after that. The worst part is your remaining schedule gives you little chance of playing your way back into the conversation. This also saves me the headache of trying to figure out how to seed a 1-loss ND in my 16 team bracket. Up next: vs Navy (last: 5)
    11. Penn State (8-2; 5-2 B1G E) - Ok, there's nobody left who's jumping up, so I think you're the best of the bunch outside the top 10, though after what Georgia and ND did, they're fair game to get picked off next week (not Georgia, if they lose Kirby is fired). Barkley started off the year really really hot, and between his play and several others I was confident in my prediction that a RB would win the Heisman this year. Unfortunately, Baker Mayfield gets to play in the BigXII and put up numbers in games that would make Madden aficionados do a double take. He's got a shot, though, as Nebraska has given up more 200 yard rushing games this season than they have in their entire history combined. Up next: Nebraska (last: 10)
    12. Oklahoma State (8-2; 5-2 BigXII) - Man, this game was giving me palpitations. Iowa State has scored 40+ five times this season, and is now 3-2 in those games (though one was against Kansas, and therefore shouldn't count). The defensive woes continue to plague the Cowboys, but thanks to the offensive splurge that is Mason Rudolph, the ship stays afloat. James Washington made his way back from injury, though I would keep him on the sidelines as long as the game stays in hand (and they should, 2 home games against the Sunflower State teams are left). You're tied for second in the conference, you have the tiebreaker over WVU, TCU holds the tiebreaker over you. After that I'm not sure what the criteria might be, but your best hope is that West Virginia can knock off the Sooners in two weeks. (last: 15)
    13. TCU (8-2; 5-2 BigXII) - You drop behind the Pokes as their only losses are to teams ahead of them in the standings (of which you are one). That said, you've got the inside track to a rematch with OU, as you've got head to head wins over the other two teams tied for 2nd place with you. Although I'm sure you wouldn't mind West Virginia pulling off the upset either. What happened to that defense, by the way? That was the most points and the most yards you've allowed all season long. Not a good time to lay an egg. And speaking of eggs, the offense was no great shakes against what is clearly not your normal OU defense. 20 is the fewest TCU has scored besides the 7 they managed in Ames (and that was a special teams score), but the Cyclones defense has been one of the bigger surprises in college football this year. (last: 6)
    14. Washington (8-2; 5-2 Pac-12 N) - as mentioned in my header, as went Washington, so goes the Pac-12's slim shot at a playoff appearance. Last week I mentioned how the meat of Washington's schedule was ahead of them, they went a choked on the first bite. They faced a tough road to moving up even with Stanford, Utah, Wazzou, and USC on their schedule, but now they're a half game behind Stanford and Wazzou for the division, and they lose the tie breaker with Stanford (should the Cardinal beat Cal next week). Up next: vs. Utah (last: 8)
    15. UCF (9-0; 6-0 AAC E) - The Knights' closest game so far this season was a 7-pt victory over SMU last week. They've got a victory over ranked Memphis (40-13 back in Sept) and their next best game will be in two weeks against South Florida (a game with GTech was cancelled b/c of hurricanes). They've still got 1-loss SoFlo right behind them for the East division. I'm not sure the Knights' schedule gives them the opportunity to make my playoff as an at-large bid, but we'll see when it's time to crunch those numbers. The AAC might be sneaky good (they've got three ranked teams!). Up next: @ Temple (last: 17)
    16. Washington State (9-2; 6-2 Pac-12 N) - You're mostly here because you're in contention for your division, and while you've got two nice wins (both at home (USC, Stanford)), your losses are inexcusable for a team trying to make noise. Getting whomped by Cal (by 34) and Arizona (by 21) are not good things. Enjoy your week off. Up next: bye (last: NR)
    17. Memphis (8-1; 5-1 AAC W) - giving Memphis a shot because their only loss is to the team leading the other half of their conference, and they've got a win over UCLA. That's all I've got. Up next: vs SMU (last: NR)
    18. Army (8-2) In honor of Veterans Day, I am including the football team from the United States Military Academy at West Point, and ignoring their weird loss to Tulane from late Sept. I can do it because it's my poll, and none of you guys can tell me otherwise. Army lost by 31 at Ohio State, has wins over Duke, Buffalo, and shut out Air Force without a single pass attempt, gaining nearly 400 yards on the ground. Hats off to our Vets, in all branches, and their families, who have provided us with the opportunity to sit here and make meaningless college football polls.
      CLP)
    Newcomers: Memphis, Army
    Welcome Back: I'm not going back in my polls/notes to look, but I'm pretty sure Wazzou was here at least once before.
    Dropped out: Michigan State, Virginia Tech (I think their season just wore them out).

