Bold Prediction Thread

I see TT as being a very excellent "strategic" type of GM. By that I mean he's always considering long term, not just the immediate need. When dealing with a salary cap, that (IMO) is the correct way to do it. You're not putting all your eggs into one basket, or in the short term case, all your salary cap dollars into one time window. (Although I understand that's an effective approach too - if you do win the SB and if you're okay with successive losing years to recover.)

The QB eats the largest piece of the cap pie. After that, you can only maintain a core of about 12 players at least what they're worth. Then the remaining 53 must play at vet min, one-year "prove yourself" deals, or rookie contracts. That's the way it is when dealing with a cap. This is why when you look at a FA, not only are you bidding against other teams to get him, if you do get them it is a must they work out as you're expecting them to be part of your core because you just paid at least what they're worth. Seldom are you getting a deal. This is why draft, develop and maintaining your players is important.

Usually, GMs divide the draft into three parts. In the first three rounds they look for starters. Success means hitting on all three (maybe two) because if they don't there will be salary cap problems signing FAs to make up for misses. In rounds four and five, they're looking for backups and in rounds six and seven, STers or practice squad players. TT has been the most successful GM in finding starters overall! (Though admittedly not near the top in Round 1!)

If a team has a good draft, that means they "hit" on at least four draft picks. On the average, two will become part of their core and the rest will be lost to FA, or replaced by another hit. The Packers and TT have also been hugely successful in getting "hits", and keeping their "hits". After that it's up to the coaching staff to develop their core - thereby avoiding FA.

I believe TT has been very effective in his role of providing players to the coaching staff to develop. I've lived through the 70s, 80s and early 90s. I'd rather the team I'm a fan of is a contender every year, then building to be a short-term juggernaut (which really doesn't exist) that has a short term window to win it all before the losing begins. If they're built to contend every year then if they win the SB, "Awesome!", and if they don't then truly, "There's always next year!"

That's why I'm a TT backer.
 
I believe TT has been very effective in his role of providing players to the coaching staff to develop. I've lived through the 70s, 80s and early 90s. I'd rather the team I'm a fan of is a contender every year, then building to be a short-term juggernaut (which really doesn't exist) that has a short term window to win it all before the losing begins. If they're built to contend every year then if they win the SB, "Awesome!", and if they don't then truly, "There's always next year!"

That's why I'm a TT backer.

Fair enough. Personal choice for all, but I'd rather have an extra Lombardi or two, even if it meant some missed-the-playoffs seasons in my rearview mirror. I'm also getting tired of being a preseason favorite and ultimately having to 'wait 'til next year'.

I've been around since pre-Lombardi, and I wasn't nearly as upset with the Gory Years as some are. We were never expected to win anything big, so we were never disappointed, and instead of sleepwalking through the regular season for another shot at the important games, every game was fun because we had a chance to ruin somebody else's chances.
 
Well, if we want to get technical here:

It's TT's fault for not balancing FA and the draft enough. He is too safe, IMO. I am not saying we should spend out of control but we could definitely spend more in certain areas.

It's MM's fault for being out coached, bad clock management as well as being safe at the end of games in the playoffs. We all saw that at Seattle two years ago.

It's the Board of Directors fault for not caring if we win championships or not as long as the team is making money and they look good. No firing anyone or making any changes when the cash flow is good.

There is plenty of blame to go around here, IMO.

On that note, I do agree with what you said Half Empty.
 
Well, if we want to get technical here:

It's TT's fault for not balancing FA and the draft enough. He is too safe, IMO. I am not saying we should spend out of control but we could definitely spend more in certain areas.

It's MM's fault for being out coached, bad clock management as well as being safe at the end of games in the playoffs. We all saw that at Seattle two years ago.

It's the Board of Directors fault for not caring if we win championships or not as long as the team is making money and they look good. No firing anyone or making any changes when the cash flow is good.

There is plenty of blame to go around here, IMO.

On that note, I do agree with what you said Half Empty.

If you want to get technical yes it is all of their faults. TT, MM, the BOD and the 53 man roster. It's certainly not any of our fault. My contention is there aren't many better and firing any of them for the perceived lack of success doesn't make much sense considering what alternatives are out there. Short of Belicheck there aren't many I'd prefer in Green Bay.

In the last 10 years only the Giants have repeated as Super Bowl champions. The Giants. Let that sink in.

In the last 20 years there have been 11 different Super Bowl champions. 6 Teams have more than 1. New England has 4, Denver has 3, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New York and The Green Bay Packers each have 2.

I don't entirely disagree with Half Empty or you but just look at it more on the realistic side that you cannot win every year.

If Green Bay would have one that NFCCG in Seattle and then Super Bowl, would this conversation be any different?
 
It's TT's fault for not balancing FA and the draft enough. He is too safe, IMO. I am not saying we should spend out of control but we could definitely spend more in certain areas.
The whole organization is a bit too risk averse IMO as well.

It's MM's fault for being out coached, bad clock management as well as being safe at the end of games in the playoffs. We all saw that at Seattle two years ago.
We did see it in Seattle. I like the "three score" rule: In the 4th quarter, unless you're well inside the 2-minute warning, don't go conservative unless you're at least three scores up! (>16 points)

It's the Board of Directors fault for not caring if we win championships or not as long as the team is making money and they look good. No firing anyone or making any changes when the cash flow is good.
Hearsay... that one I disagree with.

There is plenty of blame to go around here, IMO.
No mention of Capers? Shocked(

So mostly I agree with you. However, I believe it's easy to pick ANY team and find fault for years they didn't make it. All in all I agree with what they're doing. This year again they're legitimate SB contenders.
 
This organization is SB contenders because we have one of the top 3 QB in the league. If you don't have that you better have a dominate defense. Imo the overall talent level on this team has been a bit oversold the last 3-4 years. #12 bailed t his team out and when he had a down year it exposed a few flaws.

The defense lacks play makers sans Matthews. Lack of depth on defense has been an issue. On offense the WR group other than 87 was a bit exposed last year. Sure injuries had an impact but it exposed lack of speed and overall talent. OL when healthy is very good but again quality depth.

Bold Prediction
Last year was not an abberation. Enough talent is there to win the division but not enough for a deep run. Lack of quality depth will get exposed again. Davis turns out to be the best pick in the draft. Spriggs struggles.
 
Bold prediction: Much like Rodgers did in 2015 with "New York Bozo" in his pre-snap read, Rodgers will incorporate the name "Dick Klatt" in his stutter count.

(I would admonish Rodgers to "think of the kids" before he does that, though.)
 
The defense lacks play makers sans Matthews. Lack of depth on defense has been an issue.

i don't know, pack i thought the defense had one of their better years last year. not top five, but good enough to win if the offense was hitting on all cylinders. but with jordy out, monty sidelined down the stretch, cobb playing hurt and adams in some kind of sophomore slump, not to mention an overweight running back, we just didn't have much to work with.
 
i don't know, pack i thought the defense had one of their better years last year. not top five, but good enough to win if the offense was hitting on all cylinders. but with jordy out, monty sidelined down the stretch, cobb playing hurt and adams in some kind of sophomore slump, not to mention an overweight running back, we just didn't have much to work with.
Don't really disagree. But in the past Rodgers covered a lot of warts up. Defense still to me lacks talent.
 
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