    No more bottom teams, because we're close to the end!

    Here are the teams still alive for automatic bids to my 16 team playoff:
    AAC: UCF, South Florida, Memphis, Houston
    ACC: Clemson or Miami
    BigXII: OU, OkState, WVU, TCU
    B1G: Ohio St, Penn St, MSU, Mich, Wisconsin
    Conf USA: FL Atlantic, Marshall, FIU, N Texas, UAB
    MAC: Ohio, N. Ill, Toledo
    MWC: Boise St, Wyoming, Fresno St, SDSU
    Pac-12: Stanford, Wazzou, Washington, USC
    SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Auburn
    Sun Belt: Troy, ???, ??? (there are 4 teams with one conference loss)

    At 2000+ words, it's a good thing this is a forum, because I don't think I'd get a magazine to publish me.
     
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  2. Mark87

    Mark87 Carpe Diem Admin

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    Nope as long as Georgia doesn't lose anymore they still get a shot. They could beat Bama and because of the RPI of strength of schedule they both get in along with Miami and Clemson.sh))
     
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  3. Budman

    Budman Lifetime Member

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    Will there be a 2 loss team in the playoffs? A few games left to play but it seems plausible. Which one will it be?
     
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  4. TW

    TW Moderator

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    If the ACC and SEC each placed two teams in the playoffs, it would be the end of the playoffs.

    As far as I'm concerned, the playoffs need to be expanded to insure that the conference champ from each of the five major conferences are in, and add three more teams, at large. I would be looking at 3 teams from outside those five conferences.

    I know you could have two great teams in the same conference, but this whole thing is a beauty contest for the ACC and SEC anyhow. It has to change.

    Great analysis CC. You offered up a lot of questions as to where this whole thing will go over the next four weeks.
     
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  5. Crease Creature

    Crease Creature Lifetime Member

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    You're killin' me smalls.

    After next week I'm going to start a thread on all the potential playoff scenarios that I can think of.
     
  6. Crease Creature

    Crease Creature Lifetime Member

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    Auburn could if they run the table, Ohio State if they win out, clobber Wisconsin (who will suddenly become a great win for the Buckeyes) and get a little help above.

    Those are the easiest two to see. There's a couple of more but it's rather convoluted.
     
  7. Budman

    Budman Lifetime Member

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    I will puke if Ohio State gets in. They seem to always have the luck. UW better take it to them. Would love to see Michigan upset OSU but that is darn near impossible.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2017
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  8. Budman

    Budman Lifetime Member

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    BTW, great write up Crease. These are very informative, well written and well researched.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2017
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  9. Crease Creature

    Crease Creature Lifetime Member

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    For the record, my prediction of the committee rankings is
    1. Alabama 2. Miami 3. Clemson 4. OU
    5. Auburn (they got a massive jump for bearing A&M) 6. Georgia 7. Wisconsin.

    The top four I'm pretty sure of the teams, I'm not sure about their order. I'm also certain they're not moving Wisconsin up, OSU didn't fall that far for losing to Iowa, and Iowa's suddenly unranked again.
     
  10. Mark87

    Mark87 Carpe Diem Admin

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    It's a goofy formula but so far it's worked in the end.
     

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